RADIO
We are almost through 75% of the 2022 NFL regular season, and the fantasy playoffs are just a week away in many leagues. If your Week 13 was ruined by injuries like mine was, it will be extremely important to stay proactive this week and make some savvy moves.
For many of you, this will have to be done via the waiver wire, but for those of you that can still make trades, you've come to the right place. As I've stated for the past few weeks, though, my goal is to provide useful information regarding the rest-of-season outlook for four players, so you still may find it beneficial to read on even if your league's trade deadline has passed.
We'll get into the players to target in trades and those to trade away ahead of Week 14, but let's quickly review how last week's suggestions have panned out thus far.
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Last Week's Recap
Shockingly, Derrick Henry followed up a disappointing Week 12 with a nightmarish performance in Week 13. He has now averaged less than four yards per carry in four consecutive games. While his value on the trade market may have decreased, don't panic if you traded for King Henry last week. The Titans couldn't ask for a better schedule to get their star back on track as they will face the Jaguars, Chargers, and Texans over the next three weeks.
I recommended buying low on Deebo Samuel heading into an interesting matchup with the Miami Dolphins, and all things considered, this could've looked a lot worse. Jimmy Garoppolo went down with a serious foot injury early in the first quarter, but Samuel still managed six receptions for 58 yards on 10 targets from Brock Purdy.
I won't yet claim that Purdy is an upgrade for Samuel's fantasy value, but I'm not sure he's a downgrade either as the rookie looked for Deebo more than any of San Francisco's other offensive weapons. Purdy also flashed some real potential.
Watch this dart from Brock Purdy to Deebo Samuel. You couldn’t place it any better… Great concentration by Deebo to hang onto it as well. 🎯 #49ers pic.twitter.com/lwkI4Ym564
— Coach Yac 🗣 (@Coach_Yac) December 5, 2022
Trading away Adam Thielen after his huge Thanksgiving Day showing proved to be the right call as the veteran finished with just two receptions for 27 yards against the Jets. The Vikings have more difficult wide receiver matchups coming up, so Justin Jefferson and T.J. Hockenson are the only receiving threats on the team that should be relied on for fantasy purposes.
The Cardinals had a bye last week, so we'll have to wait and see how James Conner fares with an incredibly difficult stretch of opponents on his schedule. I still feel confident that now is the right time to capitalize on his elite workload.
I can't say that last week's article was an immediate success, but I would still double down on all four of these suggestions now, so hopefully, they come to fruition in the fantasy playoffs. Let's move on to Week 14.
Players to Target in Trades for Fantasy Football
Alvin Kamara, New Orleans Saints
This has been a true rollercoaster of a season for Saints running back Alvin Kamara. The five-time Pro Bowler had an awesome stretch of games between Weeks 5 and 8 but has struggled to find success ever since. He finished with his worst fantasy performance of the year on Monday night.
Alvin Kamara played 60% of the snaps with 12 carries for 26 yards and two catches for 11 yards on 3 targets in Week 13. Mark Ingram had more targets
He’s scored single-digit fantasy points in 4 of 5 - averaging 8.5 PPR PPG in that span
— Michael F. Florio (@MichaelFFlorio) December 6, 2022
The Saints' offense is bad, as is Kamara's usage as of late. To make matters worse, New Orleans is on bye this week. So why would I recommend trying to acquire him?
Honestly, if you're fighting to get into the playoffs, don't. If you have a top spot locked up, however, Kamara should be a priority trade target. The Saints' recent schedule has been absolutely brutal, as four of their last five opponents rank in the top-seven of all defenses against fantasy running backs this season.
Kamara will return from bye to face the Atlanta Falcons in Week 15, followed by the Cleveland Browns in Week 16. Not only will these be winnable games for the Saints, but both teams have been exploited by running backs in 2022. The Eagles will be his foe on fantasy championship week, and although they aren't quite as susceptible, they still represent a softer matchup when compared to what Kamara has been up against lately.
If Kamara is on the roster of a league mate clawing to get into the playoffs, they are almost certain to trade him for someone that can help this week. There has never been a better time to make an offer.
Amari Cooper, Cleveland Browns
In case you didn't hear, Deshaun Watson looked less-than-stellar in his regular-season debut with the Browns. Although they handled the Texans pretty easily, the credit must be given to Cleveland's defense and special teams, who combined to score all 27 of the team's points.
Although it isn't obvious when looking at his fantasy points for the week, Amari Cooper quietly established himself as Watson's go-to guy.
With Deshaun Watson under center, Amari Cooper was easily his favorite target: He saw 9 of a possible 21 targets for a 43% target share.
— JJ Zachariason (@LateRoundQB) December 5, 2022
For multiple reasons, we can expect the opportunities to translate to production over the next few weeks. For starters, Week 13 was Watson's first real action in almost two full years, in the worst possible environment - on the road against his former team. It should come as no shock at all that he looked a bit rusty.
What might come as a shock, though, is that the Texans are a top-10 pass defense this season, and the fifth-most difficult matchup for fantasy wide receivers. Of course, this is more a testament to how dreadful Houston's offense is since teams can beat them by simply running the ball. But there is something to be said about a defense that has only allowed two top-12 half-PPR finishes to wideouts through 13 weeks.
The overall point here is that the Watson and Cooper tandem should have much more success in the coming weeks. The Bengals will be a difficult divisional test in Week 14, but the Browns will have to throw to try and hang with Joe Burrow and company. The schedule will then open up dramatically for Cooper in the fantasy playoffs, with matchups against the Ravens, Saints, and Commanders.
Players to Trade Away for Fantasy Football
Drake London, Atlanta Falcons
Every year, rookie wide receivers seem to come on strong in the second half and become league winners. Unfortunately, I highly doubt this will be the case for Falcons first-round pick Drake London.
London got off to a hot start for his career but couldn't keep the momentum going through the middle of the season. He currently ranks as the WR36 in half-PPR points per game but has finished eight contests this year ranking outside the top-45 fantasy wideouts. The blame can hardly be put on London, though, as Atlanta has attempted just 23.1 passes per game, and Marcus Mariota has struggled to be effective through the air.
The rookie did put on a show in Week 13, however, tying his season-high in targets and surpassing his previous high of 86 receiving yards.
A career-high 95 yards for @DrakeLondon_ deserves all the #ProBowlVote RTs
📺 CBS pic.twitter.com/zVVkJTdfQl
— Atlanta Falcons (@AtlantaFalcons) December 5, 2022
The important context here is that the Falcons played the Pittsburgh Steelers, who rank as a bottom-six pass defense and surrender the third-most PPR fantasy points to wide receivers. His remaining opponents aren't necessarily intimidating, either, but there is no reason to believe that Atlanta will undergo a sudden change in offensive philosophy. Even though the Falcons trailed the Steelers for the entirety of the game, Mariota only attempted 24 passes.
The Falcons also have a bye in Week 14, so he can't possibly help your team this week. Unlike Kamara, London doesn't project to be a difference-making option in the fantasy playoffs, so dealing him after a big game and before a break sounds like the perfect time.
Devin Singletary, Buffalo Bills
The Bills are known for their high-flying pass attack far more than their ground game, but Devin Singletary has been solid with his touches nonetheless. Although he's never operated in a true workhorse role, Singletary played on over 50% of snaps in 12 straight games to start the season, even handling 70% or more of snaps in eight of them. This usage unexpectedly changed in Week 13.
James Cook & Devin Singletary both finished with over 11 HPPR points, but Cook's usage value was significantly higher this week
Week 13 RB Expected Fantasy Points (xFP):
▫️ Cook: 16.2
▫️ Singletary: 9.6For the first time this season, Cook finished as an RB1 in xFP/usage👇 pic.twitter.com/xvHFcsSMom
— Marvin Elequin (@FF_MarvinE) December 5, 2022
It's only one game, but rookie James Cook looked explosive against a stingy Patriots run defense. It also marked the second consecutive contest in which Cook saw five or more targets. I'm not predicting Cook to totally take over the Bills' backfield, but a split down the stretch definitely seems possible after he has impressed in limited opportunities.
Furthermore, Nyheim Hines, who the Bills acquired at the NFL trade deadline, earned his highest snap percentage with the team last week. A three-man running back committee, even in an efficient offense, is always something to avoid for fantasy.
The timeshare didn't prevent Singletary from having a productive fantasy day last Thursday as he was able to find the end zone early in the fourth quarter. This should be enough to keep your league mates interested in trading for him, even if it's as an extra piece in a package deal.
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