RADIO
If your fantasy league's trade deadline still hasn't passed, it's time to be aggressive and put the finishing touches on your roster to make a title run. Also, congratulations on being in a league fun enough to have such a late trade deadline or none at all.
Unfortunately, I am no longer able to make trades in any of my leagues, so make a few for me! If you're in the same boring boat as me, though, you still might find this week's column useful as I'll be diving into four players' upcoming schedules and detailing my thoughts on their fantasy values for the rest of the season.
Before we move into Week 13's trade targets, let's quickly review the immediate outcome of last week's suggestions.
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Last Week's Recap
If there's one thing we should know about the Washington Commanders' backfield, it's that we don't know who will lead it on a weekly basis. I wish I could go back and remind myself of this before advocating trading for Antonio Gibson. After out-touching Brian Robinson 21-to-15 in Week 11, Gibson played a complementary role in Week 12 and even ceded a receiving touchdown to the rookie. Washington could use a hot-hand approach going forward, but all hope is not lost for Gibson.
However, it needs to be noted that Gibson led the team in carries throughout the 1st half (6 to 5) and this rainy-weather game called for the bruiser back to see more touches.
Would view this as an opportune time to buy low on Gibson.
— Andrew Erickson™ (@AndrewErickson_) November 29, 2022
Taylor Heinicke attempted a season-low of 23 passes on Sunday as the Commanders were able to run all over Atlanta. Expect Gibson to see additional opportunities in more balanced contests.
Ja'Marr Chase did not suit up in Week 12, so hopefully, you were able to acquire him at an even lower price. He's expected to return this week, and in case you forgot, the Bengals have an excellent schedule for fantasy wide receivers through the end of the year.
For just the second time this season, I mentioned a quarterback as a trade candidate. This time, it was a sell-high suggestion as Tua Tagovailoa has one of the most difficult remaining QB schedules. Although he was able to easily find success against Houston, his performance didn't translate to a huge fantasy day as the Dolphins scored 30 quick points and pulled their franchise signal-caller in the third quarter. At the moment, you should have no regrets if you dealt him.
Saquon Barkley salvaged his Thanksgiving Day output with a touchdown but struggled on the ground for a second consecutive week and totaled only 52 yards from scrimmage. With two matchups against the Commanders' stout run defense in the next three weeks, Barkley's shortcomings could continue. Trading him for peak value still sounds like the right idea.
All in all, not a bad week. Let's keep it going, starting with some players that you should try to pry away from your leaguemates.
Players to Target in Trades for Fantasy Football
Derrick Henry, Tennessee Titans
Sometimes, I consider players in this section "buy-low" candidates, but there are also scenarios in which I'll recommend trading for someone at any cost. This is one of those scenarios.
Technically, Derrick Henry is coming off a bad game by his standards, so it's possible that you can get him at a slight discount. But I don't mind overpaying for a running back leading the league in touches per game with an absolute dream of a schedule to close out the season.
In the next four weeks, Henry will face three opponents ranking in the bottom half of NFL run defenses. The other is the Jacksonville Jaguars, who sneak just inside the top half at 15.
If your league has its championship in Week 17, be aware that the king will be taking on his favorite division rival in the semi-finals.
Derrick Henry’s last 4 games vs the Texans
892 Yards 9 TD
If you extrapolated a full 17 game season vs Houston he would have
3,791 Yards 38 TDpic.twitter.com/HUutkxUVRG
— Barstool Sportsbook (@BSSportsbook) October 31, 2022
As a reminder, Henry rumbled for 219 yards and two touchdowns against the Texans back in Week 8. With an enticing three weeks leading up to Week 16, Henry could very well carry your fantasy team through the playoffs. He won't come cheap, but if you could capitalize on Josh Jacobs' outpouring in Week 11, for example, I think you'd be wise to flip him for Henry.
Deebo Samuel, San Francisco 49ers
Needless to say, it's been a disappointing season for Deebo Samuel. After a WR3 overall finish in 2021, Samuel has just two top-12 weeks this year in half-PPR scoring.
In 10 games played in 2022, Samuel has 76 targets, good for an average of 7.6 targets per contest. He averaged this exact amount last season. The difference has been a lack of touchdowns and a noticeable dip in efficiency from 11.71 yards per target down to 6.72. The decline in rushing utilization hasn't helped, either.
So what could get Samuel back on track? Perhaps a bout with one of the best teams in the league that happens to employ numerous former teammates, one of whom has started bickering ahead of the matchup.
It’s reunion Sunday in Santa Clara with a lot of Dolphins returning to play 49ers including HC Mike McDaniel and RBs Raheem Mostert & Jeff Wilson.
More from @nflnetwork on Mostert/Deebo Samuel 🔥 added to the game & how Jeff Wilson’s presence will be felt heavily for both teams: pic.twitter.com/TbciYIv2cn
— Cameron Wolfe (@CameronWolfe) November 29, 2022
There is no doubt that Samuel will be motivated to perform in the midst of trash-talking, and the 49ers will certainly need to push the ball downfield and score to keep up with a Miami team averaging 28 points per game on the road.
Furthermore, if there was any time this season for San Francisco to involve Deebo in the backfield, it would be now.
After spraining an MCL in the season opener, Elijah Mitchell sprained his other MCL in Week 12 and is expected to miss the next six-to-eight weeks. Starter Christian McCaffrey is also dealing with a knee ailment of his own, and although it isn't expected to sideline him, the team could (and probably should) opt to limit his touches to keep him fresh for the playoffs. With no other proven healthy backs on the roster, the door is wide open for Samuel to get a few additional carries per game.
We've already discussed the upcoming Miami matchup, but Samuel's schedule for the rest of the season shouldn't scare off fantasy managers, either. This is especially true in Weeks 16 and 17 when the team will face the Commanders and Raiders, who have both struggled to contain opposing wideouts.
Samuel certainly fits the bill of a buy-low player this week, and acquiring him now could pay dividends in the fantasy playoffs.
Players to Trade Away for Fantasy Football
Adam Thielen, Minnesota Vikings
It doesn't feel like Adam Thielen has been particularly good for fantasy this year, but he's actually just outside of WR2 range in PPR formats. Still, the 32-year-old has seen a noticeable drop-off in production between last season and now. Despite tallying similar target numbers, Thielen is averaging 3.5 fewer fantasy points per game in 2022.
Fortunately for fantasy managers, Thielen posted his best outing of the year on Thanksgiving Day.
Adam Thielen handed Father Time a late notice in Week 12, turning back the clocks with a vintage receiving slash.
9 REC/10 TGT/61 YDS/1 TD
Week 12 marked his only WR1 outing this season. Also his only finish this year inside of the top 16 WR and just his 2nd inside the top 20.
— Matt Ward (@PsychWardFF) November 29, 2022
Hopefully, he wasn't on your bench, as Thielen didn't necessarily project well for what was anticipated to be a low-scoring affair.
This surprising showing is a screaming sell-high, marking the only game in which Thielen out-targeted T.J. Hockenson since the former Lions tight end arrived in Minnesota in Week 9. In the three-game span with Hockenson before Week 12, Thielen averaged 3.3 receptions for 47 yards and totaled zero touchdowns.
To further emphasize Thielen as a player to trade away now, let's take a look at his upcoming schedule. Minnesota will have the displeasure of facing the Jets, Colts, and Giants in three of the next four weeks. These three teams make up half of the top-six most difficult matchups for fantasy wide receivers this season. Gross.
He doesn't have a ton of standalone value, but adding Thielen to another piece on your roster to get a significant upgrade seems possible after his best game in almost a full year.
James Conner, Arizona Cardinals
I've seen a lot of discourse about James Conner's usage and production over the past three weeks. I'll admit, it's impressive, and his role in the Cardinals' offense looks as secure as ever.
Since James Conner retook the starter role in Week 10, he leads all RBs in snaps (90%), he’s the RB6 by expected fantasy points (18.0), and has handled 68 of the 76 (89.5%) backfield touches in this span.
— Graham Barfield (@GrahamBarfield) November 29, 2022
Yes, volume is king in fantasy, and Conner should see plenty of it down the stretch. But he won't help your team this week with Arizona on a bye, and his schedule leading into the fantasy championship is the toughest for any running back in the league.
The New England Patriots, who will travel to Arizona in Week 14, have allowed the fewest PPR fantasy points to running backs this season. The Cardinals will then go to Denver to face the Broncos, who have been better at defending the pass than the run but still hold opponents to fewer than 18 points per game. As the cherry on top, Conner will try to run on the Buccaneers in Week 16, who have surrendered only two top-12 RB finishes through 11 games.
Conner's value is as high as it has been all season after racking up 140 total yards and a receiving touchdown last week. He's a must-start player going forward based on sheer opportunity, but sending him in a deal for another RB2 that's already had his bye and has an easier remaining schedule sounds like a no-brainer.
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