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How about a little optimism for your week?
Tight end, a position notorious for being top-heavy, may be deep this season. Once again, there are reasons to be excited about the disappointments of past seasons.
Below, we discuss three tight ends who could and should bounce back and put up numbers equal to, or better, than they've previously accomplished.
Be sure to check all of our fantasy football rankings for 2024:- Quarterback fantasy football rankings
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- Wide receiver fantasy football rankings
- Tight end fantasy football rankings
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Kyle Pitts, Atlanta Falcons
Kyle Pitts is the name you expected to see in this article, right?
The Falcons tight end and former fourth overall pick racked up 1,026 receiving yards in his rookie season. Despite scoring one touchdown, it was a promising start to his professional career. In his two following seasons, Pitts combined for 1,023 yards and five scores. That's not the production needed from any first-round pick, let alone the highest-drafted tight end in history.
Then again, Pitts played his rookie season with Atlanta's all-time passing leader Matt Ryan. Following Ryan's departure, the ragtag group of Marcus Mariota, Desmond Ridder, and Taylor Heinicke were under center. A torn MCL limited Pitts to 10 games in 2022 and, while he played all 17 games in 2023, he admitted that he dealt with soreness and tightness in his surgically repaired knee throughout the season. He was limited to a 65.1% snap share, whether due to his knee issue or Arthur Smith's insistence on deploying multiple tight ends.
As long as he's recovered from his torn Achilles, Kirk Cousins is, at worst, comparable to Ryan as the best quarterback Pitts has played with in his young career. Cousins leans on tight ends like few signal-callers do. Nearly 27% of his pass attempts last season went to the position. T.J. Hockenson evolved into one of the best fantasy football tight ends with Cousins. Can Pitts do the same?
Yeah, Kirk Cousins might be the best thing to ever happen to Kyle Pitts
(via @AtlantaFalcons) pic.twitter.com/5frGwgQXNO
— kenny g. (@Gritz_Blitz) August 7, 2024
The Falcons will run an offense similar to the one Cousins captained in Minnesota. Offensive coordinator Zac Robinson came to Atlanta from the Los Angeles Rams, akin to the path Kevin O'Connell took to being the head coach of the Vikings. They won't be shy about sticking three receivers and Pitts on the field together. While his tight-end-leading aDOT (11.4 yards) might decline, so will his unrealized air yards. He led all tight ends with 479. Cousins will boost Pitts' career 57.5% catch rate.
ADP is a slight concern for those managers interested in rostering Pitts. Travis Kelce, Sam LaPorta, Mark Andrews, Trey McBride, and Dalton Kincaid are ahead of Pitts in the pecking order. George Kittle and Evan Engram are in the same range as Pitts. The Falcons tight end is being selected as high as the fifth round, a tad rich for my liking.
Pat Freiermuth, Pittsburgh Steelers
Kyle Pitts' 2021 draft class partner, Pat Freiermuth, had a different story in his rookie season. The yards (497) were low, but the touchdowns (seven) were high. Since then, the two have been eerily similar. Freiermuth combined for 1,040 yards and four touchdowns across 28 games in his second and third seasons. His per-game averages last season (2.7 receptions for 25.7 yards) were the lowest in his professional career.
Injuries played a part in Freiermuth's third-year decline, but the main culprit was quarterback play. Kenny Pickett was inaccurate, inefficient, and possessed an aversion to deep passes and touchdowns. While Russell Wilson is far from the MVP-caliber quarterback he was in Seattle, he's still noticeably better than Pickett. If Wilson doesn't work out, even Justin Fields supported Cole Kmet en route to a TE8 finish.
As for the rest of the offense, target allocation will look different in 2024. Setting aside the Brandon Aiyuk rumors (it's looking less likely that he'll be traded to Pittsburgh), George Pickens is the WR1 and will command the most looks. The first in the pecking order last season (in terms of targets per game) was Diontae Johnson, now a member of the Carolina Panthers. 6.7 targets per game (and maybe more if the offense shows noticeable improvement) are up for grabs.
Again, as long as Aiyuk remains in the Bay Area, Pittsburgh did not add an equivalent replacement for Johnson. Ex-Ram and Falcon Van Jefferson is the favorite to begin the season as the WR2. Rookie Roman Wilson and Calvin Austin III are also in the mix. There's little stopping Freiermuth from being the secondary target and earning a chunk of the looks vacated by Johnson's departure.
Those aren't the only changes in the Steel City. Arthur Smith, the head coach for the Atlanta Falcons since 2021, is now calling the plays in Pittsburgh. I know what you're thinking; Pitts was a disappointment with Smith, so why would Freiermuth be better? Smith used more tight ends than Pitts in Atlanta (partially due to injury). Jonnu Smith was fantasy-relevant on more than one occasion last year. The Falcons led the NFL with a 34% tight-end target share last year. Darnell Washington and Connor Heyward shouldn't siphon too many looks from Freiermuth, as Jonnu Smith did to Pitts a year ago.
Pat Freiermuth ran a route on 7 of Justin Fields' 9 dropbacks (78%) last night.
I'm not worried about the *snap* rotation with the other TEs. We care about routes.
— Jared Smola (@SmolaDS) August 10, 2024
Freiermuth has a top-12 upside and isn't being drafted like it. The former Nittany Lion is the 15th tight end coming off the board, according to Yahoo! ADP, near the end of the 10th round. If you're punting tight end in your draft, Freiermuth should be your late-round target.
Hunter Henry, New England Patriots
Does a wide receiver room of Demario Douglas, rookies Ja'Lynn Polk and Javon Baker, post-ACL tear Kendrick Bourne, K.J. Osborn, and Tyquan Thornton excite you? Are there any target hogs? It's possible, but we've seen little from this group before (side note: Douglas is a great value at his ADP).
Enter Hunter Henry, who endured career-low marks in yards (419), yards per catch (10), and yards per game (29.9) on 42 total receptions. Although he played on the league's worst-scoring team in 2023, Henry still snagged six touchdown passes. Finding the end zone has always been a strong element of Henry's game.
Hunter Henry is so good in the red zone. pic.twitter.com/8DntjlMYJd
— Mike Kadlick (@mikekadlick) August 5, 2024
Like Pitts and Freiermuth, Henry will catch passes from a new quarterback under a new offensive scheme in 2024. Veteran Jacoby Brissett and rookie Drake Maye are in the midst of a training-camp battle for the right to be the Week 1 starter. Right now, it sounds like Brissett is the favorite, which is what fantasy managers rostering Henry should be rooting for. Brissett, originally drafted by New England, only played spot duty for Washington a year ago. We'll have to look back at his 2022 stats to paint the picture.
The 31-year-old started 11 games for the Cleveland Browns while Deshaun Watson served his suspension. In that time frame, David Njoku was the TE7 on a per-game basis (10.8 PPR points) and Brissett targeted tight ends on over 28% of his passes. That's partially by design in an Alex Van Pelt-led offense. He and Brissett are reuniting in New England.
Henry doesn't cost much of anything in fantasy drafts. Yahoo! has an ADP in the 11th round. However, he's outside of the top 12 in the rankings, so it's reasonable to expect he'll slip further. He does have a matchup in the green (if we're looking at defensive stats from last season) against Cincinnati in Week 1.
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