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Robert deciphers the fantasy football tight end landscape to identify breakouts and to help avoid players who are fool's gold for Week 3 (2023). Taking a deep dive into the advanced statistics can help get out in front of trends.
In half-PPR scoring, we have exactly two tight ends with more than 17 total points. Hunter Henry is one of those two tight ends, so basically the tight end position is going exactly how we expected, right? Just pure, ugly chaos.
Mark Andrews and Travis Kelce both missed Week 1. Darren Waller was limited in Week 1 and Dallas Goedert threw up a goose egg. It’s been a really rough start for the elite group of tight ends, but in general, this position is hurting badly. There are just so few players making a difference when it comes to fantasy football.
This article is aimed at helping you wade through the shark-infested and freezing-temperature waters that is the tight end position. It’s not an easy task, but at the end of the day, we want to chase opportunity. For tight ends, that doesn’t always mean targets. With this position, fluky stat lines happen all the time. The goal here is to figure out what is just noise, ignore it, and find the stuff that matters so that we can identify good or rather kind of good players moving forward.
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Weeks 1-2 Statistical Review
With receivers we can often just look at raw target data and target share to get a pretty good idea of which players will be good and which ones we should be chasing. With tight end, that’s not quite as effective because with such small numbers, even just 1-2 extra or fewer targets can make a difference in target share numbers. Instead, we want to focus on opportunity, which not only includes raw targets and target share but also snap share, the raw number of routes run, and route participation rate. Below is a table based on the first two weeks of the NFL season. These statistics are based on the numbers and stats found at PFF, which is an incredible site filled with amazing data.
| Player | Snap Share | Route Participation | Routes Run | Target Share | Targets | Red Zone Targets |
| Sam LaPorta | 82% | 78.1% | 57 | 15.7% | 11 | 1 |
| Kyle Pitts | 66% | 88.7% | 55 | 16.1% | 8 | 1 |
| Hayden Hurst | 54% | 63.0% | 51 | 13.8% | 10 | 2 |
| Dalton Schultz | 76% | 80.7% | 88 | 12.0% | 11 | 2 |
| Irv Smith Jr. | 65% | 75.3% | 58 | 12.7% | 9 | 1 |
| David Njoku | 80% | 82.4% | 70 | 10.2% | 7 | 1 |
| Evan Engram | 74% | 82.4% | 70 | 17.3% | 13 | 0 |
| Kylen Granson | 63% | 72.0% | 59 | 13.8% | 10 | 2 |
| Juwan Johnson | 78% | 79.7% | 63 | 11.6% | 8 | 0 |
| Chigoziem Okonkwo | 76% | 71.0% | 49 | 11.3% | 6 | 0 |
| Zach Ertz | 72% | 85.1% | 57 | 29.6% | 18 | 2 |
| Logan Thomas** | 60% | 60.9% | 53 | 16.7% | 11 | 2 |
| George Kittle | 82% | 81.3% | 52 | 16.3% | 9 | 1 |
| Pat Freiermuth* | 62% | 63.1% | 53 | 6.0% | 5 | 3 |
| Cade Otton | 97% | 77.3% | 58 | 13.2% | 9 | 1 |
| T.J. Hockenson | 80% | 78.5% | 73 | 19.3% | 17 | 3 |
| Luke Musgrave | 81% | 81.0% | 47 | 13.4% | 7 | 1 |
| Cole Kmet | 85% | 80.0% | 68 | 19.8% | 13 | 2 |
| Durham Smythe | 98% | 87.8% | 65 | 12.8% | 10 | 1 |
| Gerald Everett | 56% | 46.5% | 40 | 8.2% | 6 | 1 |
| Dallas Goedert | 94% | 91.3% | 63 | 16.7% | 8 | 0 |
| Hunter Henry | 85% | 81.0% | 85 | 13.9% | 13 | 2 |
| Tyler Higbee | 92% | 85.9% | 85 | 10.3% | 10 | 1 |
| Darren Waller* | 72% | 69.3% | 61 | 19.1% | 13 | 2 |
| Jake Ferguson | 65% | 50.8% | 33 | 19.3% | 11 | 8 |
| Tyler Conklin | 83% | 76.3% | 45 | 13.4% | 7 | 0 |
| Dawson Knox | 77% | 71.9% | 64 | 11.6% | 9 | 3 |
| Dalton Kincaid | 69% | 67.4% | 60 | 13.0% | 10 | 2 |
| Mark Andrews | 79% | 84.6% | 33 | 24.0% | 8 | 1 |
| Adam Trautman | 77% | 65.8% | 52 | 8.9% | 6 | 3 |
| Mike Gesicki | 56% | 58.1% | 61 | 9.9% | 9 | 0 |
| Michael Mayer | 45% | 33.3% | 18 | 2.1% | 1 | 0 |
Making Sense of Injury-Impacted Players
Gesicki, Freiermuth, and Waller (*) were all limited in Week 1. Logan Thomas (**) left Week 2 in the first half due to a concussion. Below you can see what their Week 1 and Week 2 splits look like.
| Player | Snap Share Wk 1 | Snap Share Wk 2 | Route Participation Wk 1 | Route Participation Wk 2 | Target Share Wk 1 | Target Share Wk 2 |
| Darren Waller | 53.5% | 89.7% | 52.2% | 86.3% | 16.6% | 21.6% |
| Logan Thomas | 81.6% | 39.7% | 76.1% | 46.6% | 25.8% | 7.6% |
| Mike Gesicki | 41.2% | 71.6% | 41.3% | 78.7% | 5.5% | 14.2% |
| Pat Freiermuth | 50.7% | 75.9% | 50.0% | 84.3% | 8.6% | 3.3% |
Based on Week 2, the hype around Waller appears to be legit. He had a 21.6% target share and had an elite 86.3% route participation rate. The group of receivers New York employs leaves a lot to be desired, which was part of the reason fantasy managers were so high on Waller. As long as he stays healthy, with this type of utilization and volume, he should have no problem finishing inside the top five at the position.
Thomas and Gesicki also saw drastic Week 1 and 2 splits. While Thomas may not suit up in Week 3 due to a concussion, his Week 1 utilization and volume had the look of a player who would flirt with TE1 numbers. If you’re hurting at the tight end position and can hold Thomas for the week, he’s worth an add. The way the team deployed him in Week 1 could very well make him an every-week starter.
"Knowing how vital the Tight End is to this offense..."
Logan Thomas led Washington in targets today with 8 (25.8% target share).
The last time Thomas was healthy (2020), he led the position in route share (91%) and ranked 5th in FPG (13.8) with 16.3 FPG over his final 6 games https://t.co/XPMfGtn5Cr
— Scott Barrett (@ScottBarrettDFB) September 10, 2023
While the ceiling may not be that high for Gesicki, his route participation and target share in Week 2 are going to make him a worthwhile streamer. He’s run 96.9% of his routes from a wide receiver position, which is something fantasy managers should love. With the suspect receiver room in New England, we could be looking at two fantasy-relevant tight ends.
Freiermuth has gotten off to a dreadful start. He has just five targets on the season and his target share actually got worse in Week 2 despite running a route on 84% of the team’s dropbacks and that was with Diontae Johnson on IR. The team has started the season against two elite defenses in San Francisco and Cleveland, so an easier slate of opponents should help and he’s got that in Week 3. The Steelers face off against the Raiders who have given up the fifth-most points to opposing tight ends this season. With Johnson still out, Freiermuth fully healthy, and an excellent Week 3 matchup, those brave enough have good reason to start him again this weekend.
Ugh… You’re Gonna Make Me Do It, Aren’t You?
Okay, let’s talk about Zach Ertz. Trust me, I did not want to do this. I was hoping the Cardinals would trade or cut him and give second-year player, Trey McBride the reins. Instead, they’ve pretty much gone and made the 32-year-old tight end coming off a torn ACL and MCL the focal point of their passing offense.
The good news is that he has 18 targets, which is the most among TEs. He has a 29.6% target share and he’s averaging 6.9 half-PPR PPG without having found the end zone. He’s running a route on an elite 85% of his team’s dropbacks. That kind of volume and utilization officially means we need to pay attention to him.
Zach Ertz ranks among TEs:
*Targets per game: 1st (9)
*Target share: 1st (31%)
*Air yards share: 2nd (31%)
*WOPR: 1st (0.64)
*TPRR: 3rd (0.33)
*Routes run rate: 5th (85%)All at age 32 coming off of a torn ACL.
— Sam Hoppen (@SamHoppen) September 19, 2023
However, it’s important to keep your expectations in check. Of 34 tight ends with at least six targets this season, Ertz ranks 28th in yards per target, 29th in yards per reception, and 32nd in yards after the catch per reception. Arizona ranks 24th in pass attempts, 27th in passing yards, and 29th in passing touchdowns. While Ertz’s floor may seem appealing, there’s virtually no upside. The return of Kyler Murray could certainly help that, but until he comes back Ertz is a boring TE2.
It’s a Trap!!!
Jake Ferguson is not who you think he is. Yes, his target share is in the top five. Yes, his 11 targets are tied for seventh. However, his 50.8% route participation rate is 30th among the 32 tight ends listed above. Only Gerald Everett and Michael Mayer’s are worse and they’re only included here to show fantasy managers they can be dropped and that they’re not to be trusted.
He’s run just 33 routes in total. In two games. Andrews ran 33 routes in Week 2 after not playing in Week 1. Of the 32 tight ends listed above, only Ferguson and Mayer have fewer than 40 routes run among tight ends who played both weeks.
Right now, he has a 33.3% target per route run average (TPRR). Last year, Andrews and Kelce were at 28%. Engram and Goedert was at 21%. Kittle was at 22%. Schultz, the Cowboys’ primary tight end last year was at 23%. That number is eventually going to come crashing down and when it does, the floor is literally going to be zero points. If he’s running just 16 routes per game like he’s currently doing and his TPRR drops to 23% like Schultz had last season, that’s just 3.7 targets. That’s a major yikes.
Too Many Mouths to Feed
There are a handful of tight ends with really encouraging snap shares and route participation rate, but whose teams unfortunately just have too many (better) pass-catchers for these guys to make a difference. That doesn’t necessarily mean we should be avoiding them at all costs (they all make decent streamers in good matchups), but they can’t be trusted in starting lineups right now. However, if an injury happens to hit one of the receivers, these guys could become interesting.
Juwan Johnson of the Saints, Dalton Schultz of the Texans, and Irv Smith Jr. of the Bengals all have route participation rates north of 75%. Schultz and Johnson have 76% and 78% snap shares, respectively. The opportunity is there. Unfortunately, the trio of receivers on all three teams has made it impossible for any of these players to get consistent volume. All three players have target shares below 13%. This trio can safely be sent to the waiver wire, but if there’s an injury to any of the top three receivers on their respective teams, they’d get a sizable boost. Until then, they can be ignored.
Team target share by position versus how those teams targeted each position in 2022. Small sample size, but interesting nonetheless. pic.twitter.com/tFoxGmo6VA
— JJ Zachariason (@LateRoundQB) September 19, 2023
Looking at the tweet above, you can see just how much these three respective offenses are targeting their receiver positions. New Orleans is at 78% (!!!), while Houston and Cincinnati are right around 70%. That kind of volume being funneled to the receiver position is going to make it virtually impossible for any tight end to carve out a big enough piece of the pie to be fantasy-relevant. These guys either need to be cut, need a receiver injury, or need an absolutely insane touchdown rate. The latter two are bad bets, making the best option to cut them.
Alphas Gonna Alpha…
Kittle and Goedert are two of the biggest tight end names in fantasy football, but neither player has done much through two weeks. Their role and utilization haven’t been the problem. Both Kittle and Goedert, have played 82% and 94% of their team’s snaps respectively, and have run a route on 81% and 91% of their team’s dropbacks. That’s excellent!
Unfortunately, Kittle is competing with targets with not only Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk but also with elite running back, Christian McCaffrey. Samuel has 16 targets (29.6% target share) and Aiyuk has 14 targets (25.9%) after being injured in Week 2 and not playing a full allotment of snaps. That leaves Kittle, at best, as the No. 3 option, but even then, he’s splitting with CMC. Kittle has nine targets to his eight. Kittle will have some monster games, but it’s going to be very inconsistent.
Goedert finds himself in a very similar position. While the Eagles don’t have a running back like CMC, they do have two legit No. 1 alpha receivers in A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith. They have 16 (28.5% target share) and 15 (26.7%) targets respectively. Anytime you have two players commanding over 55% of the passing volume, it’s going to be incredibly difficult for whoever is the No. 3 to be a consistent contributor.
Both Kittle and Goedert should be downgraded until we see something change. The problem, without an injury, it’s hard to envision either situation changing all that much. Fantasy managers need to expect a lot more of a boom or bust player than they were expecting when they drafted either tight end.
In Baker We Trust…?
Baker Mayfield has been through the wringer in recent seasons. Cleveland got rid of him, but looking back at his splits pre- and post-shoulder injury shows a distinctly different quarterback. He bounced around with Carolina and with the Rams last season before signing in Tampa Bay where the offensive coordinator, Dave Canales, was part of the resurgence of Geno Smith’s career in Seattle. Through two weeks, Mayfield is doing his own impersonation of that.
Baker Mayfield in Weeks 1-2:
EPA per dropback: +0.18 (No. 8 among 33 qualified QB
PFF passing grade: 80.3 (No. 3)
CPOE: +6.3% (No. 9)
Passer rating: 105.1 (No. 6)
Adjusted completion rate: 78.7% (No. 11)
Yards per attempt: 7.4 (No. 10)— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) September 19, 2023
One player who hasn’t yet cashed in on Mayfield’s play is Cade Otton. However, his role, the play of Mayfield, and the surprising effectiveness of this passing offense make him someone fantasy managers should keep their eye on. Through two weeks, he has a 97% snap share, which is one of the highest marks among tight ends this season. His route participation is also at a healthy 77%.
With the season-ending injury to No. 3 receiver, Russell Gage, there’s a chance for Otton to carve out a role as Mayfield’s preferred target behind Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. That hasn’t happened yet, although he did just finish Week 2 with six targets, six receptions, and 41 yards, indicating he might be moving in the right direction.
He’s not someone you need to add to your roster right now, but he has a very appealing Week 3 matchup against the Eagles. They’ve given up 652 passing yards and seven passing touchdowns through two weeks, having been carved up by Mac Jones and Kirk Cousins. Not only that, but Henry Henry was the TE1 against the Eagles and Hockenson was the TE1 when he played Philadelphia. If nothing else, Otton is an excellent streaming option this week.
I May Have Jumped the Gun…
If you’ve read the first edition of this article, entered RotoBaller’s discord chat at any time for any start/sit questions, or ventured into the world of Reddit to read any of my posts on last week’s article, you’ll know I’ve been crazy high on Luke Musgrave. I’m here to say that I may have jumped the gun. Don’t get me wrong, I’m very high on the rookie still. I’m not giving up hope, but expectations do need to be tempered.
While his 81% snap share and his 81% route participation rate are elite and exactly where we need them to be to have the possibility of a top-12 finish, the number of routes he’s run simply has not been. Through two weeks, he’s run just 47 routes. For reference, Engram is at 70, Njoku is at 70, Hockenson is at 73, Kmet is at 68 for goodness sake, and Henry is at 85. Of the 32 tight ends I’ve listed above, just six have run fewer than 50 routes.
Pace over expected leaders:
*Packers moving at a slogging pace even without Rodgers
*Two teams with young QBs - Indy and Houston - moving with some urgency, perhaps trying to catch teams off guard(?)
*Todd Monken bringing a fast-paced, pass-heavy offense to Baltimore, yltsi pic.twitter.com/GHQT4kt3AF— Sam Hoppen (@SamHoppen) September 19, 2023
I hoped with the quarterback change that the Packers would increase the tempo of their offense, but they are still the slowest-moving offense in the NFL. That limits their overall play volume and specifically, it lowers the number of pass plays. Through two weeks, the Packers have just 52 pass attempts (29th) and 377 passing yards (23rd). Their pace of play and limited passing volume is negating his excellent utilization rates and that’s not even factoring in the fact that No. 1 receiver, Christian Watson is due back in Week 3. We need to dial back the Musgrave hype until this offense operates with some urgency or starts throwing the ball more. Until then, he’s nothing more than a weekly streamer in the right matchup.
Exhibit A of the Dangers of Small Sample Sizes
Chig Okonkwo was an advanced statistic darling last season, albeit on a very limited sample size. He was elite in yards per route run, targets per route run, yards per reception, you name it, he was up there. However, he did all that on just 46 targets, which isn't to say we should just throw it out and ignore it, but entering the 2023 NFL season, Okonkwo was one of the biggest darlings of the fantasy community. Through two weeks he looks like waiver wire fodder.
His 76% snap share isn't bad, but it isn't great either. His 71% route participation rate is okay, but ultimately it's disappointing, especially considering the limited passing volume he's already dealing with in Tennessee. Due to the lack of volume, that number needs to be closer to 80%. His 33% target per route run rate he had last year is currently at just 12.2%. The addition of star receiver DeAndre Hopkins and second-year player, Treylon Burks have sapped all of the potential out of Okonkwo's ballon. Through two weeks he has just six targets and a lowly 11.3% target share.
Tennessee ranks just 25th in pass attempts, 22nd in passing yards, and 29th in touchdowns. Fantasy managers knew going into the season that Tennessee wasn't going to be a pass-heavy offense, but the acquisition of Hopkins and Okonkwo's role not increasing as much as it needed to has left him being an empty promise. At this time, Okonkwo doesn't even have the look of an appealing streamer. At this time, fantasy managers would best be served by cutting ties with him, or at least moving forward with a plan to stream the position.
How Hard Is It To Get Your Best Players the Ball?
There are offenses across the league that are mind-boggling. Andy Reid has no problem scheming plays for Travis Kelce even though he's all they got and the defense knows he's all they got. Same thing with Sean McVay and Cooper Kupp, Matt LaFleur and Davante Adams (when he was in Green Bay), or Kyle Shanahan and just about anyone he wants, and Mike McDaniel and Tyreek Hill. We see this all over the league as good coaches simply find a way to get their best players the football. It sounds so simple yet some coaches are just terrible at it. Then there's Arthur Smith who seems to actively try to not get his best players the football. At this point, I get the frustration for fantasy managers rostering Kyle Pitts.
Falcons target leaders Weeks 1-2:
Bijan Robinson (11)
Mack Hollins (10)
Drake London (8)
Kyle Pitts (8)
Jonnu Smith (6) 🙃— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) September 20, 2023
Mack Hollins is 30 years old and this is his sixth season in the NFL. He has exactly one season with more than 20 catches and exactly one season with more than 230 yards. This is the guy that has more targets than top-10 picks Drake London and Kyle Pitts. This is so bad it's funny. All you can do is laugh and cry. Unlike last year though when we could at least hold our hat on an elite target share and target per route run rate, we can do no such thing through two weeks. Pitts has just a 16% target share and a 14.5% target per route run rate. On the plus side, Smith is actually letting him run routes, I guess. His route participation is at almost 89%, so that's fantastic, but why is he not getting the ball? Is it the offense? Is it Desmond Ridder?
In any case, it's impossible to trust Pitts right now. In fact, it's getting hard to even roster him. The Falcons are 30th in pass attempts and 28th in passing yards. You combine those lowly volume numbers with how infrequently Pitts is being targeted and if his name was anything other than Kyle Pitts, drafting him, or rostering him would be a move that could make you the laughingstock of your fantasy football league. At this time, the only value that Pitts possesses is his name.
The Falcons had an easier opponent in Week 1 they were able to play defense and run the ball. Then in Week 2, they faced the Packers who have had terrible run defenses for years so they didn't really need to open the playbook. They weren't forced to play from behind. In Weeks 3 and 4, Atlanta will play the Lions and Jaguars. These two teams should be able to score on their defense and play an up-tempo, high-scoring game that should, in theory, force the Falcons to throw the ball more. For that reason, fantasy managers should give him two more weeks. If it doesn't happen in their next two games, then it's not going to happen.
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