Fantasy Football Tight End Preparation for Week 15

Rob looks for tight end rankings sleepers for fantasy football Week 15 (2023). He identifies tight end breakouts and avoids while diving into advanced statistics.

Welcome to the playoff edition of tight end preparation. The tight end position is often forgotten about or thrown aside due to the fact that after the first five players at the position, the difference between the rest is insignificant. While that may be true, paying attention to certain statistics and matchups can provide a slight advantage. With the fantasy playoffs starting, gaining any advantage, no matter how small, should be chased and taken seriously.

It has been a long season, especially with regard to quarterback injuries. The loss of some of the very best quarterbacks in the league has caused a tidal effect down the tight end position. While players may be tempted to add and start Gerald Everett tonight with Keenan Allen out, I would highly advise you not to do that. In fact, Everett is not even in my top-20 tight ends for Week 15.

In this article, we'll be addressing some changing trends at the tight end position. We'll also be looking at some of the most important stats for fantasy managers to look at when valuing tight ends. This article will also include my weekly rankings and transactions fantasy managers should be looking to make with tight ends. This will include players to add and cut. If you have any tight end-related questions, don't hesitate to message me on X @RobFFSlayer. Let's get to Week 15's edition of Tight End Preparation.

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Weeks 1-14 Statistical Review

With receivers, we can often look at raw target data and target share to get a pretty good idea of which players will be productive and which ones we should be chasing. With the tight end position, that’s not quite as effective because with smaller numbers, even just 1-2 extra or fewer targets can make a difference in target share numbers.

Instead, we want to focus on opportunity, which includes raw targets, target share, snap share, the raw number of routes run, and route participation rate. Below is a table based on nine weeks of the NFL season. These statistics are based on the numbers and stats found at PFF, which is an incredible site filled with amazing data.

Stash Darren Waller

Waller went on IR back in Week 9 so he's eligible to return whenever. He was limited in practice on Wednesday and there's the possibility he's back this week. While fantasy managers can't start him with confidence this week, he could become a strong starter in Weeks 16 and 17, which makes him a player fantasy managers should be stashing. Even in a limited role, Waller's utilization back when he was healthy gives him the potential to still be a top-12 option at the position just because of how dire the tight end position has become.

TE Darren Waller (hamstring) remained hopeful to be activated off injured reserve this week. He said he’s feeling good.

Doesn’t see a full 60-snap workload likely vs. Saints this week, but thinks he can possibly contribute a good chunk.

— Jordan Raanan (@JordanRaanan) December 13, 2023

Despite missing five games, Waller is still third in targets, second in receptions, and second in receiving yards on the Giants. This team is desperately looking for consistent pass-catchers, and that's who Waller was for them before getting hurt. Among tight ends this season, Waller has the third-highest target share and the fourth-highest target per game average. This is despite being on a snap count in Week 1 and only playing 57% of the snaps and then being injured in Week 8 and playing just 25%. Needless to say, had he played a full allotment of snaps in both of those contests, his numbers would look even stronger.

Unlike most tight ends, Waller wasn't just a dump-off or safety valve. He was used down the field. Among tight ends, he has the highest air yard share at 26.3%. His average depth of target, 8.3 yards, ranks fifth. While Waller wasn't as efficient as he had been in previous years with the Raiders, he was still getting the job done well enough. His 1.55 yards per route run average ranks 11th. If we eliminate the points he scored in his final game, when he played just 25% of the snaps, Waller had an 8.8 half-PPR PPG average in seven contests. That would rank as the TE9 this season.

Not only does his utilization in the first eight games of the season show a dependable and strong fantasy asset, but his schedule over the final three weeks of the season is spectacular. This week the Giants play against the Saints, who are giving up the 11th- most half-PPR points to tight ends this season at 10.5. In Week 16, he'll face the Eagles, who are giving up 10.2 PPG to tight ends, the 13th-most. In Week 17, he gets the Rams, who are giving up 12.0 PPG, the third-highest in the NFL.

Do Not Stress About the Return of Dawson Knox

Some fantasy managers were worried about what the return of Knox would mean for Dalton Kincaid. Earlier in the season before Knox's wrist injury, these two were splitting time and effectively hurting each other. In Week 14, however, those concerns proved to be irrelevant. Kincaid played 60 of the team's 77 snaps compared to Knox's 36. When Knox was active early in the year, Kincaid's route participation would fluctuate weekly.

This provided him with no consistency. In Week 1, his route participation was 82%, but then dropped to 56% in Week 2. His route participation rose again in Week 3, up to 75% before dropping down to 60% in Week 5. Despite Knox's return to the field this past weekend, Kincaid maintained a 93% route participation, an elite rate. While the production in terms of fantasy points wasn't there, the volume was. He finished with eight targets and five receptions. Unfortunately, he was limited to just 21 yards. Knox, however, ran just 17 routes out of 49 dropbacks. He finished with three targets, three receptions, and 36 yards.

Kincaid had a 23% target share and has shown himself to be a weapon in the passing game. Given the state of pass-catchers behind Stefon Diggs, there's no reason to believe that Knox will negatively impact Kincaid's fantasy value moving forward. Not after what he's shown thus far in Knox's absence. Fantasy managers should continue to value Kincaid as a top-seven tight end and a must-start player for the rest of the fantasy football playoffs.

Stash Greg Dulcich

Dulcich has barely seen the field this season. He injured his hamstring in the very first game of the season and was subsequently placed on IR. After being out for four games, he returned in Week 6 and immediately re-injured the same hamstring. Once again, Dulcich was put on IR. He was eligible to return in Week 13 and started working off to the start before last weekend's game. Denver just recently opened up his 21-day practice window, which insinuates a return is in sight.

This isn’t the first time he’s struggled with this same hamstring injury. He was on IR last year to start the season before first appearing in Week 6 after having missed the first five games. His rookie season ended early to you guessed it, a hamstring injury.

All of that certainly makes him a gamble, but how he performed in 10 games last year as a rookie makes him worth the gamble. This is true primarily for teams who are streaming tight ends and are looking for a consistent starter. Dulcich, theoretically, has that level of upside.

As you can see from the numbers above, Dulcich was very good as a rookie. An 84% route participation rate is elite. A 17% target share is very good as well. His per-game averages over 17 games equals 94 targets, 56 receptions, and 699 yards. He did that as a rookie while Russell Wilson was doing his best Zach Wilson impersonation, first-year head coach Nathaniel Hackett was doing his Urban Meyer impersonation, and the Broncos were one of the very worst offenses in the NFL. Pretty impressive stuff!

With Dulcich’s rookie performance and the bleak play Denver has received from their tight ends so far this year, he could walk into a sizable role upon return. Jerry Jeudy has struggled mightily this season and it’s certainly possible that Dulcich could find himself as Wilson’s No. 2 target behind Courtland Sutton.

There’s an upside here and because of that, he’s worth a speculative add. If he's activated to the 53-man roster this week, it would be incredibly risky to trust him in his first week back and unfortunately, he has a very difficult matchup in Week 16 against the Patriots. They are allowing the fifth-fewest points to tight ends this season at just 6.8 half-PPR PPG. However, in Week 17, Denver plays against the Chargers, which is a very appealing matchup. They are giving up the 12th-most points to tight ends at 10.4.

By then, fantasy managers will know what kind of role Dulcich will have and he'll have had time to work himself back into the offense, assuming he returns this week or next. It might still be a gamble, but at tight end, that's true for almost everyone.

Week 15 Tight End Rankings

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