Fantasy Football Tight End Preparation for Week 11

Travis Kelce continues to dominate his position in a way no other player has managed to do, respective to their specific position. Once again, he leads all tight ends in PPG average. He is currently 1.5 PPG better than T.J. Hockenson and almost two points per game better than Mark Andrews. This trio represents the elite tier of tight ends.

But there is a second tier, just underneath them, filled with three youngsters who appear ready to carry this position in the next few years. Sam LaPorta, Dalton Kincaid, and yes, Trey McBride have all looked fantastic over the past few years. If you’re wondering if McBride deserves to be mentioned with these two elite rookies, he absolutely does. He’s been downright dominant since Zach Ertz went on IR and is a top-six tight end for the rest of the season.

After these six, however, the position falls off a bit of a cliff. Evan Engram, George Kittle, Dalton Schultz, Dallas Goedert (when healthy), and Jake Ferguson all make for excellent weekly options. However, this group either lacks the upside of the young trio above or the weekly consistency. This article is here to help you decipher the tight end position while primarily focusing on this third tier and those beneath them, which often include our streamers.

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Weeks 1-10 Statistical Review

With receivers, we can often look at raw target data and target share to get a pretty good idea of which players will be productive and which ones we should be chasing. With the tight end position, that’s not quite as effective because with smaller numbers, even just 1-2 extra or fewer targets can make a difference in target share numbers.

Instead, we want to focus on opportunity, which includes raw targets, target share, snap share, the raw number of routes run, and route participation rate. Below is a table based on nine weeks of the NFL season. These statistics are based on the numbers and stats found at PFF, which is an incredible site filled with amazing data.

Add Greg Dulcich

Dulcich has barely seen the field this season. He injured his hamstring in the very first game of the season and was subsequently placed on IR. After being out for four games, he returned in Week 6 and immediately reinjured the same hamstring. Once again, Dulcich was put on IR. He’s now eligible to return in Week 12.

This isn’t the first time he’s struggled with this same hamstring injury. He was on IR last year to start the season before first appearing in Week 6 after having missed the first five games. His rookie season ended early to you guessed it, a hamstring injury. All of that certainly makes him a gamble, but how he performed in 10 games last year as a rookie makes him worth the gamble. This is true primarily for teams who are streaming tight ends and are looking for a consistent starter. Dulcich, theoretically, has that level of upside.

As you can see from the numbers above, Dulcich was very good as a rookie. An 84% route participation rate is elite. A 17% target share is very good as well. His per-game averages, over 17 games, equals 94 targets, 56 receptions, and 699 yards. He did that as a rookie while Russell Wilson was doing his best Zach Wilson impersonation, first-year head coach Nathaniel Hackett was doing his Urban Meyer impersonation, and the Broncos were one of the very worst offenses in the NFL. Pretty impressive stuff!

This season, Adam Trautman has been the primary starting tight end for the Broncos. He’s played on 80% of the team’s snaps and has an 86% route participation rate. However, he’s offered absolutely nothing in the passing game. Through 10 games he has 20 targets, 13 receptions, and 84 yards. This is what makes Dulcich appealing. The tight end the team has been using has offered nothing, but there’s more.

This past Monday against the Bills, Trautman’s role shrunk. He played on just 64% of the snaps and ran a route on just 49% of the team’s dropbacks. Both numbers are significantly below his seasonal averages. Chris Manhertz and Lucas Krull both saw increased roles. Could this be a sign the team is done with Trautman’s disappointing play? If it is, I’d say it’s about time. But coming to that conclusion just two weeks before Dulcich can return is, at the very least, interesting.

With Dulcich’s rookie performance, the bleak play Denver has received from their tight ends so far this year, and Trautman’s declining role means that Dulcich could walk into a sizable role upon return. Jerry Jeudy has struggled mightily this season and it’s certainly possible that Dulcich could find himself as Wilson’s No. 2 target behind Courtland Sutton. There’s upside here and because of that, he’s worth a speculative add.

If You're Desperate, Consider Adding Pat Freiermuth

Freiermuth has played in just four games this season and in two of them, he left early and finished with a 50% snap share in both games. Needless to say, most of his per-game averages are not the most accurate representation of who Freiermuth is. Since we essentially have two full games and two injury-shortened contests this season, I’d argue it’s more predictive to look at a larger sample. Such as in 2022 when Kenny Pickett was also under center for most of the year.

Freiermuth had a good, but not great route participation rate. However, 73% is good enough to be considered a weekly starter. His 19% target share is elite. There are only five tight ends with a higher target share this season. Using his per-game averages from 2022, his 17-game pace would be 104 targets, 66 receptions, and 779 yards. That’s a darn good tight end. That wasn’t a fluke either.

Even as a rookie, Freiermuth showed plenty of promise. He had 70 targets, 54 receptions, 444 yards, and 7 touchdowns. As far as rookie tight ends go, that’s pretty stinkin’ good. Then he followed that up with a very impressive second season. His 2023 season hasn’t been bad, contrary to what the stats show. It's just been riddled with injuries, but this is football, so that’s going to happen. We have two years' worth of data that says Freiermuth is a very good tight end vs. what essentially amounts to three games' worth of play this season. I’d suggest using the former.

If you’re streaming tight ends or lost Dallas Goedert or Darren Waller to injury, it makes sense to add Freiermuth. He’s eligible to come back from IR this week. Last year, his target share and targets per game both bested George Pickens. Pickett has a 7.1 intended air yards per attempt average. This is the ninth-lowest out of 33 qualifying quarterbacks. He doesn’t like to throw the ball downfield. For Freiermuth’s fantasy value, that’s a good thing. There’s nothing wrong with betting on Freiermuth’s talent. In fact, I encourage it.

Can a Cincinnati Bengal Tight End Be Trusted?

From Weeks 8-9, Irv Smith, Jr. had eight targets, seven receptions, 41 yards, and one touchdown. From Weeks 9-10, Tanner Hudson had 12 targets, 10 receptions, and 78 yards. Are either one of these players a worthwhile play this upcoming week for fantasy managers looking to stream the position, especially with  Tee Higgins out again? Let’s look at their Week 10 utilization.

The short answer is no, neither player is worth a dart throw. If I had to pick one, if I was truly that desperate, I would lean toward Tanner Hudson. However, based on their snap share and route participation last week, none of them can be trusted.

Not a single one of this tight end trio played or ran a route more than 40% of the time. While Hudson's seven targets in Week 10 may look appealing, it would be dangerous to expect he's going to repeat a 41% target per route run rate. For reference, Ja'Marr Chase's target share per route run is 29%. Tyreek Hill's rate is 36% and A.J. Brown's rate is 28%. If his 41% target per route run dropped to "just" Chase levels, he would've had just five targets. Mark Andrews' rate is 23%. If Hudson's target per route run fell to his level, he would've had four targets.

If you're going to stream Hudson, you're banking on his snap share and route participation rate increasing significantly for him to be a viable play. His effectiveness in Week 10 makes that a possibility, but far from a guarantee. At this time, I would refrain from playing any Cincinnati tight end. With that said, if Hudson's snap share and route participation climb to 65-70% and Higgins misses Week 12, then we can talk about potentially streaming Hudson.

Quarterback Carousel: How QB Changes Impact David Njoku and Cole Kmet

There are a couple of big quarterback changes this upcoming weekend. The Bears will welcome back Justin Fields and Tyson Bagent will move back to the bench. The Browns announced Deshaun Watson will be out for the season. They also announced it will be Dorian Thompson-Robinson and not P.J. Walker who will start under center in Week 11. In theory, this should improve Cole Kmet's fantasy value, while hindering David Njoku's. Let's see if that's actually the case.

We're going to start with Kmet. The below table looks at the first five games of the season in which Fields started and Weeks 7-10, the four weeks where Bagent started. I did not include Week 6 as Fields played 53% of the snaps and Bagent played the rest, so very much 50/50. Interestingly enough, there is very little difference between these two samples. The biggest change is that Kmet's route participation increased by eight percent with Bagent under center, but that only increased his routes per game by two.

His production, which is ultimately what we care about, really didn't change at all. It's crazy actually, just how similar Kmet's numbers are with Fields and Bagent under center. His targets, receptions, and yards per game are virtually identical. As is his target share. However, that doesn't necessarily mean that Kmet won't see a boost with Fields back under center. That's because there is a lot more touchdown opportunity with Fields at quarterback.

Fields threw 11 touchdowns in five games, an average of just over two passing scores per game. Bagent threw just three touchdowns in four starts, less than one per game. So while Kmet's utilization and per-game averages are incredibly similar, Kmet's weekly upside is higher with Fields because the entire offense should score more.

Njoku is a trickier sample to decipher. That's because Dorian Thompson-Robinson isn't the only quarterback to play for the Browns. In fact, Walker played and attempted more passes than Thompson-Robinson in Watson's absence. Here, I've combined the statistics from Thompson-Robinson and Walker. Interestingly enough, Njoku's stats actually improve quite a bit without Watson, which is not what you would expect.

Thompson-Robinson played in Cleveland's Week 4 contest against the Ravens. In that game, he completed 19 of 36 passes for 121 yards. He did not throw a touchdown and had three interceptions. While those numbers are awful, keep in mind that he's just a rookie and Baltimore has allowed the fewest points to opposing quarterbacks this season. The Baltimore defense has been elite and arguably the best defense in the NFL this season. Fantasy managers shouldn't expect him to light the world on fire, but it's reasonable to expect him to be better than he was in Week 4. That said, he targeted Njoku seven times. Njoku caught six of those targets for 46 yards. It's just a one-game sample, but Njoku was his favorite target in that game.

Looking at the stats with Walker and Thompson-Robinson, Njoku's route participation increased by five percent and his target share increased by three percent. While Njoku's targets and receptions per game average remained relatively similar - his targets increased by just over one per game and his receptions increased by 0.5 per game - his yards increased more significantly. He averaged 15 more yards per game with Cleveland's backups than he did with Watson.

Even though, technically his stats look better with the backup quarterbacks, fantasy managers should still be dropping Njoku somewhat significantly in their rankings. Much like Kmet, the reason for this is touchdowns and scoring upside. Watson has seven touchdowns on 171 attempts. He has a 4.1% touchdown rate. Walker and Thompson-Robinson combine for just one touchdown on 135 attempts. They have a 0.007% touchdown rate. Njoku's scoring potential takes a drastic hit. The floor is scary low without Watson and the ceiling is limited because the touchdown opportunities will be few and far in between.

Kmet should be valued as a high-end TE2 for the rest of the season. He should find himself ranked between TE10 and TE18 most weeks, depending on the matchup. Njoku should be viewed as a mid-to-backend TE2 with this quarterback news. Most weeks he'll find himself ranked between TE12 and TE20.

Week 11 Tight End Rankings

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