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The first five rounds of fantasy drafts are the most exciting. These players are the face of the NFL and soon to be the face of your fantasy team for the entire year. As a result, these picks are surely the most stressful because they can sometimes make or break your fantasy season. That should be no different in 2024, as the first couple of rounds are always the most important.
Just look at 2023 fantasy drafts. If a fantasy manager chose Travis Kelce in the first round and then followed that selection by taking Nick Chubb in Round 2 and DeVonta Smith in Round 3, chances are that team did not do very well last season and likely finished in the bottom half of the league.
So, let's prevent that from happening this season. In this article, we will look at the best targets and value picks in each of the first five rounds of fantasy drafts. These players should be easy selections in Rounds 1-5 in 2024.
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First Round: RB Breece Hall, New York Jets (ADP: 1.07)
Of course, all fantasy managers want to take Christian McCaffrey, CeeDee Lamb, or Tyreek Hill in the first round of drafts this season. After all, those are undoubtedly the best three players in fantasy heading into the year. But not everyone will be able to select them. So, when looking at the entire first round, New York Jets running back Breece Hall is the best value pick.
Breece Hall has the LEAST risk of any first round RB in fantasy football.
- Younger than CMC
- More proven than Bijan
- Less competition than GibbsBoth Hall & Rodgers fully healthy.
My pick to finish RB1 overall.
Thoughts?
pic.twitter.com/O233GOgUZ9— Joe Orrico (@NoExpertFF) June 17, 2024
Hall is currently going around the 1.07 in drafts this season, which makes him a great target in the middle of Round 1. In 2023, the explosive back finished as the RB2 while averaging 17.1 PPR fantasy points per game. That high finish was also with the 23-year-old coming off a torn ACL and being on a snap count for the first couple of weeks. However, when he was a full go, he was a dominant fantasy option for managers.
From Week 5 to Week 18, Hall averaged an absurd 20 PPR fantasy points per game, only behind McCaffrey's 22.6 points. With no limitations starting in Week 5, the Jets playmaker scored over 18 points eight times during that 13-game span and finished the season scoring over 26 points in four of the final five games.
Now, fantasy managers can get a surefire RB1 in the middle of the first round. He should receive almost all the running-back touches out of New York's backfield this season, and having Aaron Rodgers (Achilles) return from injury should also help Hall in both the running and passing game. An overall RB1 finish could be in store for the 23-year-old, so don't be afraid to take him early in drafts.
Second Round: RB Saquon Barkley, Philadelphia Eagles (ADP: 2.04)
The biggest question mark for new Philadelphia Eagles running back Saquon Barkley is how he will fit in a new offense in 2024. After being the main offensive focus for the New York Giants over the past six years, he now goes to an Eagles offense that has other superstars on that side of the ball. Jalen Hurts could also take away some rushing touchdowns from Barkley this season.
However, none of that should really matter to the 27-year-old because he should still be in for a strong fantasy campaign. Barkley goes from running behind one of the worst offensive lines in New York to now running behind one of the best in Philadelphia. That should immediately boost his fantasy value, considering Lane Johnson (82%), Landon Dickerson (81%), and Jordan Mailata (80%) ranked one, two, and three in run block win rate in 2023.
Jalen Hurts and Saquon Barkley are getting in extra work together on their own before Eagles training camp starts in 5 weeks. This is what leaders do
📸 @saquon pic.twitter.com/nUWVPs1mjU— John Clark (@JClarkNBCS) June 19, 2024
While Barkley could lose some touches in the receiving game -- given Hurts' lack of passes to running backs over his career -- he'll surely make up for it on the ground. The Eagles scored 20 more touchdowns than the Giants last season, so there should be plenty of opportunities for the Pro Bowler to cross the goal line.
Running behind this Eagles offensive line should propel Barkley to a top-five fantasy finish, if not higher. He'll enter the year with a high floor and ceiling in this elite offense, making him a value pick at the 2.04 in drafts.
Third Round: WR Mike Evans, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (ADP: 3.06)
There are a couple of value picks currently going in the third round, including Baltimore Ravens running back Derrick Henry. But it's hard to pass on Tampa Bay Buccaneers wide receiver Mike Evans at this point in the draft, especially if fantasy managers went running backs in the first two rounds.
Evans is coming off one of his stronger campaigns in 2023, where he totaled 79 catches for 1,255 yards and 13 touchdowns. That helped him finish as the WR7 in PPR formats, which was the second-best finish of his career. Now, entering the 2024 season, not much has changed for the 30-year-old or Tampa Bay's offense. Baker Mayfield is back after signing a multiyear deal, and the Buccaneers didn't add any notable pass-catchers this offseason to take away targets from the veteran.
Mike Evans is yet again a Redraft Value & Screaming Dynasty Buy
💥13+ TDs in 3/4 Years
💥1,000 yards 10 straight2016: WR3
2017: WR17
2018: WR9
2019: WR15
2020: WR11
2021: WR9
2022: WR17
2023: WR7
2024: Current WR14Buy floor & enjoy the Production!
Post Evans Trades ⬇️ pic.twitter.com/1qbgWiYiLO— Dynasty Dad (@DynastyDadFF) June 19, 2024
As a result, there's no reason why Evans can't finish as a WR1 again in 2024. He has finished as a top-12 fantasy option in three of the past four seasons while totaling over 1,000 yards in 10 straight seasons since making his debut in 2014. It hasn't mattered who his offensive coordinator or quarterback has been over his career because the veteran continues to produce elite offensive numbers.
Even if he is due for some touchdown regression after totaling 13 a year ago, that shouldn't affect his fantasy value a whole lot. Evans has a high floor entering his 11th NFL season and should be a consistent fantasy option again with Mayfield still under center.
Fourth Round: RB Joe Mixon, Houston Texans (ADP: 4.11)
Not only is Houston Texans running back Joe Mixon a great target in the fourth round, but Mixon is my favorite value pick in fantasy drafts this season. Despite switching teams this offseason from the Cincinnati Bengals to the Texans, his production shouldn't change at all. He should assume RB1 duties in Houston while seeing somewhere between 250 to 315 touches again this season.
That's why Mixon's 4.11 ADP doesn't make much sense. He has finished as a top-10 fantasy running back in PPR formats in three straight years, including an RB6 finish in 2023. Last season, the 27-year-old totaled 309 touches for 1,410 yards and 12 touchdowns. Now, he goes to a Texans offense that is just as dominant as Cincinnati's, which gives him a nice floor heading into the year. He has totaled at least 1,400 yards from scrimmage in four of the past six seasons, and there's no reason why he can't hit that mark again in 2024.
Mixon should see his usual workload in Houston's offense and see most of the running-back touches in that backfield. With Devin Singletary leaving this offseason, Dameon Pierce is the only running back who could take away some touches from the veteran. But Pierce should see more of a reserve role again this year, especially after his struggles in 2023. As a result, look for the 27-year-old to finish as an RB1 again. Fantasy managers can take him late in the fourth round.
Fifth Round: QB Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts (ADP: 5.11)
Usually, it is best to wait on quarterbacks in fantasy drafts. Instead of taking Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, or Hurts really early, there is better value in waiting for one in the middle rounds. If you're one of those fantasy managers who likes to wait for a quarterback, Indianapolis Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson is a strong target in the fifth round this year.
Richardson showed a ton of fantasy potential in a small sample size last year before undergoing season-ending shoulder surgery early in his rookie campaign. In two full games that he appeared in, the 22-year-old averaged 25.8 fantasy points per game. In Week 1, he scored 21.9 points behind 223 pass yards, 40 rush yards, and two touchdowns. Then, in Week 4, he scored 29.6 points behind 200 pass yards, 56 rush yards, and three total touchdowns.
It's obviously a small sample size for Richardson, but it's hard to ignore what he did when he was healthy. In four total games last season, the Colts signal-caller totaled 577 pass yards and three touchdowns through the air while rushing for 136 yards and four touchdowns on the ground.
Anthony Richardson is rising up @FieldYates rankings 📈 pic.twitter.com/SjxtsfkZ7C
— ESPN Fantasy Sports (@ESPNFantasy) June 19, 2024
Now, entering Year 2 fully healthy, look for Richardson to break out. He has the upside and potential to finish as a top-three fantasy quarterback this upcoming season, given his potential to throw for over 3,000 yards and rush for over 1,000 yards. With an ADP of 5.11, the second-year quarterback is an easy selection in the fifth round.
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