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Player and coach movement shakes up the landscape of the NFL every season. Sometimes this movement decreases opportunities for some players and increases it for others.
Pass-catchers are especially susceptible to changes in the NFL landscape. If a high-end wide receiver changes teams, they are likely to depress the targets of their new teammates. Simultaneously, their old teammates should see an increase in targets. Furthermore, coach movement can impact offensive systems, which further impacts targets and target share.
With the NFL regular season fast approaching, let's take a look at five players who are bound to see an increase in target market share in 2024.
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Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Seattle Seahawks
Jaxon Smith-Njigba was considered to be the best wide receiver prospect in 2023. He was selected as the first wide receiver, taken 20th overall by the Seahawks.
Smith-Njigba was highly productive in college. During his final healthy season at Ohio State, Smith-Njigba recorded 80 receptions for 1,259 yards and six touchdowns. Oh, and both Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave were on that team. Even a freshman Marvin Harrison Jr. was waiting in the wings.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba is a route MAGICIAN 🔥
Titans CB’s reportedly “could not guard” JSN for the life of them at practice today.
Njigba has reportedly looked “elite” throughout camp and is poised for a WR2 jump.
The Seahawks have themselves a STUD. pic.twitter.com/lFiBDGk5ua
— NFL Rookie Watch (@NFLRookieWatxh) August 15, 2024
Smith-Njigba posted a 17% target share among Seattle pass-catchers in 2023. DK Metcalf (22.9%) and Tyler Lockett (22.3%) led the way for Seattle.
Former offensive coordinator Shane Waldron did not seem to know how to use Smith-Njigba in 2023. His average depth of target (aDOT) was 6.1, which was 95th in the league. The total target volume (93 total targets) was decent but the target quality and share were nowhere near what they needed to be for consistent fantasy success.
Insert new offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb, who deployed three wide receivers consistently in 2023 at the University of Washington. With Lockett having shown signs of decline entering his age-32 season (turns 32 on September 28), expect Smith-Njigba to see an uptick in targets and a presence on the field with Seattle's top-2 wide receivers.
Under Grubb, Metcalf may also see an increase in targets. However, Grubb will likely target Smith-Njigba downfield more often than in 2023, and his target share should increase past 20%.
As a Seahawks fan myself, I have enjoyed watching Lockett play over the last decade. However, Smith-Njigba is young, exciting, and talented. The new regime is likely ready to push this offense into the future and Smith-Njigba seems to be in prime position to reap those benefits.
Jameson Williams, WR, Detroit Lions
Jameson Williams' 2023 target share of 9.8% is going to increase as he steps into the No. 2 wide receiver role for the Lions.
The Lions funnel targets to Amon-Ra St. Brown (30.2%), Sam LaPorta (21.1%), and Jahmyr Gibbs (14.1%) but that still leaves 34.6% of the targets in a high-T offense up for grabs. Josh Reynolds and his 11.2% target share are gone. Other players will be involved, but if Williams can perform at a high level, then he could realistically push for a 20% target share.
Williams does not profile as a high-volume player. However, his ability as a deep threat supports his case for fantasy value with limited targets relative to other wide receivers because of the potential for big plays.
The route by Jameson Williams 🤢
📸 : @Lions pic.twitter.com/geuVhlXvau
— Woodward Sports Network (@woodwardsports) August 20, 2024
The Lions threw the ball 606 times in 2023. Let's assume they repeat that type of volume and Williams has an 18% target share. That would leave him at 109 targets. 109 targets would put Williams around 31st in the league among the likes of Jordan Addison, Zay Flowers, George Pickens, and a hyper-efficient Brandon Aiyuk.
Each of those four wide receivers was fantasy-relevant in 2023. Due to his role in the deep passing game, Williams will likely have a high average depth of target and yards per catch average. The Lions showed in the playoffs that they would also like to scheme touches for Williams. If he can receive manufactured touches in the short passing game, then his efficiency will increase.
Williams is not going to be a world-breaker in fantasy in 2024. However, I will gladly take a player as the WR48 in drafts who could earn north of 100 targets.
Kyle Pitts, TE, Atlanta Falcons
Kyle Pitts had the lowest target share of his career in 2023. After posting a 20.3% target share in 2021 and a 27.3% target share in 2022, Pitts had a 17.8% target share in 2023. Pitts' 2022 target share is inflated due to low overall passing volume under Arthur Smith, but it is still indicative of his ability to earn targets due to his talent.
Kirk Cousins is entering the fold as the Falcons' new starting quarterback. If there is anything Cousins knows how to do, it is to get the best players the football. The Falcons have two potential target hogs in Pitts and wide receiver Drake London. Both could see target shares north of 25% in 2024.
🎥Kyle Pitts easing past Jessie Bates in #Falcons practice
pic.twitter.com/czhKB6cRZr— DirtyBirds (@DirtyBirds__) August 14, 2024
Pitts has been hampered by injury over the last two seasons and has not looked himself. Moreover, the Falcons have struggled to get Pitts the ball due to poor quarterback play over the last couple of seasons. With Raheem Morris and Co. on their way in, expect Pitts to be targeted early and often.
As fantasy managers, it is easy to be disappointed in Pitts due to his performance over the last couple of seasons after a promising rookie season. However, this could be the year he truly breaks out. It would be surprising if Pitts' target share is below 20% and the ceiling is much higher.
George Pickens, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers
Diontae Johnson and his 23.5% target share are now in Carolina. Johnson is one of the league's best route runners and has earned targets accordingly.
Pickens is an ascending wide receiver. His target share, yards per catch average, receiving yards, receptions, and touchdowns all increased from 2022 to 2023. He displayed an alpha ability in 2023 that could result in an explosion in 2024.
#10 - George Pickens 🔥
2024 All-Pro you can bookmark that now 😤 just an absolute menace and the best contested catch WR in the NFL
2023 Stats:
63 Receptions
1140 Yards
18.1 YPC 😱 https://t.co/PrBxa7bX9R pic.twitter.com/rjuY11wzfe— Mr Unlimmmited (@chris_ferland) August 22, 2024
Pickens had a 21.9% target share in 2023. That number figures to grow to at least 25% with the exit of Johnson. Additionally, Arthur Smith is Pittsburgh's new offensive coordinator. While the result may not have been what fantasy managers wanted, he showed an ability in Atlanta to try to funnel passes to top targets Kyle Pitts and Drake London even in a low-passing-volume offense.
The Steelers have shown with their offseason moves that they want to control the game with good defense and a solid run game. Will they be able to do that in a conference that features the Ravens, Bengals, and Chiefs? Not to mention they will have to play both the Ravens and Bengals twice.
Regardless of who starts at quarterback, both Justin Fields and Russell Wilson are upgrades over former Steelers quarterbacks Kenny Pickett and Mason Rudolph. That gives the Steelers options in the passing game.
With no other established No. 1 or even No. 2 wide receivers on this roster, look for Pickens to receive the lion's share of targets. Pickens could realistically push for 1,200 yards and double-digit touchdowns in 2024.
Dontayvion Wicks, WR, Green Bay Packers
Dontayvion Wicks finds himself in a situation with three other viable wide receivers in the fold in Green Bay. Wide receivers Jayden Reed, Christian Watson, and Romeo Doubs all posted at least a 17.1% target share in 2023. Watson had the highest at 17.7%.
With all the hype surrounding Wicks this offseason, it is hard to believe that he will not have at least a 17% target share in 2024. Given all the good pass-catchers the Packers have, it is unlikely that Wicks will have more than a 20% target share. However, his 11.8% target share in 2023 will surely increase.
Further supporting Wicks' case is that his target share increased as the season wore on. While his season high was only seven targets, Wicks consistently earned 4-7 targets per game from Week 8 on.
Wicks will not likely be a target hog in 2024, but he profiles as someone who may be able to be highly efficient with his targets. His yards per route run in 2023 was 2.07, which was good for 24th in the league and suggests that Wicks can do a lot with a little.
With a projected ascension into a relevant role, Wicks is well worth a draft pick as the WR59.
...gonna be a problem if Jordan Love is playing faster, manipulating defenders, and finding matchups like Dontayvion Wicks vs a safety.
Doubs, Reed, Wicks are a dynamic young trio in Green Bay. Good to have football back, baby!! pic.twitter.com/cuQzgERpRM
— Ben Fennell (@BenFennell_NFL) August 11, 2024
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