Fantasy Football Strength of Schedule Analysis - Wide Receivers (2024)

As a data-driven analyst, this is one of my favorite times of the season. With five weeks in the books, we are now moving into an amount of data that becomes more indicative of what has happened and potentially what is yet to come the rest of the way.

This includes fantasy strength of schedule, an arena within the fantasy football space wherein I devote much of my time and effort as an analyst. The last time I wrote words for RotoBaller (and if you read them, I am very appreciative) was my preseason projected fantasy strength of schedule article series leading up to the Week 1 kickoff.

Now it’s time to sift through five weeks of data and take the “projected” out of the phrase. This is the first article in a similar series where I will analyze the current fantasy football strength of schedule for each position, based on my adjusted fantasy points allowed process I have been using and improving upon the last three years.

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Fantasy Strength of Schedule (SOS) Process

In this article, I will present the strength of schedule for the wide receiver position in fantasy football, with a focus on the immediate future (Weeks 6-9). You may have read my preseason article series for RotoBaller, where I covered projected fantasy strength of schedule for the skill positions. The criteria I use before the season starts differs from what I will be using for this strength of schedule now that we are almost six weeks in.

A player’s opponent's strength should not be the sole reason you choose to start or sit that player, but it should be a piece of the decision-making process. It can be a good tiebreaker if you are deciding between two players. By looking at current and future matchups and breaking the season down into different time frames (e.g., Next 4 Games, Stretch Run, and Fantasy Playoffs), it helps you strategize for potential trade attempts.

If a player has a difficult stretch of games in the next month, followed by a much more favorable schedule after that, you might be able to catch a manager in a panic after their player understandably underperforms against tough opponents and make a move right before their schedule opens up. And vice versa.

To that end, along with the “Next 4 Games” zoomed-in view, a new addition to this year’s article will be the inclusion of a closer look at the “Stretch Run” matchups (Week 10-14), rather than just being displayed in the full-season color-coded chart. As each week goes by, the time frame defining the “Stretch Run” will change slightly (e.g., next week it will encompass Week 11-14 since Week 10 will join the “Next 4 Games” group).

I’ll start by providing some insight into my process and what data I use to project opponent strength and strength of schedule. Then we’ll look closer at the different scheduled time frames.

Rather than simply looking at raw fantasy points allowed, I use an opponent-adjusted system that compares those raw fantasy points allowed to what the opponent typically scores.

For example, if Team A gives up 35 fantasy points to the Bengals’ WR group and Team B gives up the same number of points to the Patriots’ WR group, raw fantasy points allowed would show Team A and B being the same matchup difficulty versus WRs. Using “Points Over Average (POA)” paints a more accurate picture.

Through five weeks, the Bengals’ WRs have averaged 42 points per game and the Patriots have averaged 11 points per game. Using POA allowed, Team A held the Bengals seven points under their average (a POA allowed of -7) while Team B allowed the Patriots to score 24 points above their average (a POA allowed of +24).

Through this lens, these two teams are far from an equal matchup difficulty. This turns raw fantasy points allowed to an “opponent-adjusted” fantasy points allowed.

The other angle I am adding to the equation is recency. A team’s season-long average points allowed can look different than over a more recent stretch of games. Defenses improve or regress for a variety of reasons. Players get injured or return from injury, coaches adjust their schemes and game plans (on both sides of the ball), and, more qualitatively, players and teams “figure it out.”

Neither season-long nor recent data sets are definitive, but it’s important to look at both when trying to increase the probability of making the right future decisions.

The following are the data sets I use in my process for determining opponent strength versus fantasy WRs (PPR format):

1. Raw fantasy points allowed to WRs per game.
2. POA allowed to WRs per game; season-long.
3. POA allowed to WRs per game over the last three games.
4. Target share allowed to the WR position per game.

2024 Rest-of-Season Fantasy Strength of Schedule

I generated tables showing each team’s rest of season (ROS) schedule (Week 6-17) with each weekly opponent color-coded based on that opponent’s rank (1-32) versus the fantasy WR position. Lower number ranks with a red color indicate more difficult fantasy matchups.

Higher number ranks with a green color represent easier matchups. I update these each week. Also known as schedule “heat maps,” the ROS schedule for WRs is included at the end of the article. This schedule heat map is provided in two formats. One shows each team’s opponents’ team abbreviation. The other shows the actual rank (1-32).

Also included are each team’s ROS SOS and fantasy playoffs (Week 15-17).

2024 Fantasy Strength of Schedule Time Frames

In separating the full season into smaller buckets/stretches of games, I define each as follows:

• Next 4: Weeks 6-9
• Stretch Run: Weeks 10-14
• Fantasy Playoffs: Weeks 15-17

In this article, I will be looking at each time frame and the teams with the Top 10 most favorable fantasy matchups for WRs during those spans according to my adjusted fantasy points allowed ranks.

For these time frame breakdowns, I also added the relevant WRs for each team (top two WR target shares on each team), as well as each of those WR’s PPR PPG and target share.

Fantasy Football - Next 4 Strength of Schedule

The following chart shows each team’s schedule over the next four games (Week 6-9). This is just a condensed version of the color-coded charts shown for the ROS schedule (with players added in) and is sorted by the SOS score in the right-hand column from highest (easier) to lowest (harder).

The Vikings check in with the most favorable schedule over the next month, but with the caveat that they are on bye in Week 6. But after that, it’s wheels (farther) up for Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison. Starting in Week 7, the Vikings face the Lions (31^st), Rams (21^st), and Colts (23^rd).

The QB concerns that brought down Jefferson’s draft stock coming into the season are gone. Sam Darnold has rejuvenated his career in Minnesota. Jefferson’s 33.9% target share is second in the NFL behind only Malik Nabers, and his 19.0 PPR PPG ranks fourth behind Nabers, Chase, and Nico Collins.

The Packers have the best Next 4 schedule for WRs without the caveat of a bye. Their toughest matchup in that stretch is the surprising 13^th-ranked Cardinals in Week 6, but then they face the Texans (20^th), Jaguars (32^nd), and Lions (31^st).

As you’ll see later, things turn the other direction for the Packers WRs after Week 9, with only two-plus matchups the rest of the way (Lions in Week 14 and Vikings (30^th) in Week 17).

Dontayvion Wicks disappointed a lot of managers in Week 5 in a prime matchup with the Rams and both Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs were out. Drops are an issue for Wicks, but earning targets is not. He currently leads the Packers with a 20.3% target share, and should still be heavily involved, even with Watson and Doubs returning to practice this week.

Next up are the Bears with the best WR matchup of them all in Week 6 against the Jaguars. According to my data, the Jaguars’ POA allowed to the WR position is +13.2 PPG, meaning Jacksonville has allowed opposing WR groups to score 13.2 more points per game than their season average and is easily the highest in the NFL.

Over their last three games, that POA allowed WRs jumped to +14.3 per game, which is tied with the Buccaneers. But it is not the highest in that span. The Vikings POA allowed to WRs over the last three games is +15.3 PPG.

Caleb Williams finally had a breakout game. We have become spoiled in expecting rookie QBs to produce immediately. And that breakout game was largely due to his connection with DJ Moore. I expect another big game from both sides of this stack in Week 6.

The Giants have the fourth-most favorable Next 4 schedule with only one negative matchup (Week 8 versus Pittsburgh) and their other three opponents ranking in the mid-20s. Malik Nabers is still “day-to-day” and in the concussion protocol as of this writing.

But with the ninth-best Stretch Run schedule and fourth-best Fantasy Playoff schedule, he has a good chance to maintain his league-leading PPG (22.9) and target share (38.2%) as a rookie.

The Ravens have the 10^th-easiest schedule, but their next three are about as good as it gets. Their overall Next 4 SOS is being dragged down by the fourth game in that span, Week 9 against easily the toughest WR matchup (Broncos).

The fifth through 10^th-most favorable Next 4 schedules are listed below:

• 5^th: PHI
  • Week 6: CLE (19^th)
  • Week 7: NYG (11^th)
  • Week 8: CIN (24^th)
  • JAX (32^nd)

NOTE: It is reported that both AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith should return in Week 6.

• 6^th: CLE
  • Week 6: PHI (27^th)
  • Week 7: CIN (24^th)
  • Week 8: BAL (28^th)
  • Week 9: LAC (3^rd)
• 7^th: DAL
  • Week 6: DET (31^st)
  • Week 7: BYE
  • Week 8: SF (9^th)
  • Week 9: ATL (18^th)
• 8^th: ATL
  • Week 6: CAR (22^nd)
  • Week 7: SEA (10^th)
  • Week 8: TB (29^th)
  • Week 9: DAL (16^th)
• 9^th: LAR
  • Week 6: BYE
  • Week 7: LV (17^th)
  • Week 8: MIN (30^th)
  • Week 9: SEA (10^th)
• 10^th: BAL
  • Week 6: WAS (26^th)
  • Week 7: TB (29^th)
  • Week 8: CLE (19^th)
  • Week 9: DEN (1^st)

Fantasy Football Stretch Run Strength of Schedule

The following chart shows each team’s schedule for the regular season Fantasy Football Stretch Run (Week 10-14).

I know it has been disappointing with George Pickens and the Steelers passing game. And schedule-wise, it is not looking up over the Next 4 (fourth-toughest schedule). However, they get a slightly plus matchup in Week 6 versus the Raiders (17^th), and they move to the top of the “easiest schedule” list in the Stretch Run.

From Week 10-14, the Steelers get WAS (26^th), BAL (28^th), CLE (19^th), CIN (24^th), and CLE again. Pickens has only scored 10.2 PPG so far this season, but his ceiling will always be there with his explosiveness and 27.9% target share. Pickens is a prime buy-low candidate over the next month before his schedule opens up.

The Eagles stay on the good list with the second-most favorable Stretch Run WR schedule (following their fifth-best Next 4 schedule). Like the Steelers (and all of the Top 5 Stretch Run schedules), the Eagles do not have a bye during this span. Byes do not factor into my SOS equation but are important contexts to include.

The Titans begin the Stretch run with a difficult matchup with the Chargers (3^rd), but then have the best WR schedule from Week 11 on, including the fantasy playoffs. The Titans’ WRs are tricky to forecast due to the shaky QB situation in Tennessee.

However, if they can arrive at any semblance of a competent signal caller (even if it’s Will Levis), Calvin Ridley becomes a great buy-low trade target with his end-of-season matchups.

Next up are two teams that keep the good times rolling having also been near the top of the Next 4 SOS. The Bears and Cowboys have the fourth- and fifth-most favorable WR schedules during the Stretch Run.

The sixth through 10^th-most favorable Stretch Run schedules are listed below:

• 6^th: JAX
  • Week 10: MIN (30^th)
  • Week 11: DET (31^st)
  • Week 12: BYE
  • Week 13: HOU (20^th)
  • Week 14: TEN (4^th)

NOTE: The Jaguars’ Stretch Run ends with a brutal matchup versus TEN and stays difficult through the fantasy playoffs.

• 7^th: DET
  • Week 10: HOU (20^th)
  • Week 11: JAX (32^nd)
  • Week 12: IND (23^rd)
  • Week 13: CHI (5^th)
  • Week 14: GB (25^th)
• 8^th: HOU
  • Week 10: DET (31^st)
  • Week 11: DAL (16^th)
  • Week 12: TEN (4^th)
  • Week 13: JAX (32^nd)
  • Week 14: BYE
• 9^th: NYG
  • Week 10: CAR (22^nd)
  • Week 11: BYE
  • Week 12: TB (29^th)
  • Week 13: DAL (16^th)
  • Week 14: NO (15^th)
• 10^th: CAR
  • Week 10: NYG (11^th)
  • Week 11: BYE
  • Week 12: KC (6^th)
  • Week 13: TB (29^th)
  • Week 14: PHI (27^th)

Fantasy Football Playoffs Strength of Schedule

The following chart shows each team’s schedule for the Fantasy Playoffs (Week 15-17).

As mentioned, the Titans sit atop the favorable Fantasy Playoffs schedule mountain for WRs, with matchups against the Bengals (24^th), Colts (23^rd), and the best possible championship Week 17 matchup against the Jaguars.

The Cowboys are one of the teams with a Top 10 favorable schedule during the Next 4, Stretch Run, and Fantasy Playoffs, which is why they also have the second-best ROS schedule (Week 6-17), behind only the Bears.

Speaking of Chicago, the Bears have the third-best Fantasy Playoff schedule with two beautiful matchups versus the Vikings (30^th) in Week 15 and the Lions (31^st) in Week 16. Even their championship matchup against the Seahawks may not be seen as a negative matchup by that time.

The numbers are what they are, but the Seahawks are a tough team to judge with some of the opponents they’ve faced and the recent onslaught of defensive injuries.

The Giants check in with the fourth-best Fantasy Playoffs schedule, and a new team joins the club the Saints. The Saints' schedule is near the bottom in the Next 4, then jumps to 11^th-best in the Stretch Run, and up to fifth-best during the Fantasy Playoffs, with games versus the Commanders (26^th), Packers (25^th), and Raiders (17^th).

The sixth through 10^th-most favorable Fantasy Playoffs schedules are listed below:

• 6^th: Las Vegas Raiders
  • Week 15: ATL (18^th)
  • Week 16: JAX (32^nd)
  • Week 17: NO (15^th)
• 7^th: Pittsburgh Steelers
  • Week 15: PHI (27^th)
  • Week 16: BAL (28^th)
  • Week 17: KC (6^th)
• 8^th: Seattle Seahawks
  • Week 15: GB (25^th)
  • Week 16: MIN (30^th)
  • Week 17: CHI (5^th)
• 9^th: Washington Commanders
  • Week 15: NO (15^th)
  • Week 16: PHI (27^th)
  • Week 17: CHI ATL (18^th)
• 10^th: San Francisco 49ers
  • Week 15: LAR (21^st)
  • Week 16: MIA (7^th)
  • Week 17: DET (31^st)

Before I go, I will leave you with the full, ROS heat map schedules for each team for the WR position. Good luck during the rest of the 2024 fantasy football season!

Thank you so much for reading! I love diving deep into the fantasy strength of schedule with the hope that I can help you make the best decisions possible. I will be compiling data every week all season long and updating the fantasy strength of schedule each week. I am always available to help out. If you have any questions about this article or general questions about fantasy football, reach out to me on X (@MunderDifflinFF).

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