X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

Fantasy Football Strength of Schedule Analysis - Wide Receivers (2024)

CeeDee Lamb - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Targets, NFL Injury News

Scott looks at 2024 fantasy football strength of schedules and the best WR matchups for the rest of the season. Target these fantasy football WRs in trades.

As a data-driven analyst, this is one of my favorite times of the season. With five weeks in the books, we are now moving into an amount of data that becomes more indicative of what has happened and potentially what is yet to come the rest of the way.

This includes fantasy strength of schedule, an arena within the fantasy football space wherein I devote much of my time and effort as an analyst. The last time I wrote words for RotoBaller (and if you read them, I am very appreciative) was my preseason projected fantasy strength of schedule article series leading up to the Week 1 kickoff.

Now it’s time to sift through five weeks of data and take the “projected” out of the phrase. This is the first article in a similar series where I will analyze the current fantasy football strength of schedule for each position, based on my adjusted fantasy points allowed process I have been using and improving upon the last three years.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy football rankings for 2025:

 

Fantasy Strength of Schedule (SOS) Process

In this article, I will present the strength of schedule for the wide receiver position in fantasy football, with a focus on the immediate future (Weeks 6-9). You may have read my preseason article series for RotoBaller, where I covered projected fantasy strength of schedule for the skill positions. The criteria I use before the season starts differs from what I will be using for this strength of schedule now that we are almost six weeks in.

A player’s opponent's strength should not be the sole reason you choose to start or sit that player, but it should be a piece of the decision-making process. It can be a good tiebreaker if you are deciding between two players. By looking at current and future matchups and breaking the season down into different time frames (e.g., Next 4 Games, Stretch Run, and Fantasy Playoffs), it helps you strategize for potential trade attempts.

If a player has a difficult stretch of games in the next month, followed by a much more favorable schedule after that, you might be able to catch a manager in a panic after their player understandably underperforms against tough opponents and make a move right before their schedule opens up. And vice versa.

To that end, along with the “Next 4 Games” zoomed-in view, a new addition to this year’s article will be the inclusion of a closer look at the “Stretch Run” matchups (Week 10-14), rather than just being displayed in the full-season color-coded chart. As each week goes by, the time frame defining the “Stretch Run” will change slightly (e.g., next week it will encompass Week 11-14 since Week 10 will join the “Next 4 Games” group).

I’ll start by providing some insight into my process and what data I use to project opponent strength and strength of schedule. Then we’ll look closer at the different scheduled time frames.

Rather than simply looking at raw fantasy points allowed, I use an opponent-adjusted system that compares those raw fantasy points allowed to what the opponent typically scores.

For example, if Team A gives up 35 fantasy points to the Bengals’ WR group and Team B gives up the same number of points to the Patriots’ WR group, raw fantasy points allowed would show Team A and B being the same matchup difficulty versus WRs. Using “Points Over Average (POA)” paints a more accurate picture.

Through five weeks, the Bengals’ WRs have averaged 42 points per game and the Patriots have averaged 11 points per game. Using POA allowed, Team A held the Bengals seven points under their average (a POA allowed of -7) while Team B allowed the Patriots to score 24 points above their average (a POA allowed of +24).

Through this lens, these two teams are far from an equal matchup difficulty. This turns raw fantasy points allowed to an “opponent-adjusted” fantasy points allowed.

The other angle I am adding to the equation is recency. A team’s season-long average points allowed can look different than over a more recent stretch of games. Defenses improve or regress for a variety of reasons. Players get injured or return from injury, coaches adjust their schemes and game plans (on both sides of the ball), and, more qualitatively, players and teams “figure it out.”

Neither season-long nor recent data sets are definitive, but it’s important to look at both when trying to increase the probability of making the right future decisions.

The following are the data sets I use in my process for determining opponent strength versus fantasy WRs (PPR format):

  1. Raw fantasy points allowed to WRs per game.
  2. POA allowed to WRs per game; season-long.
  3. POA allowed to WRs per game over the last three games.
  4. Target share allowed to the WR position per game.

 

2024 Rest-of-Season Fantasy Strength of Schedule

I generated tables showing each team’s rest of season (ROS) schedule (Week 6-17) with each weekly opponent color-coded based on that opponent’s rank (1-32) versus the fantasy WR position. Lower number ranks with a red color indicate more difficult fantasy matchups.

Higher number ranks with a green color represent easier matchups. I update these each week. Also known as schedule “heat maps,” the ROS schedule for WRs is included at the end of the article. This schedule heat map is provided in two formats. One shows each team’s opponents’ team abbreviation. The other shows the actual rank (1-32).

Also included are each team’s ROS SOS and fantasy playoffs (Week 15-17).

 

2024 Fantasy Strength of Schedule Time Frames

In separating the full season into smaller buckets/stretches of games, I define each as follows:

  • Next 4: Weeks 6-9
  • Stretch Run: Weeks 10-14
  • Fantasy Playoffs: Weeks 15-17

In this article, I will be looking at each time frame and the teams with the Top 10 most favorable fantasy matchups for WRs during those spans according to my adjusted fantasy points allowed ranks.

For these time frame breakdowns, I also added the relevant WRs for each team (top two WR target shares on each team), as well as each of those WR’s PPR PPG and target share.

 

Fantasy Football - Next 4 Strength of Schedule

The following chart shows each team’s schedule over the next four games (Week 6-9). This is just a condensed version of the color-coded charts shown for the ROS schedule (with players added in) and is sorted by the SOS score in the right-hand column from highest (easier) to lowest (harder).

The Vikings check in with the most favorable schedule over the next month, but with the caveat that they are on bye in Week 6. But after that, it’s wheels (farther) up for Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison. Starting in Week 7, the Vikings face the Lions (31st), Rams (21st), and Colts (23rd).

The QB concerns that brought down Jefferson’s draft stock coming into the season are gone. Sam Darnold has rejuvenated his career in Minnesota. Jefferson’s 33.9% target share is second in the NFL behind only Malik Nabers, and his 19.0 PPR PPG ranks fourth behind Nabers, Chase, and Nico Collins.

The Packers have the best Next 4 schedule for WRs without the caveat of a bye. Their toughest matchup in that stretch is the surprising 13th-ranked Cardinals in Week 6, but then they face the Texans (20th), Jaguars (32nd), and Lions (31st).

As you’ll see later, things turn the other direction for the Packers WRs after Week 9, with only two-plus matchups the rest of the way (Lions in Week 14 and Vikings (30th) in Week 17).

Dontayvion Wicks disappointed a lot of managers in Week 5 in a prime matchup with the Rams and both Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs were out. Drops are an issue for Wicks, but earning targets is not. He currently leads the Packers with a 20.3% target share, and should still be heavily involved, even with Watson and Doubs returning to practice this week.

Next up are the Bears with the best WR matchup of them all in Week 6 against the Jaguars. According to my data, the Jaguars’ POA allowed to the WR position is +13.2 PPG, meaning Jacksonville has allowed opposing WR groups to score 13.2 more points per game than their season average and is easily the highest in the NFL.

Over their last three games, that POA allowed WRs jumped to +14.3 per game, which is tied with the Buccaneers. But it is not the highest in that span. The Vikings POA allowed to WRs over the last three games is +15.3 PPG.

Caleb Williams finally had a breakout game. We have become spoiled in expecting rookie QBs to produce immediately. And that breakout game was largely due to his connection with DJ Moore. I expect another big game from both sides of this stack in Week 6.

The Giants have the fourth-most favorable Next 4 schedule with only one negative matchup (Week 8 versus Pittsburgh) and their other three opponents ranking in the mid-20s. Malik Nabers is still “day-to-day” and in the concussion protocol as of this writing.

But with the ninth-best Stretch Run schedule and fourth-best Fantasy Playoff schedule, he has a good chance to maintain his league-leading PPG (22.9) and target share (38.2%) as a rookie.

The Ravens have the 10th-easiest schedule, but their next three are about as good as it gets. Their overall Next 4 SOS is being dragged down by the fourth game in that span, Week 9 against easily the toughest WR matchup (Broncos).

The fifth through 10th-most favorable Next 4 schedules are listed below:

  • 5th: PHI
    • Week 6: CLE (19th)
    • Week 7: NYG (11th)
    • Week 8: CIN (24th)
    • JAX (32nd)

NOTE: It is reported that both AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith should return in Week 6.

  • 6th: CLE
    • Week 6: PHI (27th)
    • Week 7: CIN (24th)
    • Week 8: BAL (28th)
    • Week 9: LAC (3rd)
  • 7th: DAL
    • Week 6: DET (31st)
    • Week 7: BYE
    • Week 8: SF (9th)
    • Week 9: ATL (18th)
  • 8th: ATL
    • Week 6: CAR (22nd)
    • Week 7: SEA (10th)
    • Week 8: TB (29th)
    • Week 9: DAL (16th)
  • 9th: LAR
    • Week 6: BYE
    • Week 7: LV (17th)
    • Week 8: MIN (30th)
    • Week 9: SEA (10th)
  • 10th: BAL
    • Week 6: WAS (26th)
    • Week 7: TB (29th)
    • Week 8: CLE (19th)
    • Week 9: DEN (1st)

 

Fantasy Football Stretch Run Strength of Schedule

The following chart shows each team’s schedule for the regular season Fantasy Football Stretch Run (Week 10-14).

I know it has been disappointing with George Pickens and the Steelers passing game. And schedule-wise, it is not looking up over the Next 4 (fourth-toughest schedule). However, they get a slightly plus matchup in Week 6 versus the Raiders (17th), and they move to the top of the “easiest schedule” list in the Stretch Run.

From Week 10-14, the Steelers get WAS (26th), BAL (28th), CLE (19th), CIN (24th), and CLE again. Pickens has only scored 10.2 PPG so far this season, but his ceiling will always be there with his explosiveness and 27.9% target share. Pickens is a prime buy-low candidate over the next month before his schedule opens up.

The Eagles stay on the good list with the second-most favorable Stretch Run WR schedule (following their fifth-best Next 4 schedule). Like the Steelers (and all of the Top 5 Stretch Run schedules), the Eagles do not have a bye during this span. Byes do not factor into my SOS equation but are important contexts to include.

The Titans begin the Stretch run with a difficult matchup with the Chargers (3rd), but then have the best WR schedule from Week 11 on, including the fantasy playoffs. The Titans’ WRs are tricky to forecast due to the shaky QB situation in Tennessee.

However, if they can arrive at any semblance of a competent signal caller (even if it’s Will Levis), Calvin Ridley becomes a great buy-low trade target with his end-of-season matchups.

Next up are two teams that keep the good times rolling having also been near the top of the Next 4 SOS. The Bears and Cowboys have the fourth- and fifth-most favorable WR schedules during the Stretch Run.

The sixth through 10th-most favorable Stretch Run schedules are listed below:

  • 6th: JAX
    • Week 10: MIN (30th)
    • Week 11: DET (31st)
    • Week 12: BYE
    • Week 13: HOU (20th)
    • Week 14: TEN (4th)

NOTE: The Jaguars’ Stretch Run ends with a brutal matchup versus TEN and stays difficult through the fantasy playoffs.

  • 7th: DET
    • Week 10: HOU (20th)
    • Week 11: JAX (32nd)
    • Week 12: IND (23rd)
    • Week 13: CHI (5th)
    • Week 14: GB (25th)
  • 8th: HOU
    • Week 10: DET (31st)
    • Week 11: DAL (16th)
    • Week 12: TEN (4th)
    • Week 13: JAX (32nd)
    • Week 14: BYE
  • 9th: NYG
    • Week 10: CAR (22nd)
    • Week 11: BYE
    • Week 12: TB (29th)
    • Week 13: DAL (16th)
    • Week 14: NO (15th)
  • 10th: CAR
    • Week 10: NYG (11th)
    • Week 11: BYE
    • Week 12: KC (6th)
    • Week 13: TB (29th)
    • Week 14: PHI (27th)

 

Fantasy Football Playoffs Strength of Schedule

The following chart shows each team’s schedule for the Fantasy Playoffs (Week 15-17).

As mentioned, the Titans sit atop the favorable Fantasy Playoffs schedule mountain for WRs, with matchups against the Bengals (24th), Colts (23rd), and the best possible championship Week 17 matchup against the Jaguars.

The Cowboys are one of the teams with a Top 10 favorable schedule during the Next 4, Stretch Run, and Fantasy Playoffs, which is why they also have the second-best ROS schedule (Week 6-17), behind only the Bears.

Speaking of Chicago, the Bears have the third-best Fantasy Playoff schedule with two beautiful matchups versus the Vikings (30th) in Week 15 and the Lions (31st) in Week 16. Even their championship matchup against the Seahawks may not be seen as a negative matchup by that time.

The numbers are what they are, but the Seahawks are a tough team to judge with some of the opponents they’ve faced and the recent onslaught of defensive injuries.

The Giants check in with the fourth-best Fantasy Playoffs schedule, and a new team joins the club the Saints. The Saints' schedule is near the bottom in the Next 4, then jumps to 11th-best in the Stretch Run, and up to fifth-best during the Fantasy Playoffs, with games versus the Commanders (26th), Packers (25th), and Raiders (17th).

The sixth through 10th-most favorable Fantasy Playoffs schedules are listed below:

  • 6th: Las Vegas Raiders
    • Week 15: ATL (18th)
    • Week 16: JAX (32nd)
    • Week 17: NO (15th)
  • 7th: Pittsburgh Steelers
    • Week 15: PHI (27th)
    • Week 16: BAL (28th)
    • Week 17: KC (6th)
  • 8th: Seattle Seahawks
    • Week 15: GB (25th)
    • Week 16: MIN (30th)
    • Week 17: CHI (5th)
  • 9th: Washington Commanders
    • Week 15: NO (15th)
    • Week 16: PHI (27th)
    • Week 17: CHI ATL (18th)
  • 10th: San Francisco 49ers
    • Week 15: LAR (21st)
    • Week 16: MIA (7th)
    • Week 17: DET (31st)

Before I go, I will leave you with the full, ROS heat map schedules for each team for the WR position. Good luck during the rest of the 2024 fantasy football season!

Thank you so much for reading! I love diving deep into the fantasy strength of schedule with the hope that I can help you make the best decisions possible. I will be compiling data every week all season long and updating the fantasy strength of schedule each week. I am always available to help out. If you have any questions about this article or general questions about fantasy football, reach out to me on X (@MunderDifflinFF).

 



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy football app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, rankings, starts/sits & more. All free!

More Fantasy Football Analysis


Check out all of RotoBaller's fantasy football rankings. Staff rankings are updated regularly for all positions and include standard formats, PPR scoring, tiered rankings and dynasty leagues.




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Pete Crow-Armstrong18 mins ago

Homers, Steals Two Bases
Yanquiel Fernandez28 mins ago

With Another Multi-Homer Game
Reese Olson29 mins ago

Strikes Out Seven In Win
Jake Mangum40 mins ago

Exits Game With Groin Tightness
Ryan Pressly49 mins ago

Dealing With Knee Issues
George Kittle51 mins ago

Wants To Be Highest-Paid Tight End
Jac Caglianone52 mins ago

Stays Hot On Wednesday
Tyler Lockett1 hour ago

Joining The Titans
Allan Winans1 hour ago

Strikes Out 10 On Wednesday At Triple-A
1 hour ago

Will Shedeur Sanders' Game Translate To The NFL?
Las Vegas Raiders2 hours ago

Raiders Could Go With Offensive Lineman At No. 6 Overall
NFL2 hours ago

Jaguars, Raiders Looking To Trade Up In First Round
Marcelo Mayer2 hours ago

With Two More Multi-Hit Performances Wednesday
New Orleans Saints2 hours ago

Saints Won't Pick Up Fifth-Year Option On Trevor Penning
Nick Chubb2 hours ago

Not Interested In Retirement
George Pickens2 hours ago

Drawing Trade Interest
Rashee Rice2 hours ago

Taking Part In Offseason Program
2 hours ago

Concerns About Tetairoa McMillan's Lack Of Effort
Jahan Dotson2 hours ago

Eagles Decline Fifth-Year Option On Jahan Dotson
MLB3 hours ago

Rockies-Royals Rained Out On Wednesday
Zach Eflin3 hours ago

To Throw A Side Session Later This Week
Justin Martinez3 hours ago

"All Indications" Justin Martinez Will Be Available On Wednesday
Zack Wheeler3 hours ago

Records Nine Strikeouts
Jared Jones3 hours ago

To Undergo MRI This Week
Luis Rengifo3 hours ago

Returns On Wednesday
Chandler Simpson4 hours ago

Sitting Out Versus Lefty
Joc Pederson4 hours ago

Taking A Seat Versus Southpaw
Leody Taveras4 hours ago

Sitting Out On Wednesday
Brandin Podziemski4 hours ago

Upgraded To Available
Cam Davis5 hours ago

Looking For Better Fortunes At TPC Louisiana
Corey Seager5 hours ago

Goes On 10-Day Injured List With Hamstring Strain
Michael Porter Jr.5 hours ago

Listed As Questionable For Game 3
Minnesota Vikings5 hours ago

Vikings Waive NaJee Thompson, Trevor Reid
Adam Svensson5 hours ago

Making Third Apperence At Zurich Classic
Jonathan Aranda5 hours ago

Sitting Against Southpaw
Jake Fromm5 hours ago

Lions Release Jake Fromm
Logan O'Hoppe5 hours ago

Out Against Pirates
Seattle Seahawks5 hours ago

Cameron Young Let Go By Seattle
Detroit Lions6 hours ago

Detroit Makes Kerby Joseph The Highest-Paid Safety In League History
Davion Mitchell6 hours ago

Moves Into Starting Lineup Wednesday
Seiya Suzuki6 hours ago

Scratched On Wednesday With Wrist Soreness
Brandin Podziemski6 hours ago

Picks Up Questionable Tag
Al Horford6 hours ago

Starts Game 2
Michael Porter Jr.6 hours ago

Practices On Wednesday
Jayson Tatum7 hours ago

Out On Wednesday
Isaiah Stewart7 hours ago

May Miss Another Game Thursday
NYI7 hours ago

Cal Clutterbuck Announces Retirement
Pavel Zacha7 hours ago

Recovering From Small Procedure
Nikolaj Ehlers7 hours ago

To Miss At Least Two More Games
Miro Heiskanen7 hours ago

Still Out On Wednesday
John Klingberg8 hours ago

Enters Oilers Lineup For Game 2
Evander Kane8 hours ago

To Make Season Debut Wednesday Night
Gabriel Landeskog8 hours ago

Likely To Play In Game 3
Denver Broncos9 hours ago

Broncos Not Expected To Trade Up In Round 1
Houston Texans9 hours ago

Texans Trying To Move Up In Round 1 Of NFL Draft
Atlanta Falcons9 hours ago

James Pearce Jr., Mike Green Potential Top Targets For Falcons
Dallas Cowboys9 hours ago

Cowboys Could Add Wide Receiver Help With No. 12 Pick
New Orleans Saints10 hours ago

Saints Likely To Address Defense With No. 9 Pick?
10 hours ago

Rams Eyeing Trade Up For Tyler Warren, Colston Loveland?
Jaren Jackson Jr.15 hours ago

Posts Team-High 26 Points In Tuesday's Loss
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander15 hours ago

Notches 27 Points Despite Poor Shooting
Max Greyserman15 hours ago

Aiming For Similar Success At TPC Louisiana
Pascal Siakam15 hours ago

Scores Team-High 24 Points In Game 2 Win
Giannis Antetokounmpo15 hours ago

Posts Big Double-Double In Game 2 Loss
Lee Hodges15 hours ago

A High-Upside Player In New Orleans
PGA16 hours ago

Nico Echavarria Looks To Ride Off Of Elite Putting In New Orleans
Julius Randle16 hours ago

Leads Timberwolves In Scoring In Game 2
Gary Woodland16 hours ago

A Player Worth Watching In New Orleans
Luka Dončić16 hours ago

Luka Doncic Nets 31 Points In Lakers Win
Max McGreevy16 hours ago

Returns To The Zurich Classic Of New Orleans
Rasmus Hojgaard16 hours ago

In Search Of Consistency Ahead Of Zurich Classic
Jock Landale16 hours ago

Unavailable For Game 2
Sam Stevens16 hours ago

A Boom-Or-Bust Candidate In New Orleans
Jae'Sean Tate16 hours ago

Remains Out Wednesday
Nicolai Hojgaard16 hours ago

Looking To Turn Season Around At Zurich Classic
John Tavares16 hours ago

Collects Two Points In Overtime Win
Christiaan Bezuidenhout16 hours ago

Looks To Sway A Hot Putter In Teams Favor At Zurich Classic
Frederik Andersen16 hours ago

Posts 40th Postseason Win
Akshay Bhatia16 hours ago

Looking To Bounce Back At TPC Louisiana
Carson Young16 hours ago

Looks To Turn Things Around At TPC Louisiana
Kirill Kaprizov16 hours ago

Leads Wild To Valuable Road Win
Matthew Tkachuk16 hours ago

Returns With Three-Point Performance
Erik Van Rooyen16 hours ago

Looking For Momentum In Louisiana
Anthony Cirelli17 hours ago

Suffers Undisclosed Injury Tuesday
Gabriel Vilardi17 hours ago

May Return To Jets Lineup Thursday
John Klingberg17 hours ago

Ready To Return To Action
Evander Kane17 hours ago

Could Be An Option For Game 2
Andrew Novak1 day ago

Making Start At TPC Louisiana After Near Miss At Harbour Town
Ben Griffin1 day ago

Making Third Career Start At Zurich Classic
Taylor Moore1 day ago

Competing With A New Teammate In New Orleans
Wyndham Clark1 day ago

Making Return To New Orleans
Kurt Kitayama1 day ago

Teeing It Up Again In New Orleans
Collin Morikawa1 day ago

Back At Zurich Classic For Fifth Time
Thomas Detry1 day ago

Making Third Appearance At New Orleans Team Event
Terry Rozier1 day ago

Ruled Out For Wednesday
Damian Lillard1 day ago

Will Have His Minutes Monitored Tuesday
Jayson Tatum1 day ago

Listed As Doubtful For Game 2
Derek Forbort1 day ago

Recovering From Surgery
Martin Fehérváry1 day ago

Martin Fehervary To Miss Postseason Following Knee Surgery
Luke Glendening1 day ago

Available For Start Of Playoffs
Mitchell Chaffee1 day ago

Available Tuesday
Cody Glass1 day ago

Good To Go Tuesday
Brenden Dillon1 day ago

Won't Play In Game 2
Damian Lillard1 day ago

Cleared To Play Tuesday
Nikola Jokić2 days ago

Nikola Jokic Posts 19th Postseason Triple-Double
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF