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If you weren't already excited enough about a Week 9 matchup between the under-achieving Pittsburgh Steelers and the identity-seeking Tennessee Titans for Thursday night football, would some Kenny Pickett vs. Will Levis help get you there? In what was originally shaping up to be the most Thursday Night Football-ish game ever, we will at least be able to watch and see if Will Levis can repeat his record-breaking performance from his first game in Week 8.
Both of these teams have significant work to do to make up ground in their division if they are to have any hope of the playoffs. No matter what the game might seem like on paper (especially with a low total), there are actually a lot of fantasy angles to consider for this matchup.
I will be bringing you Thursday Night Football analysis all year long, focusing on who to definitely start, who is on the fence, and who should find the bench. Let's dive into this Thursday Night matchup of the 2023 season.
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Tennessee Titans @ Pittsburgh Steelers - 8:15 pm ET
Notable Injuries:
- Kenny Pickett (QB, PIT) - Ribs - Off Injury Report
- Derrick Henry (RB, TEN) - Ankle - Off Injury Report
- DeAndre Hopkins (WR, TEN) - Toe - Questionable
- Ryan Tannehill (QB, TEN) - Ankle - Out
#Titans WR DeAndre Hopkins did not practice today with a toe injury and is questionable for Thursday night's game vs. the Pittsburgh Steelers. pic.twitter.com/kCwBLERRqI
— Ari Meirov (@MySportsUpdate) November 1, 2023
Titans vs. Steelers Matchup Breakdown
Two teams traditionally thought to be run-heavy, smashmouth-defense squads have not completely lived up to their reputation this year and have had struggles putting points on the board and keeping other teams from piling up large yardage totals. Both Tennessee and Pittsburgh are bottom-11 in the league opponents' yards per play allowed and both allow more than 20 points per game.
Pittsburgh (ranked 27th) has been especially bad against the rush (4.5 yards allowed per attempt) while Tennessee ranks 27th in yards allowed per pass attempt (7.2). This leads to competing defensive styles that actually set up well for some of the most rostered fantasy assets in this game. Pittsburgh has been almost as bad against the pass (ranked 25th with 7.1 yards per attempt allowed), so that means once again all eyes will be on Will Levis.
Officially named the starter for Thursday night, this matchup hinges on whether or not he can repeat some of his success of the four-touchdown game against Atlanta, or whether that was fluky. If Levis can turbocharge this Tennessee offense in the air combined with what Derrick Henry and Tyjae Spears can do on the ground, it will be a long night for the shaky Pittsburgh defense.
Must-Starts for Fantasy Football Lineups
DeAndre Hopkins (WR, TEN)
Just how unusual was this three-touchdown game for DeAndre Hopkins on Sunday? He also had three receiving touchdowns TOTAL from December 19, 2021 up until last week. Of course that game is unrepeatable, but Hopkins did see 22% of the targets (double more than anyone else on the team) and over 40% of the air yards. Will Levis is going to be looking his way as a security blanket again on the road so fire up Hopkins as a surefire WR2 this week.
Derrick Henry (TE, TEN)
Pittsburgh has been gashed on the ground this year, allowing more than 137 rushing yards per game to opponents and more than seven rushing first downs per game. Derrick Henry may have lost a step of his absolute prime year, but he is still a no-doubt fantasy starter who has the fifth most rushing yards in the league and he is 18th among running backs in receiving yards this season.
Diontae Johnson (WR, PIT)
Diontae Johnson led the world in air yards and in targets last week, ending the day with eight catches for 85 yards. Since his return three weeks ago Johnson has a 31.8% target share and has drawn 44% of the air yards. He is the dominant possession receiver on this team and the first read for Kenny Pickett. Tennessee ranks 27th in the league with 7.2 yards per pass attempt to opponents.
Diontae Johnson earned 14 targets this week, which is normal, but at a 13.4 aDOT, which is not. The 188 air yards were a career high.
Small 2023 sample, but in the past two weeks:
Week 8 — career-high air yards
Week 7 — career-high YPT (min. 5 targets, a 59-game sample)— Ben Gretch (@YardsPerGretch) October 30, 2023
George Pickens (WR, PIT)
On the season, the Titans now allow the eighth-most fantasy points to wide receivers including being bottom-10 in receptions and receiving yards despite only playing seven games this year. The return of Johnson has only meant that defenses can't key in as much on Pickens as he still has a 21% target share and 37.8% of the air yards.
Solid Starts for Fantasy Football Lineups
Chigoziem Okonkwo (TE, TEN)
To be transparent about it, Chig Okonkwo is fantasy relevant in this spot because basically any tight end who gets a healthy target share is in play this year. Okonkwo has seen at least four targets in five of the last six games and the Titans even got him involved back in the rushing game again last week. Over the last three games, Okonkwo has a very strong 21% target share.
Najee Harris (RB, PIT)
In his last four games, Harris has the following finishes in half-PPR formats: 17th, 37th, 12th, 27th. The question we must consider is, will this be an RB2 type game or will it be another one where he completely disappears from the fantasy landscape? Where I am able and have Najee Harris, he is no more than a flex play for me in most leagues, but he still has the volume to matter. He has at least 12 opportunities in every game since Week 2 and should at the very least see volume as the Steelers try and keep the ball away from Derrick Henry and DeAndre Hopkins.
Tyjae Spears (RB, TEN)
Tyjae Spears has played between 44% and 56% of the Titans' snaps in all but one game this season, and his efficiency has been off the charts. He ranks fifth among running backs in in true yards per carry (5.1) and also is 17th in targets despite playing in a backup role. He is much more valuable in half-PPR and PPR formats, but if the Titans fall behind in the second-half, his role in the hurry-up offense and two-minute drill will be secure.
Rookie RB Carry Share Leaders over the last 4 weeks:
Jahmyr Gibbs 65% 👀
Emari Demercado 41%
Bijan Robinson 30%
Jaleel McLaughlin 23%
Tyjae Spears 18%
Zach Charbonnet 17%
Roschon Johnson 16%— Scott Spratt (@Scott_Spratt) November 1, 2023
Consider Sitting for Fantasy Football Lineups
Kenny Pickett (QB, PIT)
Kenny Picket was on the injury list until Wednesday afternoon with a rib issue, so I'm in no hurry to roster him this week against a Tennessee team that is ninth in the NFL in sack percentage (8.5%). Pickett certainly has the weapons in Johnson and Pickens, but hasn't been able to put together game consistently to be considered a fantasy starter. Pickett only has two games better than QB18 this season, but none have been better than QB14. Unless you are in a mega-deep or Superflex league, Pickett is best on the bench.
Will Levis (QB, TEN)
I was just as mesmerized by Will Levis' first start as anyone out there, but we have to keep our expectations in check going on the road against the Steelers. Could Levis have another QB1-worthy start in this game? Certainly, but I am much more comfortable using about 12 other quarterbacks over Levis in a short week on the road. This is still a team that rushed 54% of the time in Week 8 (fourth-highest on the week), and would prefer to control clock with Henry and Spears.
Titans officially ruled out QB Ryan Tannehill for Thursday night’s game vs. the Steelers. Rookie QB Will Levis starts again.
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) November 1, 2023
Jaylen Warren (RB,PIT)
Jaylen Warren has been getting more work on the ground, but where he really gets his value is in the passing game. Warren is ninth in targets and eighth in target share among running backs, resulting in 184 total receiving yards (11th among running backs). The problem is the Titans allow the fewest receptions to the position and the second-fewest receiving yards. Maybe he can find value as a deep-league flex, but that's the extent of it this week.
Treylon Burks (WR, TEN)
Coming off a zero catch, two target game, Burks continued his descent into irrelevancy this year. He only has a 8.0% target share this year and six total catches. With Hopkins around, Burks has fallen out of the offensive game plan.
Kirksey’s Thursday Night Football Picks
Current Spread: PIT -2.5, Total: 36.5
Going on the road against Pittsburgh is definitely not the same environment as playing a home game in a neutral script against Atlanta. How Will Levis handles the environment is the key to the game. I am looking for Tennessee to set the pace early with a healthy dose of Henry and Spears against Pittsburgh who are 27th with 137 rush yards allowed per game. Once that is complete, it opens up play-action for Levis who does have a strong arm and can hit Hopkins and Burks downfield.
The Tennessee defense has been improving while Pittsburgh's is declining. Add in the uncertainty of Kenny Pickett and this smells like a road game where the Titans can cover and push the point totals beyond a very lo 36.5 implied number.
Picks: TEN +2.5, OVER 36.5
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