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Fantasy football start em, sit em and lineup advice by Ellis Johnson. Matchup analysis for the Steelers vs Vikings in Week 14 of the 2021 NFL season.
Last week was filled with touchdowns, and more importantly, fantasy points. Unless you are a Vikings or 49ers fan, the world seems to have returned to normal. Even if you are a Vikings fan, you can’t watch Detroit Lions’ Head Coach Dan Campbell’s reaction to their first victory and not smile. It was a great week around the NFL, and more importantly, for fantasy.
Moreover, with the fantasy playoffs around the corner, it was a relief to see somewhat forgotten players returned to glory. George Kittle put his yards after the catch abilities on full display and David Montgomery carried the entire Bears offense. As always it seems, we also had the usual suspects in Jonathan Taylor and Justin Jefferson continue to light up the league.
As we head into the home stretch of the fantasy season, we can only hope that this fantasy fury continues for the upcoming month. We start the week with two teams that have found their way into several exciting games. The Pittsburgh Steelers travel to Minnesota to take on the recently humbled Vikings. The Steelers are coming off of a huge divisional win against the Ravens and the Vikings….well we all know who they lost to. Thank you for starting your week with my analysis. My name is Ellis Johnson and this is your RotoBaller Thursday Night Preview.
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Pittsburgh Steelers @ Minnesota Vikings - 8:20 pm ET
Notable Injuries
- Adam Thielen (WR, MIN) - Ankle - Out
- Dalvin Cook (RB, MIN) - Shoulder - Active
- Joe Haden (CB, PIT) - Foot - Out
Must-Starts for Fantasy Football Lineups
Justin Jefferson (WR, MIN): What happens when you lose your star running back and second receiver? The answer is easy if you have Jefferson. Last week, Jefferson caught 11 of his 14 targets for 182 yards and a score. Over his last four weeks, he is the WR1 for fantasy with 44 targets, 36 receptions, 577 yards and three touchdowns. That’s an average of 11 targets, eight receptions, 0.75 touchdowns, 144 yards, and 23.3 fantasy points. Trust me, you read that right: 144 yards per game. He’s the hottest receiver in fantasy right now and there is no way you aren’t starting him in a solid matchup against the Steelers.
Diontae Johnson (WR, PIT): From the hottest receiver over the last four weeks to the second hottest receiver. Over the last four games, Johnson is second in fantasy points, averaging 17.5 points per game. With the decline of gunslinging Ben Roethlisberger, we have seen Johnson skyrocket for fantasy. Johnson’s usage is unmatched as he has only two games with fewer than 10 targets and seven games with 12 or more targets (sounds like Cooper Kupp right?). Add in that he only has two games with fewer than 70 receiving yards and he becomes one of the safest options in fantasy. What has really spiked his performance recently is that he has doubled his touchdown output over the last three weeks. Coming off a two-touchdown game, Johnson is a WR-one this week against a non-existent Viking secondary that just allowed Jared Goff to throw for nearly 300 yards.
Najee Harris (RB, PIT): Is it pretty? Not really. Does it work? I guess so. Najee Harris is the definition of a talented player doing the most of his opportunities in a terrible situation. Despite his bleak 3.6 yards per carry, he is fourth in the league in rushing attempts and leading the position in targets. Regardless of the team around you, if you give this type of opportunity to a first-round talent, you’re going to get fantasy production. The Vikings are allowing the 11th most fantasy points per game to running backs. There aren’t many players who are almost guaranteed 25 touches and Harris is one of them. I would play him as a low-end RB-one this week.
Dalvin Cook (RB, MIN): I am not expecting Cook to play this week. This was how I initially started my analysis on Cook. However, in some wild turnaround, Cook is expected to play. Although positive, this is terrifying news for fantasy managers. Personally, I have little faith in Cook producing this week as the odds of reinjury and a committee backfield seem quite high. Having said that, I think the "start your studs" rule overtakes my suspicion that he will have a bad game. If you start Cook, I would take some Gravol before this game to help settle your stomach. It's a very risky situation and be sure to check on the news heading into this game.
UPDATE: Dalvin Cook is now being listed as a game-time decision, and there is optimism that he will be able to return this week sooner than expected.
UPDATE: Dalvin Cook is expected to be active and handle a normal workload.
Solid Options for Fantasy Football Lineups
Alexander Mattison (RB, MIN): Since it's looking like Cook will play, I don’t expect him to be fully healthy, which makes Mattison a Tony Pollard/Kareem Hunt-like flex play. Without Cook, Mattison has been great. In his three starts without Cook, he has managed over 19 fantasy points each time. Arguably, more importantly, he has had 20+ rushing attempts and at least three targets in each game. So why is he not a “must start”? Despite his usage and involvement, you need to look at his matchups. His three starts have come against the Lions twice and the Seahawks. These two teams are allowing the second and third most fantasy points to the position respectively. Although the Steelers' defense has not been what we expected against the run this year, they are certainly better than the Lions and Seahawks. This does not mean that Mattison won’t have a fine game, but definitely worth considering before locking him in for another RB1 performance. With Cook likely to miss again, Mattison finds himself as an RB2 for this week.
Kirk Cousins (QB, MIN): Kirk Cousins is a top-eight QB in fantasy this year. That’s a sentence I never thought I would have said heading into this season. The king of mediocre fantasy performances has turned himself into a fantasy starter and embraced his Captain Kirk nickname. Impressively, he has done this without huge performances, instead of being fairly consistent all year. He has not scored fewer than 15 fantasy points in the last five weeks and asserts himself as a perfect QB-two in Superflex leagues. The Steelers are a strong defense, however, they are not the defense of last year. Cousins should be able to find success at home this week and screams a QB12 finish this week.
Flex Considerations for Fantasy Football Lineups
Tyler Conklin (TE, MIN): In the absence of Irv Smith Jr., Conklin has been a fairly steady TE for those who are stuck streaming the position. Conklin has not had fewer than three targets in a game this season and has five games with six or more targets. Last week without Thielen, we saw him have a season-high nine targets. Although it has only been one game, with Thielen out Conklin may be in line for another high-volume week. He is a very safe TE option this week, however, his ceiling may be limited as he has only scored in two games this season.
Chase Claypool (WR, PIT): From the hometown of Abbotsford, British Columbia, Canada, Claypool has been the most affected by the decline of Big Ben. To no fault of his own, Claypool has only three weeks over 10 fantasy points. However, he has been seeing a decent number of targets with five or more in every game but one. Unfortunately, targets don’t show the whole picture as many of these were deemed “uncatchable.” Thankfully, this might be a “get right” game for this passing offense as the Vikings are allowing the most fantasy points and nearly 200 yards a game to the receiver position. In what is a perfect matchup, this might be one of the few times where you can start Claypool as a high-upside WR3 this week.
Ben Roethlisberger (QB, PIT): After watching Big Ben for most of this year, I am shocked he isn’t an instant “sit” for me this week. However, he had his best week for fantasy last week. This “best week” was only a mere 19 fantasy points, but he now has the sixth-best matchup for fantasy quarterbacks. It’s risky, and the floor is almost abysmal, but I like his receivers in this matchup, which could make for a serviceable fantasy performance from the veteran QB. If you’re stuck, he is a play. However, he still might not crack my top 20 QB’s in my rankings this week.
Consider Sitting for Fantasy Football Lineups
K.J. Osborn & James Washington (WR, MIN & PIT): The “sits” this week are the auxiliary pieces of these offenses. Both these players are talented receivers, however, there are already a lot of fantasy mouths to feed in this matchup. With Thielen missing last week, Osborn had four receptions on seven targets for 47 yards and a score. James Washington, on the other hand, only had one target last week. Of these two players, Osborn is the most intriguing. However, I don’t think either are particularly interesting outside of a high-upside dart throw this week.
Pat Freiermuth (TE, PIT): Freiermuth has battled his way into the discussion of best rookie tight end this season. He is the TE14 on the season and has 9 or more fantasy points in five of his last seven games. Freiermuth is an interesting option for fantasy managers, and he has proved to be one of Roethlisberger’s favorite targets in the endzone. He can be looked at if you are desperate for a TE this week, however, the Vikings are only allowing eight fantasy points a week to the TE position. Although it is tough to sit a fan-favorite player, I might look elsewhere this week. For example, I would rather start Conklin on the other side of the ball over Freiermuth.
Last week, we managed to split on our picks. We hit on the Spread but missed on the Over/Under. This week I like the line a lot. I think the Steelers always get lines that assume they are the Steelers of old, and thankfully a tight divisional win last week ensures this trend will continue. I also think the Vikings are being overlooked based on their recent loss to the Lions. Although it was a bad loss, it was also divisional. The tight matchups between divisional rivals for both these teams last week have seemed to inflate the line for this week. This is a Vikings team that has kept up with some of the best in the league. At home, in a matchup with huge playoff implications, I think the Vikings return to form. I hope you all have a great week, and I’ll see you next Thursday!
Ellis’ Picks: Vikings -3.0 (11-4), Over 43.5 (10-5)
Career record: Spread (20-13), Over/Under (19-14)
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