Fantasy Football Start 'Em, Sit 'Em - Super Bowl Matchup Analysis

Welcome back RotoBallers to our Super Bowl matchup analysis and Start Em, Sit Em column for fantasy football. And then there were two. Each conference began with 16 teams vying for a spot in the big game, but after 18 weeks of regular season football and three rounds of playoffs, only one remains. Perhaps we shouldn't be surprised that the Kansas City Chiefs will be defending their title, but after a subpar regular season, it was easy to write them off. Nevertheless, they're back and primed to repeat for the first time since the New England Patriots in 2004-2005. Standing in their way is the San Francisco 49ers, who were the best team in the NFC for the majority of the year, especially when their key starters were healthy. It's a rematch of Super Bowl LIV when they met four years ago. However, the personnel on both sides, particularly for the 49ers, is quite different. The one consistent is of course the duo of Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce, who continue to sit atop the league at their respective positions when it matters most. Note that all the matchup data is from the regular season.

For anyone new to the column, we'll analyze Super Bowl LVIII, helping you optimize your fantasy lineups for whatever format or competition you're in. Check back regularly for any updates on player injuries or other pertinent information. I want to express my gratitude for some of the great resources that helped me write this article each week such as RotoBaller's player pages, rbsdm, Pro Football Focus, Rotovitz, FTN Fantasy, Pro Football Reference, NFL Next Gen Stats, DraftKings Sportsbook, and Fantasy Points, along with all of you for reading this article throughout the 2023 season.

There are tons of fun playoff challenges and DFS competitions you can join this time of year with great prizes. If you have any additional lineup questions, follow me on Twitter/X @JoshCon, and feel free to ask away. Let's dive into the matchups.

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Matchup Analysis - Super Bowl

San Francisco 49ers vs. Kansas City Chiefs (Located in Las Vegas)

Spread: 49ers -2.0
Implied Total: Chiefs (22.75) vs. 49ers (24.75)
Pace: Chiefs (20th) vs. 49ers (32nd)
Chiefs Off. DVOA: 25.9% Pass (8th), -5.4% Rush (17th)
49ers Off. DVOA: 57.7% Pass (1st), 17.3% Rush (2nd)
Chiefs Def. DVOA: -7.2% Pass (5th), -1.7% Rush (27th)
49ers Def. DVOA: -9.4% Pass (4th), -10.1% Rush (15th)
PFF Coverage Grade: Chiefs (20th) vs. 49ers (3rd)
PFF Rush D Grade: Chiefs (21st) vs. 49ers (10th)
Offensive EPA/Play: Chiefs (11th) vs. 49ers (1st)
EPA/Play Allowed: Chiefs (6th) vs. 49ers (10th)

Matchups We Love:

Christian McCaffrey (RB, SF)

Each and every week, we've opened the matchups for San Francisco with this man. McCaffrey rarely disappoints and the NFC Championship Game was no exception. He gashed a stout Detroit defense for 90 yards and two scores on the ground while hauling in four passes for 42 yards. He would've had a hat trick of touchdowns if he hadn't landed awkwardly on his neck/shoulder at the end of a run. Instead, Elijah Mitchell plunged forward for an easy score. McCaffrey has racked up 260 yards scrimmage yards and four trips to the end zone on 48 touches in two playoff contests. He's the engine of the offense and gives them their best shot to dethrone the champs. You can lock him in for 100 scrimmage yards and at least one touchdown.

Deebo Samuel (WR, SF)

Samuel's health was one of the biggest storylines entering their outing against the Lions. After it was announced he'd play, you wondered how involved and how effective he'd be. In the end, he played 77% of the snaps while leading the team in targets (nine), receptions (eight), and receiving yards (89). He also ran the ball three times, which was something that you'd assume they would've eliminated if his injury was severe. Kansas City's secondary is elite, particularly L'Jarius Sneed, so Samuel's versatility matched with his catch-and-run ability make him and McCaffrey the perfect tandem to deploy in the passing game around the line of scrimmage and over the middle of the field.

Isiah Pacheco (RB, KC)

It's hard to think of Pacheco in even the same stratosphere as McCaffrey, but his production as a runner hasn't been that far off. He's been a true workhorse with 63 carries in their three playoff contests for 254 yards and three touchdowns. It's strange to envision the Chiefs repeating with Pacheco as the primary reason why, but there's a strong possibility it unfolds that way, especially given the numbers the 49ers have yielded on the ground. They've allowed 318 yards and three rushing touchdowns in the past two outings with their opponents averaging 5.6 yards per carry. It figures to be another fantastic day for Pacheco with a shot to put his team over the top on the biggest stage for the second straight year. Jerick McKinnon was activated from injured reserve, but it's not a guarantee he's out there. In fact, the most recent reports suggest he's more likely to miss the Super Bowl.

UPDATE: McKinnon has been listed as questionable while starting guard Joe Thuney has been ruled out again.

Travis Kelce (TE, KC)

King Kelce keeps earning that moniker. He was extremely impressive, catching 100% of his 11 targets, including an incredible first down conversion to keep their scoring drive alive. He totaled 116 yards and a touchdown, acting as a security blanket for Mahomes while proving to be too much for the Ravens. He's on track to go down as the greatest of all time at the position after passing Jerry Rice's postseason reception record. Plus, he gets a juicy matchup as the 49ers were allowing the sixth-most points to tight ends during the final six weeks of the regular season before giving up a touchdown from the Packers' tight end group and nine receptions for 97 yards to Sam LaPorta. You can count on him to lead the team in receiving for a third straight time.

Matchups We Hate:

Chiefs Secondary WRs

Kudos to Marquez Valdes-Scantling for coming up with a huge catch to ice the game. It was essentially all he did, but it was important from an NFL perspective. Beyond him, Justin Watson had one reception and Richie James failed to haul in his lone target. Justyn Ross and Mecole Hardman Jr. totaled four snaps with zero targets while Kadarius Toney and Skyy Moore were held out due to injury. Although not according to Toney, who claimed he wasn't hurt. He's off the injury report this week while Moore is off the injured reserve list but is still questionable to play. The drama and ineptitude surrounding this group are shocking when you consider they're one win away from back-to-back Super Bowls. It's a similar strategy as last week here, Valdes-Scantling remains a dart throw while the rest are non-factors.

UPDATE: Moore is off the injury report and should be good to go for the Super Bowl.

Other Matchups:

Brock Purdy (QB, SF)

Purdy doubled down on his second-half heroics, coming through in the clutch yet again. Make no mistake, his playmakers had his back, but he could've easily fallen apart after a rough first half with his team down 17 points. In contrast, he led them on five consecutive scoring drives (three touchdowns and two field goals), completing 12 of his 15 (80%) passes for 146 yards and a score, averaging nearly 10 yards per attempt. Furthermore, he converted two critical first downs with his legs, running for 31 yards, which was a theme throughout the night. It'll be his first time getting this far, but he seems ready for the challenge.

Brandon Aiyuk (WR, SF)

Aiyuk made a ridiculous catch that deflected off of the defender's helmet. He finished the drive off with a trip to the end zone three plays later. Those accounted for two of his three receptions, which was a bit surprising considering he had eight targets, but his targets were much deeper than Samuel's with an aDot of 19.88 compared to five. Aiyuk is likely to make two or three key plays for the offense, but the consistency probably won't be there given the coverage from Sneed and his aDot.

George Kittle (TE, SF)

Kittle was one of the bigger surprises, finishing with only two grabs for 27 yards on three targets. He played 97% of the snaps but showed up on the injury report with a toe issue after the game. He does tend to operate across the middle of the field, which is ideal given the talent the Chiefs possess outside, so he could easily break off a long run or show up with a big day. His range of outcomes is wider than most players in this matchup. He's also dealing with a toe injury that won't limit his availability but could impact his performance.

Patrick Mahomes (QB, KC)

Mahomes was patient and decisive, which is a credit to his evolution as a signal-caller. He even referenced the way Tom Brady won some of his playoff games during his career, demonstrating an understanding that you need to adapt to win. He played to the strength of their team, which is the defense, while dominating time of possession, especially in the first half. Establishing an early lead while keeping Baltimore's offense off the field was the optimal approach and he executed it to perfection, completing his first 11 passes. From an NFL perspective, there's zero doubt Mahomes is the best of the best when the playoffs arrive. However, when it comes to fantasy, he's still a little bit lackluster given the way this team is built. The over/under has hovered around 47 since it opened, which implies about three touchdowns for Kansas City. Mahomes could certainly be responsible for two of those while throwing for about 250 yards and adding 15 to 25 yards on the ground.

Rashee Rice (WR, KC)

Rice blew up against Miami but has since quieted down. He had four receptions for 47 yards against the Bills before catching eight passes for 46 yards against the Ravens. The volume was great to see, but he was utilized as more of an outlet for Mahomes last week given the pressure he faced. He's still the best bet after Kelce to make an impact, but lacks the same ceiling we saw earlier in the year.

Injuries:

Jerick McKinnon (groin)

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