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In fantasy football, identifying potential breakout stars can give you a powerful edge over your competition. As we look ahead to the 2024 season, several second-year wide receivers are destined to make a notable impact. Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Demario Douglas, and Zay Flowers are three names every fantasy manager should have on their radar.
These players showed flashes in their rookie seasons and are now in prime positions to take things to the next level. With new offensive schemes, improved quarterback play, and increased opportunities, Smith-Njigba, Douglas, and Flowers have the potential to be significant contributors to their respective teams and fantasy rosters alike.
Fantasy managers must pay close attention to these second-year risers as they draft their teams. Understanding the situations that could lead to their success is critical for draft day. Let's dive into why Smith-Njigba, Douglas, and Flowers should rise in 2024 and how they can be valuable assets to your fantasy lineup.
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Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Seattle Seahawks
Jaxon Smith-Njigba, the first wide receiver selected in the 2023 NFL Draft, joined a Seattle Seahawks team already rostering two established wide receivers, Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf. Initially, many viewed this as challenging for the rookie, but Smith-Njigba displayed promise in his first season.
In 2023, the Ohio State alum posted 63 receptions on 93 targets for 628 yards and four touchdowns. He averaged 8.8 fantasy points per game in PPR leagues and totaled 149.8 points for the season.
Despite his solid performance, former offensive coordinator Shane Waldron did not appropriately use Smith-Njigba. His shallow average depth of target (aDOT) of 6.4 yards, paired with his expansive use in screen plays and short-target situations, restricted his impact.
The Seahawks have experienced significant changes heading into the 2024 season, which could greatly benefit Smith-Njigba. The team dismissed head coach Pete Carroll and his run-first mentality, bringing in Mike Macdonald as the new head coach and Ryan Grubb as the offensive coordinator. Grubb, known for his pass-centric scheme from his time at the University of Washington, is an authority at using slot wide receivers.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s year two season is going to be so lit. pic.twitter.com/nXwf7vDMbH
— TheOGfantasyfootball (@TheOGfantasy) December 19, 2023
The change at OC is good news for Smith-Njigba, who played 68% of his snaps in the slot last season. Grubb's University of Washington teams ranked in the top 5 for pass attempts over the past two years, marking a shift toward a more pass-heavy offense for the Seahawks.
The Texas native's role in the offense is further solidified by the current condition of the Seahawks receiving corps. Tyler Lockett, entering his age-32 season, has witnessed his yards per target decline since 2021.
While Lockett remains a helpful asset, his age and diminishing performance make Smith-Njigba a sneaky draft target. Metcalf, at 26, is at his peak and complements Smith-Njigba's skill set. Last season, Metcalf registered 1,114 yards and eight touchdowns, while Lockett posted 894 yards and five touchdowns.
With Geno Smith as the quarterback, the team has the ability to support two 1,000-yard receivers. Smith-Njigba is in an excellent place to break out. His impressive sophomore season at Ohio State, where he outproduced Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave with 95 receptions for 1,606 yards and nine touchdowns, shows his potential for high-level production.
The talented wideout missed most of his junior season in college (his final season) due to a hamstring injury. In 2023, the Round 1 draft pick broke a bone in his left wrist during the preseason, which required surgery and kept him on the sideline for about a week. Despite these past injuries, he still had a productive rookie season.
Smith-Njigba ranked 61st among wide receivers in PPR points per game and saw a 17% target share. As he enters his sophomore NFL season, the improved offensive scheme under Grubb, combined with Lockett's aging and the lack of deep competition from other receivers, makes the former 20th overall draft pick a viable late-round flyer in fantasy drafts.
Demario Douglas, New England Patriots
Demario Douglas quickly became a vital contributor for the New England Patriots after being chosen in the sixth round of the 2023 NFL Draft. Douglas made the most of his opportunities in a season where the Patriots faced significant challenges, including inconsistency at the quarterback position and an all-around dismal passing game.
Pop finished as WR64 in PPR leagues, averaging 7.7 fantasy points per game with 107.2 total fantasy points over the season. The midseason loss of wide receiver Kendrick Bourne to an ACL tear significantly increased Douglas' value, allowing him to step up and become a key target in New England's offense.
Looking forward to the 2024 season, the former Flame is in a prime position for a significant leap, especially with the arrival of quarterback Drake Maye. As the third overall draft pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, Maye brings a promising future to the Patriots.
DeMario Douglas breaking ankles 💀pic.twitter.com/4yKjeYY6cn
— SleeperNFL (@SleeperNFL) October 1, 2023
The team drafted wide receivers Ja'Lynn Polk and Javon Baker, injecting fresh talent into the receiving corps. This sets the stage for an exciting and potentially game-changing season for Douglas and the Patriots.
The depth at wide receiver remains mediocre, with Bourne recuperating from his ACL injury and veteran K.J. Osborn joining the team after a drop in production over the past few years. JuJu Smith-Schuster is coming off a subpar 2023 season, during which he only posted 29 receptions for 260 yards and one score in 11 games. He is not guaranteed a roster spot, further clearing the way for Douglas to excel.
The sixth-rounder's performance last season, leading the team with 561 receiving yards without scoring a touchdown, emphasizes his potential as a primary choice in the Patriots' passing game. With 68.4 percent of his targets coming from the slot, the Liberty product showed his short-range target capability.
With Bourne sidelined in 2023, Douglas stepped up, averaging 6.9 targets per game in his last nine games. This target volume indicates that the new offensive coordinator, Alex Van Pelt, will probably lean on the 23-year-old wideout. Improved quarterback play from rookie Mayo, or the veteran presence of Jacoby Brissett, will likewise sweeten Douglas' fantasy outlook.
The uncertainty around the New England wide receivers room works in Douglas' favor. He stands out as the potential WR1 for the Patriots, prepared to pounce on the increased opportunities. His ability to make plays after the catch and his role as a target in the slot makes the youngster a valuable late-round flyer in fantasy drafts.
Zay Flowers, Baltimore Ravens
The Baltimore Ravens' 22nd overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft immediately impacted the team. He stepped into an important role right away, leading the Ravens in targets (108), receptions (77), and receiving yards (858).
Flowers also displayed his versatility by out-targeting veteran tight end Mark Andrews on a per-game basis, with 6.8 targets compared to Andrews' 6.1. Despite Baltimore's run-heavy offense, Flowers finished 32nd among wide receivers in PPR points per game, demonstrating his potential in the Ravens' passing game.
The team switched from offensive coordinator Greg Roman to Todd Monken before the 2023 season. Monken's system is expected to increase the pass-game volume, which should benefit Flowers significantly. Last season, Baltimore ranked 30th in total pass attempts, but with Monken at the helm, there is room for this number to grow.
Lamar Jackson, who had career highs in passing attempts (457) and passing yards (3,678), still led all quarterbacks in rushing yards. Flowers, with his 9.1 average depth of target (aDOT) and impressive yards after catch (391), is well-positioned to capitalize on this improved passing volume.
Zay Flowers 💣 pic.twitter.com/Ps1is0wA8b
— PlayerProfiler NFL (@Profiler_NFL) September 17, 2023
Flowers' performance was outstanding in the postseason, where he was the focal point of the Ravens' aerial attack. In two playoff games, he hauled in nine of 13 targets for 156 receiving yards and a score, accounting for 25 percent of the team's receptions.
This strong showing in crucial games highlighted his potential as a primary target. His 2023 season was likewise marked by his ability to break tackles, forcing 21 missed tackles. The first-rounder also has reliable hands, evidenced by a 74.1 percent catch rate and a contested catch rate of 54.5 percent.
Heading into the 2024 season, Flowers is locked in as the team's WR1. Odell Beckham Jr. is no longer on the roster. The 23-year-old's familiarity with the offense and his proven production ability should make him a high-end WR2 in fantasy drafts.
The addition of Devontez Walker, who is more of an outside vertical threat, should not hinder Flowers' role as the primary target. Additionally, Rashod Bateman has shown promise during organized team activities (OTAs), but Flowers remains the heart of the receiving corps.
With his speed (4.42-second 40-yard dash), tackle-breaking ability, and a year of NFL experience, Flowers looks poised to build on his solid rookie year and become a top-24 option in fantasy football.
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