Every Running Back With Overall RB1 Upside for Fantasy Football - Christian McCaffrey, Breece Hall, Bijan Robinson, more

For many years, finding an elite running back has been the goal of fantasy football managers everywhere. With the NFL limiting running back workloads, finding elite rushers is getting harder with each passing year. Nonetheless, it’s still imperative that you find a top-end back if you want to win your league’s title.

While there are many running backs to choose from in your draft, only a few have a chance to be true difference-makers. Ideally, you want to find a back with a realistic chance to finish as the overall RB1. Historically, this gives you a massive edge over the rest of your league. Therefore, it’s crucial to target the correct players.

Make sure you follow RotoBaller on X and check out RotoBaller.com for all your fantasy football needs. Let’s take a few minutes and examine all the running backs who have a chance to finish as the overall RB1

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Christian McCaffrey, San Francisco 49ers

McCaffrey enjoyed another fine season in 2023. He surpassed 2,000 scrimmage yards and scored a whopping 21 total touchdowns en route to another overall RB1 finish.

MERRY CHRISTMAS CHRISTIAN MCCAFFREY MANAGERS 🎄

He caps off a 14.5(!) point drive with this touchdown 😳pic.twitter.com/x8YkQoEo5V

— NFL Fantasy Football (@NFLFantasy) December 26, 2023

He does enter his age-28 season in 2024, but it’s hard to put too much stock in this. McCaffrey hasn’t shown any signs of decline and is still the best pass-catching back in the league. Although he is dealing with a calf injury, he should be ready for Week 1, so gamers can pencil him in as the first running back off draft boards and not look back.

Bijan Robinson, Atlanta Falcons

Robinson enjoyed a fine rookie season, but finishing as the overall RB9 and RB16 in fantasy points per game was not what fantasy gamers had in mind when selecting him in the first round. Even still, the rookie showed his potential during the 2023 season.

BIJAN ROBINSON TAKES IT 71 YARDS TO. THE. HOUSE. 🏠 pic.twitter.com/Fz3Be4rNAK

— NFL Fantasy Football (@NFLFantasy) January 7, 2024

2024 is a new year and brings new life for Robinson. Raheem Morris was hired as new head coach and he tasked former Rams offensive coordinator Zac Robinson with turning around the offense. This is great news for Bijan Robinson’s fantasy football prospects as Zac Robinson comes from a system that is very fantasy-friendly for running backs and traditionally utilizes one bell-cow back (see Todd Gurley and Kyren Williams).

Expect to see Robinson and that eighth overall draft pedigree on full display this year.

Breece Hall, New York Jets

Just a year removed from ACL surgery, Hall finished as the overall PPR RB2 last season. He again displayed the familiar game-breaking speed we saw from his rookie 2021 season. Hall’s situation has improved heading into 2024. Aaron Rodgers is set to return, the team added Tyron Smith to bolster the offensive line, and signed Mike Williams to improve the receiving game.

Rodgers remains a pocket passer, and Hall should continue seeing targets at a high rate. His big-play ability paired with his pass-catching chops arguably makes him the next-best choice at running back after McCaffrey. Should the Jets offense reach new heights with Rodgers under center, don’t be surprised if Hall can overtake McCaffrey as the RB1.

Jahmyr Gibbs, Detroit Lions

Gibbs is a home-run hitter and has the type of big-play ability that fantasy gamers love.

Jahmyr Gibbs with a Touchdown 🤩🔥pic.twitter.com/nVfIBXH0Tu

— Alabama DieHards (@DiehardsAlabama) October 31, 2023

He finished as the PPR RB10 despite being in a timeshare with David Montgomery. It’s exciting to think about the possibilities for Gibbs if he can wrestle more touches away from Montgomery in 2024. Based on Gibbs’ draft capital and his play last year, it’s only a matter of time before he completely takes over this backfield. When he does, Gibbs will be among the top fantasy football running backs.

Saquon Barkley, Philadelphia Eagles

Barkley gets to play behind one of the best offensive lines in the league after joining the Philadelphia Eagles this offseason. Philadelphia ranked as Pro Football Focus’s (PFF) third-best run-blocking offensive line in 2023. This is a massive upgrade for Barkley as the Giants ranked 30th in this same metric. After finishing 10th in Next Gen Stats' Rush Yards Over Expected (RYOE) and 13th in Rush Yards Over Expected Per Attempt (RYOE/ATT), Barkley appears to have plenty of gas left in the tank. It also tells us that we shouldn’t judge Barkley too harshly on last year’s stats as New York’s offensive line was truly awful.

The seventh-year running back now gets to play alongside Jalen Hurts, A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, and Dallas Goedert. This is undoubtedly the best situation of Barkley’s career. It’s salivating to think of what he might accomplish in this offense. He is a solid RB1 to target in all drafts and should return a top-5 finish for fantasy managers. His role in the passing game will determine his true ceiling. If Barkley receives a healthy dose of targets, he could make a surprise run at the RB1 crown.

Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis Colts

2023 was not Taylor’s best season as he averaged a career-low 4.4 yards per carry. However, it’s of little concern for 2024. Taylor is the Colts’ clear RB1, and he is primed for a bounce-back season.

JONATHAN TAYLOR 49 YARD TOUCHDOWN!
pic.twitter.com/6tUo35MGgQ

— SleeperNFL (@SleeperNFL) January 7, 2024

His rushing efficiency should see a boost playing alongside Anthony Richardson, but Taylor could see his rushing touchdowns take a hit as Richardson displayed a clear nose for the end zone as a rookie. It’s also unclear how many targets Taylor sees since rushing quarterbacks typically don’t target running backs at a high rate. These are fair concerns, but Taylor should still finish 2024 among the top backs. If he continues scoring touchdowns and sees a healthy dose of targets, then Taylor can finish as the RB1 for the second time in his career.

Kyren Williams, Los Angeles Rams

Williams was fantastic in 2023. He finished sixth in RYOE and was one of only two backs to average over 21 PPR fantasy points per game. The other? Christian McCaffrey. That’s pretty good company.

The main question surrounding Williams is the presence of rookie Blake Corum. Los Angeles wants to avoid overworking Williams this year and drafted Corum for that very reason. The rookie is one of the more productive collegiate backs in recent memory, and his presence on the roster clouds Williams’ 2024. All indications so far in camp suggest that Williams will remain the team’s starter to begin the year.

Williams’ fantasy finish will hinge on Corum’s role. If the rookie forces some kind of timeshare, then Williams will disappoint. If Corum remains on the bench, then Williams will remain an elite fantasy option.

De’Von Achane, Miami Dolphins

Achane might be the most efficient running back we’ve ever seen. Here are his finishes last season in several advanced metrics (among 49 running backs with 90+ carries):

1st in PFF Elusive Rating
1st in PFF Breakaway %
2nd in RYOE

This is a special player.

De'Von Achane IS TOO LETHAL 🔥

Dolphins with the 76-Yard TD

(via @NFL)pic.twitter.com/7COUgtHj32

— B/R Gridiron (@brgridiron) October 8, 2023

It’s unclear what kind of usage Achane will see in Year 2. Given how productive he was on limited touches as a rookie, it seems safe to assume Achane will have a larger role this season. He doesn’t need 300+ touches to make a run as fantasy’s top back. His efficiency makes it possible that he could do so even in some kind of timeshare.

Ultimately, it comes down to Achane’s health. If he stays on the field, he’s talented enough to produce a top fantasy season even on limited touches. Should he receive an RB1 workload? Achane would be a league-winning pick.

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