RADIO
Mock draft pundits don’t tell us which players are good. The league will do that for us.
Oregon’s Troy Franklin was the poster child for that in the 2024 NFL Draft. Predicted by many to be a late first or early second-round pick, Franklin did not hear his name called on Day 1. Day 2 came and went. He ended up being selected with the second pick of the fourth round.
Despite that, there is still a lot to like about Franklin’s game as he embarks upon his rookie season in Denver with his former college quarterback.
College Production
There's no need to fret about chemistry issues with Franklin's new quarterback. He's been on the receiving end of Bo Nix's attempts for the last two years.
Together, they put up noteworthy to impressive numbers. Franklin's 61 catches for 891 yards and nine touchdowns in his sophomore season are great but fail in comparison to the numbers for his final season: 81 receptions, 1,383 yards, and 14 scores. That was the sixth-most yards and third-most touchdowns in college football last season. As a result, Nix enjoyed the best season of his two-stop collegiate career en route to becoming a first-round draft pick.
"And now a deep shot..."
46-yard connection from @BoNix10 to @TroooyyyyyyTroy
ORE 28, STAN 6 (Q3 | 8:54)#GoDucks
📺 @Pac12Network pic.twitter.com/jHGcFUbC9M
— Oregon Football (@oregonfootball) October 1, 2023
Franklin consistently improved throughout his collegiate career, had eye-popping advanced numbers (2.93 receiving yards per pass attempt), and displayed elite speed and explosiveness on tape. So, why didn't he live up to the Day 1 or Day 2 draft projection?
There are concerns that Franklin only profiles as a vertical threat, a one-trick pony. While height isn't an issue (6-foot-2), his 184-pound frame (176 pounds at the NFL Combine due to the flu) may struggle against physical cornerbacks and secondaries. If his acceleration doesn't gift him the required separation from defenders, catches will be few and far between. He lacks the physicality to beat cornerbacks to the football at the catch point.
Franklin also doesn't profile as a strong blocker or yards-after-contact wide receiver. That's not to say he can't rack up yards after the catch, but it will need to be done in space. He won't be bowling over many NFL safeties, especially if he wasn't doing it in college.
Rookie Year Situation
We've already discussed who will throw passes to Franklin during his rookie season, barring something unforeseen and Zach Wilson or Jarrett Stidham beginning the year as the QB1. What about the rest of the roster, specifically the passing game?
Head coach Sean Payton continues to tweak the roster to get the players that fit his brand of football. Russell Wilson is, of course, gone. Jerry Jeudy joined his former quarterback in the AFC North following a trade to the Cleveland Browns. Outside of those skill players and center Lloyd Cushenberry III, the offensive roster remains largely intact.
Alongside Franklin, former Lion Josh Reynolds is the notable addition to the wide receiver room. Tim Patrick hopes to return after a two-year absence due to separate ACL and Achilles tears. Promising third-year tight end Greg Dulcich could also factor into the target distribution formula now that he's healthy again. Marvin Mims Jr. is the favorite to start opposite Courtland Sutton.
Broncos signing WR Josh Reynolds to two-year deal worth up to $14M. (via @MikeGarafolo) pic.twitter.com/CEKDRkRzzh
— NFL (@NFL) March 27, 2024
That's potentially a lot of hands involved in the passing game. That list doesn't include the running backs, mainly starter Javonte Williams. Nearly 69% of Nix's pass attempts last year at Oregon were behind the line of scrimmage or a short-area throw. He loves to check the ball down. Williams and Jaleel McLaughlin should get plenty of looks out of the backfield (Samaje Perine as well if he's not a training-camp roster cut due to the selection of Audric Estime).
Franklin primarily operated outside for the Ducks and will likely do the same as a professional. However, he lined up as the slot for about 13% of his snaps during his junior season. When matched up against slower safeties and linebackers, Franklin shined. Payton may consider similarly deploying Franklin from time to time.
Fantasy Football Outlook
Puka Nacua and Amon-Ra St. Brown may be recent success cases, but there aren't many wide receivers who succeed with a Day 3 draft capital. These players aren't drafted to be starters or immediate contributors, there's not a lot invested financially, and there are typically holes in their game. General managers will tell you that they knew all along about the talent of these late-round gems, but it's essentially a bonus if they become stars.
Since 2000, 386 WRs have been drafted in rounds 4-7 of the NFL Draft.
Just 14 of them (3.6%) have managed a career PPG of 10 or higher. And arguably only 7 of this group have been real needle-movers in fantasy.
There is no reason to spend a 2nd on Troy Franklin or Javon Baker. pic.twitter.com/4rGFjfPOY0
— Paul Patterson (@paulpattersonff) May 2, 2024
The entire fantasy football community is searching for the next Puka Nacua after he broke rookie receiving records in Los Angeles. The rookie production of Nacua won't happen again for a long, long time. But we'll keep looking.
Franklin and Patriots fourth-round pick Javon Baker are the popular late-round choices to return fantasy football value in Year 1. Each possesses unique qualities that aren't often found in other wideouts in this class. With a messy wide receiver depth chart and an unproven quarterback, Franklin has an uphill battle to be that guy. He will break a long touchdown or two with his speed but there will probably be little to no consistency.
In dynasty formats, Franklin's real-life draft capital tanked his fantasy football capital. He's now being selected at the tail end of the second round. Before the NFL Draft, there were arguments for him going a whole round earlier. His athleticism, agility, and speed still scream upside but it could be an arduous adventure getting there.
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