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Andrew Ball looks at Pittsburgh Steelers wide receiver Roman Wilson's fantasy outlook for the 2024 season. Where is Roman Wilson worth drafting in redraft and dynasty leagues?
Mike Wallace. Emmanuel Sanders. Antonio Brown. Martavis Bryant. JuJu Smith-Schuster. Diontae Johnson. George Pickens. Roman Wilson?
The Pittsburgh Steelers have a lengthy history of drafting highly productive wide receivers in the middle-to-late rounds of the NFL Draft. They hope Michigan’s Roman Wilson is next in the lineage. There have been some misses (James Washington, Sammie Coates, etc.) so it’s far from a guarantee, but Wilson has some similar attributes to the ghosts of Pittsburgh’s past.
With the departure of Johnson, there’s a noticeable hole from last year’s depth chart. There should also be noticeably better quarterback play in 2024. However, there will be a notorious playcaller (at least in the fantasy football world) that he’ll have to overcome to be consistently productive.
College Production
Through two games of the young college football season, Roman Wilson seemed to be on his way to becoming a Biletnikoff Award finalist. He scored five times in those contests, totaling 10 catches and 167 yards. The pace slowed down tremendously when Michigan faced stiffer Big 10 competition. The flashes were still there (four catches, 58 yards, two touchdowns against Nebraska, and nine catches for 143 yards against Purdue), but Jim Harbaugh and company turned to their defense and running game to secure victories.
The wideout finished his senior season with team-leading marks in catches (48), yards (789), and receiving touchdowns (12) in 15 games. The reception and yardage totals don't pop off the screen, but that was the nature of the offense. Imagine Wilson on a wide-open offense like Oregon or Washington. His numbers may have rivaled Troy Franklin or Ja'Lynn Polk.
It's not a difficult situation to dream up. Wilson possesses elite speed, quickness, and agility. His 40-yard dash time of 4.39 seconds matches early draft picks, Xavier Legette and Ladd McConkey. Movements pre and post-snap provide quick separation from defenders in man-to-man schemes and a high football IQ lets Wilson settle into empty zones. Largely operating out of the slot, Wilson won consistently on all three levels, boasting a 66.7 completion percentage on targets of 20+ yards. Despite his size (5'11", 185), Wilson competes as an aggressive blocker in the run game.
Roman Wilson 🥰😍 pic.twitter.com/paCzvahYsm
— Ben Fennell (@BenFennell_NFL) February 5, 2024
How will Wilson adjust to expanded targets in the NFL? Can he win matchups on the outside against bigger, more physical cornerbacks or will he be contracted to the slot?
Rookie Year Situation
Is 35-year-old Russell Wilson cooked or is he ready to reignite the stovetop? Regardless of what you think about the nine-time Pro Bowler at this stage in his career, he is an upgrade over Kenny Pickett in the Steel City. Longtime members of the roster have noticed.
Jaylen Warren on having Russell Wilson and Justin Fields as Teammates:
“It’s a night and day difference I would say With their leadership. They bring a lot they help out. They tell us how to run the route and they’re really on it when you don’t run it the certain way. They’re… pic.twitter.com/bjcBRuidNZ
— Matthew Luciow (@matthewluciow92) May 2, 2024
Wilson was fantasy football's QB9 in 2023 before his benching that marked the beginning of the end with the Broncos. His touchdown rate jumped from 3.3% in 2022 to 5.8% in 2023, similar to his career average. And yet, his top wide receiver, Courtland Sutton, barely squeaked inside the top 30 for fantasy points in games that Wilson started.
Pittsburgh head coach Mike Tomlin has relied heavily on two things in his extended tenure with the team: defense and the running game. With Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren, the Steelers finished fifth in run percentage in 2023. Offensive coordinator Matt Canada was let go in November last season. Tomlin doubled down on his winning formula when hiring Canada's replacement, tabbing former Atlanta Falcons head coach Arthur Smith to call plays. The Falcons finished right behind the Steelers in run rate last season.
So, Pittsburgh will establish the run and George Pickens sits atop the wide receiver depth chart. While the path to consistent playing time is wide open (Calvin Austin III, Van Jefferson, and Quez Watkins are the competition), there may not be a lot of opportunities to go around for Roman Wilson early on. At least this is nothing new for the rookie, who watched his Wolverines rely on running back Blake Corum en route to a National Championship.
Fantasy Outlook
One of the top performers at the Senior Bowl, Wilson cemented his status as a top-100 NFL Draft pick and happened to wind up in a city that traded away one of their starting receivers, Diontae Johnson, in the offseason. Like Johnson, Wilson just finds ways to get open. He could develop into a first-look receiver on must-have down-and-distances.
Wilson often draws comparisons to two different NFL receivers: Marvin Mims Jr. and Tyler Lockett, both of whom have also played with Russell Wilson. The jury is still out on Mims, but Lockett established himself as one the most underrated receivers in football year after year. That is the best-case scenario for Wilson. He'll never size up to the prestige of receivers like A.J. Brown, Mike Evans, and Justin Jefferson. But Lockett has tallied at least 950 yards in over half of his nine NFL seasons. That would be a tremendous career for Wilson.
Guess who?! 😏@TDLockett12 takes it to the end zone for this 63-yarder!
📺: #TENvsSEA on CBS pic.twitter.com/ElGrL9Ldja
— Seattle Seahawks (@Seahawks) September 19, 2021
For the immediate future, Wilson's outlook depends on his quarterback and offensive scheme. If quarterback Wilson has enough left in the tank, the wideout Wilson can cobble together a 50 or 60-catch rookie season. If Pittsburgh struggles to win early in the season, Justin Fields could take over as QB1. He couldn't support a second wide receiver in his Chicago days. Pickens may be the only receiver worth rostering in Pittsburgh if that comes to fruition.
In dynasty formats, Wilson is projected to be selected toward the tail end of round two of rookie drafts. He may not have as high of a ceiling as some fellow rookies, like Adonai Mitchell, but the floor won't fall out from under him or his fantasy managers.
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