Fantasy Football Rookie Spotlight: Michael Penix Jr.

One of the more shocking moves of the NFL Draft came when the Atlanta Falcons used the No. 8 overall pick on Washington quarterback Michael Penix Jr. Penix going in the top 10 was a surprise, but the thing that pushed it over the edge was that the Falcons had just invested big money in Kirk Cousins.

We'll get to that whole situation later. First, we'll look at Penix's journey to the NFL and what he theoretically brings to the field.

Below, you'll find our fantasy football rookie profile for Atlanta Falcons quarterback Michael Penix Jr.

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Michael Penix Jr.'s Path to the NFL

Like a number of the top quarterback prospects in this class, Michael Penix Jr. used the transfer portal to his advantage to help him make the kind of leap needed to become a first-round pick.

Penix played parts of four seasons at Indiana, but never played in more than seven games during that time. His best season there in terms of yardage was in 2020, when he completed 56.4% of his passes for 1,645 yards with 14 touchdowns and four interceptions.

Injuries plagued Penix's time in Bloomington, with a pair of torn ACLs that kept him from showing his full potential with the Hoosiers. But that all changed when Penix transferred to Washington before the 2022 season.

MICHAEL PENIX 92 YARD TOUCHDOWN!! pic.twitter.com/V1FUKqb5ho

— JPAFootball (@jasrifootball) October 29, 2023

Finally healthy for his two-year stretch with the Huskies, Penix blossomed. He led FBS in passing yards per game in his first season with the Huskies, and overall he completed 65.4% of his pass attempts during his time with the program, throwing for 67 touchdowns and 9,544 yards in 28 games.

What Michael Penix Jr. Brings to the Falcons

There's a whole lot to like about Penix's game. Among all the quarterbacks in this year's class, he might be the best at pushing the ball down the field, showcasing great arm strength as well as touch on his deep ball. He can find his man deep with ease.

Penix has struggled with his touch when he's not throwing deep, as he fires balls out a little fast. That can lead to drops in the short and mid-range games because of issues adjusting these throws.

One issue stemming from the multiple ACL tears is that Penix is pretty much stuck in the pocket these days. He isn't someone who extends plays with his legs or who can be used on designed run plays.

All in all, Penix is one of the most pro-ready quarterbacks from this class. After six years in college, he's ready to contribute from Day 1 in the NFL, which is where projecting what his NFL career looks like becomes an issue. The current makeup of the Falcons roster doesn't really give Penix a shot to play immediately.

Path to Playing Time

Here's where things get really complicated.

Back in March, the Falcons signed Kirk Cousins to a four-year, $180 million deal with $100 million of that guaranteed. Cousins is coming off a torn Achilles in his final season with the Vikings, but the Falcons still felt good about giving him a huge deal.

And honestly, they should have felt good about that! In 2022, Cousins threw for 4,547 yards and 29 touchdowns for the Vikings, completing 65.9% of his passes. The Falcons have some great skill position players and needed an upgrade at quarterback to get to the next level. Cousins was that upgrade.

MP9@themikepenix pic.twitter.com/Fouv2BSXY5

— Atlanta Falcons (@AtlantaFalcons) May 9, 2024

That's not to say the Falcons shouldn't have added a young quarterback. Cousins is heading into his age-36 season, so he's not the long-term answer for the Falcons. There's also no guarantee that he'll be able to get back to the level he played at before. Still, the team invested heavily in him this offseason and playing Penix in 2024 is definitely a worst-case scenario for the team. I'd also argue that playing him in 2025 isn't what Atlanta will want to do, either.

So, if things work out how Atlanta wants with Cousins, Penix wouldn't get a shot at being the team's quarterback until he's 26 or 27. It seems like a weird choice to go with an older quarterback instead of taking a project at QB instead.

2024 Fantasy Football Outl0ok

There are two different ways we can talk about Penix from a fantasy football perspective in 2024. Let's get the first one of those out of the way now.

That scenario is the one where Kirk Cousins returns to his pre-Achilles tear level and starts 17 games for the Falcons. In that world, Penix is obviously a fantasy non-factor. In redraft leagues, you shouldn't roster a player who isn't going to touch the football field.

The other scenario is one where Cousins isn't the starter for some reason. Maybe he gets hurt again. Maybe he ends up being really bad in his return from the Achilles injury, though I don't expect that to be the case -- Cousins isn't a mobile quarterback, so if he loses some movement from the injury, that won't change how he plays football.

In a world where Penix is forced to see the field, does he have fantasy upside? Sure -- like I said, he's a fairly pro-ready quarterback with a lively arm who'll have Drake London, Darnell Mooney, and Kyle Pitts to throw the ball to. The Falcons are a playoff contender with Cousins under center, and they'd likely still be playoff contenders with Penix, though the path to the postseason is a little tougher in the latter scenario.

Penix could be a solid QB2 option if he's pressed into service. If anything happens to Cousins, I'll likely throw some waiver claims on Penix because of his upside. Still, that doesn't change the fact that outside of a 14-plus team Superflex league where you're rostering upside backup QBs, Penix shouldn't be drafted in redraft leagues in 2024.

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