RADIO
Draft capital matters for fantasy football players, but more so early in drafts with a 0.576 correlation for top-10 picks and fantasy points per game for wide receivers over the past five seasons. For context, the correlation plummets to 0.004 for picks 11-32, with a slightly better correlation (0.131) to PPR/G for Rounds 5-7 at the receiver position. Unfortunately, the receivers that went in the fifth round or later don't spark confidence besides a few outliers lacking consistency in their careers.
Since 2019, 14 receivers drafted in the fifth round or later scored 50 fantasy points in their rookie seasons, with six scoring over 100. Puka Nacua breaks the chart, with many of us chasing the highs of Darius Slayton, Darnell Mooney, and Hunter Renfrow in dynasty and redraft leagues. Dontayvion Wicks is receiving tons of buzz in the offseason as the Year 2 receiver to target later in drafts on the Packers, with Demario Douglas having rookie competition on a revamped Patriots offense.
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The data suggests rookie receivers can produce when drafted in the fifth round or later in the NFL Draft. However, the chances remain low of them breaking out in Year 1 and sustaining success. Let's examine this rookie receiver and why he might warrant more intrigue than the market indicates for redraft and dynasty formats.
College Production
Though Jamari Thrash's metrics don't pop off the page, he posted decent production and underlying data across the board. Thrash played at Georgia State for four seasons before transferring to Louisville for his final season. He peaked in his fourth year at Georgia State with a 42 percent receiver dominator and 3.74 receiving yards per team pass attempt. At Louisville, Thrash posted the second-best receiver dominator (28 percent) and receiving yards per team attempt (2.32) of his career.
Some of Thrash's top comparisons based on production, draft capital, and workout metrics include Marvin Jones Jr., Romeo Doubs, and Khalil Shakir. Thrash played out wide 89.2 percent of the time, showing he might be a smaller receiver who plays outside. While Thrash's metrics might not excite us, the film proves he can separate and use his route-running ability to get open.
Jamari Thrash pic.twitter.com/yBcxshWK3G
— JetPack Galileo (@JetPackGalileo) March 20, 2024
Whenever we find underwhelming metrics, the film might uncover a few concerns for the offense or the quarterback throwing the player the ball. Louisville quarterback Jack Plummer struggled to throw the ball accurately. That's partly due to Plummer being under duress quite often. Plummer often held the ball too long, 2.8 seconds, leading to negative plays via sacks with a worrisome 18.2 percent pressure-to-sack rate in 2023. On a positive note, Plummer and Thrash connected when the quarterback had a clean pocket, as Thrash showed he could separate in tight coverage via his route running and release.
Rookie Year Situation
It's unlikely for Thrash to make an impact in Year 1 with Amari Cooper, Jerry Jeudy, Elijah Moore, and David Njoku eating up most of the volume through the air. The Browns acquired Jeudy via a trade for a fifth- and sixth-round pick. Shortly after the team acquired Jeudy, he restructured his contract and signed an extension with the compensation backloaded in 2025 and 2026, with an out in 2027.
Cooper, Jeudy, and Moore will likely begin the season as the top trio in three-receiver sets. The Browns also have some previously hyped prospects in Cedric Tillman and David Bell waiting for their chance, so Thrash will need to raise eyebrows early and often.
The Browns ranked tied for 15th in pass rate at 58 percent, and they'll likely attempt to use a balanced attack with Nick Chubb potentially fully healthy. In 2023, the Browns ran the 11th-most 11-personnel, meaning Thrash has a chance to battle for the WR3 spot. They ranked 23rd in percentage of targets to wide receivers at 56.1 percent, tied with the 49ers. Jeudy and Moore moving on from their original teams while somewhat underperforming might make the receiver group murky beyond Cooper, so maybe Thrash has a slight chance of making an impact in 2024.
Fantasy Football Outlook
Thrash seems valued as a late fourth-round rookie pick in 1QB and Superflex leagues. That's prime territory for high-upside picks, which Thrash provides based on the film. Since Thrash performed better against zone coverage, he might thrive in a slot role for the Browns initially in his career, though he played out wide in college. Thrash only converted 15.8 percent of his contested targets in 2023, but I expect him to use his route running to separate and make contested catches in the NFL. For redraft leagues, Thrash is a name to monitor since he's a low-risk, high-reward type player.
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