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Fantasy football outlook for Jacksonville Jaguars wide receiver Brian Thomas Jr. for the 2024 season. Joey Pollizze looks at where Brian Thomas Jr. is worth drafting in redraft and dynasty leagues.
Former LSU wide receiver Brian Thomas Jr. entered the 2024 NFL Draft as one of the best prospects in the class. After struggling to put much production in his first two college seasons, Thomas broke out in a big way in his final college campaign in 2023. That year ultimately helped raise his draft stock.
The Jacksonville Jaguars then traded back in the 2024 NFL Draft and selected the LSU product with the 23rd overall pick. Thomas was the fourth wide receiver off the board in the draft.
The 6-foot-5 playmaker will now catch passes from quarterback Trevor Lawrence in 2024 and beyond. But, is Jacksonville a good landing spot? Will he see enough targets in Year 1 to be fantasy-relevant? Let's dive in and find out.
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College Production
Thomas wasn't incorporated much in LSU's game plan as a true freshman. He was stuck behind Malik Nabers, Trey Palmer, and Kayshon Boutte on the wide receiver depth chart, and quarterback Max Johnson also wasn't lighting up the scoreboard with his passing numbers. However, he still totaled 28 catches for 359 yards and two touchdowns as an 18/19-year-old freshman.
That production would stay about the same for Thomas in his sophomore year, where he caught 31 passes for 361 yards and five touchdowns. The wideout did get a quarterback upgrade in Jayden Daniels, but being stuck behind Nabers and Boutte on the depth chart hurt his season-long numbers. He finished fourth on the team in catches and fifth on the team in receiving yards.
However, following the departure of Boutte, Thomas finally got the opportunity to shine in LSU's offense. He continued to develop a connection with Daniels, which helped his breakout in 2023. He totaled career highs across the board with 68 catches for 1,177 yards and a whopping 17 touchdowns. Those 17 receiving touchdowns were the most in all of Division I college football last year.
The @Jaguars have an exciting 1-2 punch in Trevor Lawrence and 23rd overall pick Brian Thomas Jr. 👊@MoveTheSticks | @BrianThomas_11 pic.twitter.com/XssASngFVl
— NFL (@NFL) May 5, 2024
Thomas might have only combined for 127 catches for 1,897 yards and 24 touchdowns over his three college years. But, his incredible 2023 campaign made him an easy target in the first round of the upcoming 2024 NFL Draft -- given his size and ability to run after the catch.
Rookie Year Situation
The Jaguars desperately looked to upgrade their wide receiver room all offseason, especially after losing Calvin Ridley to free agency. The team did sign Gabe Davis to a three-year, $39 million deal in March, but it appears Jacksonville wasn't done adding more weapons around Lawrence. As a result, they selected Thomas -- one of the top wideouts in the class -- with their first-round pick.
The wide receiver position wasn't a complete need for the Jaguars heading into the 2024 NFL Draft, despite the team thinking it was. They had a solid receiving corps of Christian Kirk, Zay Jones, and Davis. Even Evan Engram could be added to that group fresh off a 114-reception season. However, Jacksonville still attacked the position early in the draft and got one of the best prospects in the class.
Brian Thomas Jr. 🐅
-was the universal WR4 in this class before the NFL Draft
-excelled at the NFL Combine
-then was the fourth WR taken in the NFL Draft as expected
-ended up in a solid landing spot
-continues to slip in rookie draft rankings 🤔🤨
— Joe Beldner (@JoeBeldner) May 7, 2024
While most analysts did not mock Thomas to the Jaguars during the draft process, there are a couple of positives working for the former LSU product in Year 1. For starters, the team released Jones immediately after the draft, meaning the rookie should see more opportunities and start on the outside for Jacksonville. On top of that, he will have a Pro Bowl quarterback throwing him passes.
That's why Thomas's landing spot with the Jaguars is a great one. With Jones and Ridley's departures this offseason, there are 110 catches and 1,337 receiving yards vacated in that Jacksonville offense. Even if the rookie finishes with half of those numbers (55 catches and 669 yards), he could be headed for a nice first season.
Fantasy Football Outlook
There is a real path for Thomas to be fantasy-relevant right away in fantasy. He should start on the outside for Jacksonville and establish himself as a true deep-threat target for Lawrence in Year 1. Like any rookie, though, there are going to be some growing pains for him, especially since he'll compete with Davis, Kirk, and Engram for targets. Nonetheless, there should be enough targets to go around for all four playmakers.
That's why Thomas could be a sneaky late-round selection in redraft fantasy formats this upcoming season. Being able to step into an offense that is losing 110 catches and 1,337 receiving yards from a season ago is big for his fantasy value. Of course, Davis will take a hit into some of those numbers as well, but if history repeats itself, the former Bills wideout will be very inconsistent throughout the year.
How did Jacksonville use their WRs in 2023, and how might one project Brian Thomas' deployment in 2024? The more real football context you consume and understand, the better you'll be at placing #FantasyFootball bets.
2023 Personnel Grouping Rate
11 (64%) 1RB 1TE 3WR (73% pass… pic.twitter.com/k6xWhfSRMb— Ray G (@RayGQue) May 4, 2024
For dynasty purposes, Thomas is a great target at the back end of the first round. He is tied to Lawrence for the foreseeable future and should eventually step in as the Jaguars' WR1 in the next few years. The 21-year-old wideout also has a path to playing time right away, which should only help his development as a rookie. He is my WR4 in rookie drafts this offseason.
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