RADIO
It's cool to see children of former athletes reach the professional level, especially when it involves high-end to elite athletes like Jerry Rice. Though this rookie receiver may not receive the hype of other high-end rookies, could he make an impact in the first two years of his career? It's funny because I wrote about three rookie receivers popping in yards per route run in one of my initial RotoBaller articles, which included the rookie spotlight.
Let's look at seventh-round picks or Day 3 selections that made an impact for fantasy purposes. When filtering by rookie receivers being drafted past pick 200, the names concern us besides one or two deep sleepers since 2014. Five receivers drafted at pick 200 or later compiled 50 fantasy points or more as a rookie. That list includes Demario Douglas, Bisi Johnson, Kelvin Harmon, Equanimeous St. Brown, and Andrei Iosivas. Douglas and St. Brown gave us brief moments to chase; however, a late-round rookie receiver rarely impacts fantasy football.
We'll look at Brenden Rice's collegiate production, the team context, and his fantasy football outlook for 2024. Can we find metrics to latch onto for possible success as a rookie? Is it worth drafting Rice or should we wait and see whether he becomes a waiver wire option?
College Production
Playing with the number one overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, Caleb Williams, for two seasons, Brenden Rice peaked as a senior. Rice had 45 receptions for 791 receiving yards and 12 touchdowns, translating into a 29 percent Receiver Dominator. While those numbers don't jump off the page, Rice played with a talented offensive squad, including Tahj Washington and MarShawn Lloyd. That doesn't include Williams using his legs to add the rushing upside.
Since Rice was drafted in the seventh round, his Box Score Scouting comparisons don't look so favorable. Rice's top comps included Doug Baldwin, who produced beyond expectations, and K.J. Osborn, who flashed at times, with the others looking like names we don't recognize.
Comparisons aside, let's look at Rice's collegiate profile. In college, he played mostly outside, with an 86.8 percent rate out wide in 2023, similar to his career average of 88.3 percent. Like Rice posted his most productive season, he averaged his highest yards per route run of his career at 2.75 compared to the collegiate average of 2.10. One could speculate whether Rice's peak senior season might be the outlier or something to build upon as a rookie.
Rice ranked 32nd in yards per route run at 2.75 behind Malachi Corley (2.78) and ahead of Jermaine Burton (2.74). He trailed his teammate Washington with 3.06 yards per route run (No. 19), but Rice still posted solid numbers. Among receivers with 50 targets, Rice joined a group that averaged 2.5 yards per route run against man and zone coverage, including several of the top 2024 receiver prospects.
That indicates Rice can produce against man and zone, as he ranked 54th in yards per route run against man (2.97) and 37th in yards per route run versus zone (2.91). Rice, being listed at 6-foot-3 and 210 pounds, fits an outside receiver with 86.8 percent of his routes coming lined up out wide. As a big-bodied receiver who makes plays downfield (15.1 aDOT), it's positive to see him win against man coverage. We saw some of that in the Senior Bowl practices and college.
Rookie Year Situation
The Chargers lost a few top receiving options, including Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, and Austin Ekeler, with Josh Palmer and Quentin Johnston being the two most notable returners. They drafted Ladd McConkey and Rice while adding DJ Chark, J.K. Dobbins, and Gus Edwards with those losses. Since Johnston underperformed as a rookie, the hype around McConkey has been through the roof.
That could hint at a deep sleeper appeal for Rice as a waiver wire pickup in redraft leagues. The Chargers ranked sixth in pass rate at 62 percent while running the sixth-most plays per game (67). We should bake in some regression in the plays per game and pass rate since there's an ambiguous backfield and receiver room. The Chargers ranked in the top half, with 62.9 percent of the team's targets going to receivers, ranking 12th in 2023. We'll see if that sticks with the massive overhaul in offensive personnel.
Fantasy Football Outlook
Considering the chances of a seventh-round rookie impacting Year 1, it's concerning since Demario Douglas would be the only receiver past pick 200 to post over 100 fantasy points. Only DeMarcus Ayers (who?) and Bisi Johnson had a target share of 10 percent or higher, with Douglas at 14.6 percent, as a rookie going past pick 200 in the NFL Draft since 2014. That suggests Rice might struggle to earn targets with the Chargers, given the draft capital for Johnston (Pick 21) and McConkey (Pick 34) at receiver.
Rice's Underdog ADP of pick 215.5, WR106, putting him near Isaac Guerendo, Dylan Laube, Aidan O'Connell, Tre Tucker, Josh Reynolds, and Rasheen Ali. The chances of one of these players making a fantasy impact for one or two games seems unlikely, so tread with caution if you draft Rice in best ball or deep redraft leagues. While NFL defenses mostly play zone, there's some signal when a receiver wins and produces against man-to-man defense. Rice fits the profile of winning downfield and against man defenses, so he might earn opportunities if familiar receivers Palmer or Johnston struggle to begin the season.
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