Fantasy Football Rookie Spotlight: Bo Nix

The first 12 picks of the 2024 NFL Draft were heavy on the quarterbacks as six players heard their names called. Of those 12, former Oregon Ducks quarterback Bo Nix was the final selected when the Broncos took him at pick 12.

Will Bo Nix start for the Broncos in 2024? What is the fantasy football upside for the former college star?

Below, you'll find our fantasy football rookie profile for Denver Broncos quarterback Bo Nix.

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Bo Nix's Path to the NFL

Bo Nix has been around the college football world for a long time at this point. College fans first heard his name back in 2019 when he was Auburn's starting quarterback as a true freshman. Nix threw for 2,542 yards with 16 touchdowns and six interceptions that year, completing 57.6% of his passes. He stuck around Auburn for three years, but he seemed to hit a plateau while with the Tigers.

Bo Nix PFF ranks out of 165 qualifying QBs
🔹Passing Grade: 1st
🔹Intermediate Grade: 1st
🔹Pressure Grade: 1st
🔹Adjusted Completion %: 1st
🔹Turnover Worthy %: 1st
🔹Deep Passing Grade: T-5th
🔹No Pressure Grade: 8th

Drafted into a good situation with Sean Payton

— Ben Cummins (@BenCumminsFF) May 1, 2024

That all changed in 2022 when Nix transferred to Oregon. Suddenly, he was asked to be a high-volume passer and he responded by completing 71.9% of his passes for a then-career-high 3,593 yards with 29 touchdowns and seven interceptions.

It was a good season, but it wouldn't have been enough to make Nix a first-round pick. What did that was his production as a senior in 2023. Nix completed 77.4% of his pass attempts for 4,508 yards and 45 touchdowns. He was picked off just three times. Nix also ran for six scores.

The improvement in Nix's accuracy is the main reason that his NFL stock has risen so much. He showed great touch in 2023 with the Ducks. Add in that he has good speed and can make things happen with his legs, and you can see the makings of a professional quarterback here.

What Bo Nix Brings to the Broncos

Arguably the biggest strength of Bo Nix is that he can make the short passes. It's a major part of how he led the FBS in completion percentage in 2023.

📞 Watch Bo Nix get the call as the Denver Broncos select him 12th overall.

Video courtesy @OregonFootball pic.twitter.com/woVGjz51ko

— Auburn Tigers | AL.com (@aldotcomTigers) April 26, 2024

That's a pretty big strength in the current NFL. As two-high safety looks have taken the deep ball away, being able to hit your marks in the short-yardage game has been very important. Just look at how Patrick Mahomes finished with 6.5 intended air yards per play, the lowest mark among quarterbacks who played the full season. The second lowest was another playoff quarterback whose team did really well: Jared Goff in Detroit.

Of course, you do need to be able to threaten defenses at least a little bit. That's one of the big questions with Nix. He's got a strong arm, but can he go through his reads and find receivers down the field? If the play breaks down, will he just take off? Or will he stand in the pocket?

Path to Playing Time

The Broncos moved on from Russell Wilson this offseason, concluding the two-year experiment to see if the former Seahawks star could put them over the top. It didn't happen, and the team decided to pay huge dead money to rid themselves of Wilson.

That opened up a clear hole at quarterback. The team added Zach Wilson and still has Jarrett Stidham, but neither of those are players who inspire a lot of confidence.

This job is all Nix's to lose. Stidham started two games for the Broncos last year, but he's a career 59.4% passer with eight touchdowns and eight interceptions. He's been in the NFL since 2019.

Troy Franklin selection also makes it clear who QB1 is. I see no reason why Bo Nix isn't the Denver Broncos week one starter.

— Nate Jackson (@NathanSerious) April 27, 2024

If someone other than Nix earns the starting role, I'd rather bet on it being former No. 2 overall pick Zach Wilson. While Wilson's struggled in three NFL seasons, completing 57% of his passes with 23 touchdowns and 25 picks, there's at least some potential for a resurgence.

Still, the Broncos aren't going to be a competitive team in 2024, so why not just throw Nix out there and see what happens? The fact the team drafted wide receiver Troy Franklin, Nix's college teammate, makes me even more confident of that. I fully expect to see Nix on the field in Week 1.

2024 Fantasy Football Outl0ok

Assuming Nix is going to start for the Broncos in 2024, the question becomes what Nix's potential fantasy value is. Is the former Auburn and Oregon passer going to be a potential fantasy sleeper in his first NFL season?

Maybe! Nix's short-yardage accuracy makes him my No. 4 player among the rookie quarterbacks in redraft leagues this year. Caleb Williams and Jayden Daniels are ahead of him, with J.J. McCarthy just a tad ahead. I'd rather have Nix over Drake Maye, and obviously I'd rank him ahead of Michael Penix Jr. since he won't be starting for Atlanta.

Still, the strength of the quarterback position across the league makes it hard to see Nix as anything but a mid-tier QB3 option. Translation: Nix is one of the worst fantasy options among NFL starting quarterbacks. I'd rather have anyone except Maye, Gardner Minshew, and maybe Russell Wilson and Daniel Jones.

That's not to diss Nix. It's just to acknowledge that fantasy managers need to maintain relatively low expectations for him as a rookie. Short passes to keep the chains moving are better for real-life football than they are for fantasy football unless you're hitting on those passes at a very high rate. Nix did that in college, but NFL defenses are a whole different story.

I do rate Nix a good bit higher in dynasty leagues. I think you can call him a low-end QB2 option over there, though I might be willing to put Maye over him if we're looking farther ahead. Maye's biggest issue this year is that the Patriots offense isn't built for his success, but that can change in future seasons.

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