RADIO
Week 4's Rookie Report told you to urgently buy Jacksonville Jaguars freshman wide receiver Brian Thomas Jr. We sure hope you did. The rookie smashed yet again and proved that rookies can be incredibly important pieces of fantasy football teams.
Thomas will probably start in most leagues after his consecutive week-winning performances in Weeks 4-5. His ADP was around 118 (around WR48) in full-PPR scoring. He had a solid performance in Week 1, and after that became an every-week starter for some teams.
He cemented his status as that even further with his subsequent efforts. After five weeks, he is the guy on his offense and is QB Trevor Lawrence's favorite target. The offense is scheming ways to get the ball to him.
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How Can I Find Rookie League Winners?
Luckily, the purpose of the column is to identify them for you and to point out previous hits to help convince you of their effectiveness. This column is the culmination of a lot of offseason research into statistics, film, training-camp news, beat writer following, and other efforts.
It's worth noting that players on this list who do break out can have subsequent bad games. For example, Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver Xavier Worthy started 2024 with a bang before putting up two lackluster efforts. Then, he broke double-digit PPR fantasy points in Weeks 4-5. His fantasy managers are unlikely to trade him for cheap.
Worthy didn't earn many targets in Weeks 2-3, leading to a dip in value that could be exploited. This may happen with other players as well.
Buy Window Slammed Shut: Brian Thomas Jr.
There isn't much more to say about Thomas. Fantasy managers who have him on their rosters are now unlikely to trade him for a cheap price and, with good reason, should demand a big return. Too bad now! Thomas is the fastest player in the NFL this year and one of the five fastest over the past seven seasons. Seriously.
Brian Thomas Jr. is on pace for:
75 RECs, 1350 Yards, 10 TDs#Jaguars Rookie Receiving Records
- RECs: 64 (Justin Blackmon)
- Yards: 865 (Justin Blackmon)
- TDs: 6 (Allen Hurns)
pic.twitter.com/UAEPMO7dzR— Daniel Griffis (@DanDGriffis) October 9, 2024
He's an absurd athlete and a fantastic football player. It's too late to get him for peanuts.
Buy Window Extended (Again): Jonathon Brooks
Nothing much to see here. Check last week's column. Carolina Panthers rookie running back Jonathon Brooks may not come off PUP this week, but he's still worth an IR stash. One rare take is that the team's starting center, Austin Corbett, is out for the season with an injury. Current lead RB Chuba Hubbard is playing well, but there's some important context.
Chuba Hubbard has been COOKING these last four weeks:
11.6 pts
27.9 pts
22.1 pts
12.4 pts and countingpic.twitter.com/6goiXdvL83— NFL Fantasy Football (@NFLFantasy) October 6, 2024
There have been wide-open holes in the middle. Corbett was having a fantastic season. It will be harder to find the running room with the backup center anchoring the offensive line. It remains to be seen how Hubbard will adapt, but his performance will likely dip. In addition, Brooks has much higher draft capital.
While the rookie is unlikely to be a workhorse back anytime soon, he should have a significant role in the offense after he ramps up his activity. He's potentially even cheaper now considering Hubbard's success and the fact he's still on PUP. He's worth a shot.
Great Waiver Add: Isaac Guerendo
While first-year San Francisco 49ers running back Isaac Guerendo hasn't been mentioned in this column yet, he's worth a waiver pickup. He got virtually no volume while second-string 49ers RB Jordan Mason was running the show, but he showcased his elite burst and acceleration after Mason was "pulled" from the game.
ISAAC GUERENDO. 76-YARD RUN TO START THE DRIVE.#SFvsSEA on Prime Video
Also streaming on #NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/Pt3BWP6JEF— NFL (@NFL) October 11, 2024
San Francisco head coach Kyle Shanahan knows how to scheme up success for running backs. Guerendo is very, very fast. There's not much else that needs to be said. He's worth a speculative waiver claim. If the Mason injury isn't serious, he might not do much this season, and he's already fumbled the ball, but he could have great production if he gets the opportunity.
Buy Window Extended: Bucky Irving
Last week's Rookie Report column described Tampa Bay Buccaneers rookie tailback Bucky Irving's Week 5 game, so there's not much need to elaborate further, though interestingly, lead running back Rachaad White is dealing with a foot issue and did not practice on Wednesday or Thursday.
Irving in the lead role is interesting. His volume hasn't been great, but if White misses time, he could be in line for a bigger workload. He's averaging 5.61 yards per carry, which is excellent efficiency. Tampa Bay doesn't have great run blocking this season, so his elusiveness could be important.
Run block and pass block composite ratings pic.twitter.com/qWWV7CDf3N
— Computer Cowboy (@benbbaldwin) October 9, 2024
He will likely split volume with third-stringer and second-year pro Sean Tucker, whose size could be an asset in pass protection, one of the traits head coach Todd Bowles specifically praised White for. If the lead back can't go, the rookie should lead the backfield. There may be a tad more urgency to buy Irving now.
Sleeper With Possible Breakout Coming: Adonai Mitchell
Last week's Rookie Report column mentioned Indianapolis Colts wide receiver Adonai Mitchell as a buy target. Things have now changed in his favor in Indy. It was recently announced that lead wide receiver Michael Pittman Jr. has a back injury and is under consideration for placement on injured reserve.
In another twist, second-string WR Josh Downs, after a great start to the season, is dealing with a toe injury and did not practice on Wednesday or Thursday in any capacity.
Michael Pittman Jr. (back) and Josh Downs (toe) observing today.
Downs did do some field work with the athletic training staff. pic.twitter.com/G6srx9geZE
— Kevin Bowen (@KBowen1070) October 10, 2024
This leaves WRs Alec Pierce and Mitchell as the next two pass-catchers on the depth chart for the Colts. Even if Downs can go, he typically occupies the slot, and in three WR sets, Pierce and Mitchell should play outside. Opportunity is knocking. The rookie had seven targets in Week 5 and even completed a pass for 24 yards.
Adonai Mitchell shake stem slice pic.twitter.com/v6Uj2faBi5
— JetPack Galileo (@JetPackGalileo) October 1, 2024
Mitchell's talent is clear. He's an excellent separator. He's just had drop issues and other problems with his game that he needs to clean up. He is available in 77% of Sleeper leagues and deserves to be on rosters.
Worth A Pickup: Ja'Lynn Polk
New England Patriots first-year wide receiver Ja'Lynn Polk has been close to making big plays that would have elevated his status in a big way. Luckily for us, he didn't. Now, he gets a massive upgrade over QB Jacoby Brissett, who probably shouldn't have started a game this season. Rookie QB Drake Maye will now lead the offense.
2 weeks in a row for Ja'Lynn Polk…..so close. pic.twitter.com/sBreAtE1QV
— Pats Buzz (@PatsBuzz) October 6, 2024
Fantasy managers should LOVE situations like this. It's a good thing for us that Polk was unlucky and didn't snag these passes. That means he's cheaper to acquire in many leagues and on waivers in plenty of others. Potential + Production = Expensive. Potential + Not Much Production = Cheap. That's what we care about.
He should not be on waivers in PPR leagues with 12 or more teams. Though it remains to be seen who Maye's preferred target will be, there's a great chance Polk gets the volume and quality quarterback play that makes him a worthwhile fantasy starter in the next few weeks.
Add With Urgency: Drake Maye
The third overall NFL Draft pick is finally getting his shot. New England Patriots head coach Jerod Mayo announced that it's the freshman's turn to lead the show. Maye has a rushing upside, bolded because it's so important. Washington Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels didn't have much of a buy window because of it.
“I hope Drake Maye stays safe behind that O-Line”
Drake Maye: pic.twitter.com/stm3p8nxLI
— Kevin Moore (@KMooreTV) October 9, 2024
The Pats QB of the future is probably faster than Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen. He's also an elite prospect. He's available in 86% of Sleeper leagues. That's ridiculous. He's worth it as your backup quarterback. He's a tremendous athlete. The upside is huge.
So What Should I Do If I Want To Win My League?
As time goes on, there are fewer rookies to chase. Players like the Jaguars' Thomas showcase their skills and become much less obtainable. Some freshmen players will play very poorly, and some may stay buried on depth charts, with breakouts to come later in the season.
But as always, identifying these players can give your team a huge edge and be a league-winning decision. The inaugural seasons of Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver Ja'Marr Chase and Los Angeles Rams wide receiver Puka Nacua should've proved that already, though the NFL has had a long injury of rookies smashing.
Do what you can to get these players for reasonable prices. They're worth it as lottery tickets for the going rate they currently demand.
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