2025 Fantasy Football Rookie Drafts: Best, Worst Picks In Rounds 1-4

You don't want to draft the below players, trust me. There are busts in every year's rookie class, and while some of them are tough to predict, others show clear signs that they aren't worth their capital.

Many players have great fortune in college, playing on great teams that elevate their production and thus the perception of how they are as a player. Others have to overcome terrible situations and still are able to succeed.

We'll break down the first type of player as well as any other soon-to-be first-year-pros in the NFL that won't live up to expectations.

• 2025 fantasy football rankings (redraft)
• Dynasty fantasy football rankings
• 2025 NFL rookie fantasy football rankings
• Best ball fantasy football rankings
• Quarterback fantasy football rankings
• Running back fantasy football rankings
• Wide receiver fantasy football rankings
• Tight end fantasy football rankings

Best Round 1 Pick: Tre Harris, WR, Ole Miss

Harris is the WR1 of this class. He's the best route-runner, dynamic after the catch, can make contested catches, is a big-bodied and physical WR, wins on deep routes despite not having elite speed simply due to his craftiness, and demolishes every opponent he plays against in 2024.

From Stats to Stars - 2025 Rookie WR Analytical Profile: Tre Harris (WR2)

Tre Harris stands out as an exceptional deep threat with impressive advanced metrics and one of the best production profiles in the class. Harris' skill set thrives in stretching the field while… pic.twitter.com/C7AAeuz9DG

— I Don’t Watch Film (Football Analytics) (@No_Film_FF) February 21, 2025

Everything about Harris' film and statistical production screams elite, but he'll be 23 before draft day so I guess he can't be good. At a position where the best route-runners are often highly productive even at age 30, there is zero concern for that here. The COVID years and NIL has made players enter drafts later. Harris is elite. I'd take him in the 1st round with zero regrets.

Worst Round 1 Pick: Kaleb Johnson, RB, Iowa

I've labeled Johnson as a bust candidate many times now. I criticized his lack of speed, poor elusiveness in tight spaces (though the offensive line constantly blocks wide-open lanes for him), poor tackle-breaking ability (though he does have some highlights with defenders that refuse to tackle properly), and poor explosiveness. The combine was a field day for highly athletic RBs to show off their burst, speed, and power.

A visual on how the 2025 RB class performed from a speed/acceleration perspective at the combine.

This chart uses the prospects 40 times, along with their 10 yard splits from said 40s to determine speed and acceleration.

+ Tuten blew away the comp
+ Kaleb Johnson📉
+ Some big… pic.twitter.com/xVjOHpwfWF

— Dataroma (@ffdataroma) March 3, 2025

It should come as no surprise that Johnson wasn't able to beat 4.5, but he ran a 4.57 official 40-yard-dash. He doesn't have the speed to run away from defensive backs, linebackers, or even some defensive linemen, so the long touchdowns he had in college probably won't be seen at the next level for him.

Johnson is another case study on why making big plays in college and putting up dominant stat lines doesn't mean a player will succeed in the NFL. On nearly all of his big plays, you see the blocking schemes and execution of blocks open up huge holes for Johnson.

And on the below play, in particular, you see some of the worst tackling attempts of all time. Stuff that would make Dick Butkus roll over in his grave, may he rest in peace, the legend.

Why people acting like Kaleb Johnson running a 4.57 is horrible. He is a power back. Look at this play and tell me that he isn’t a top 10 maybe even top 5 RB in this class.

pic.twitter.com/hmmM7SrCHs

— Matt Quatraro Bag Szn (@RoyalsbagSzn) March 3, 2025

The Big 12 division in college football has developed a reputation for terrible defenses, in particular, highlighted by the complete inability to tackle opposing players, especially running backs. This is not so in the league. Johnson will face defenders who are more athletic and faster than he is, and usually stronger.

He also didn't participate in the bench press or any of the other drills. In a stacked RB class, there was little reason to avoid these unless he knew he wouldn't test well and was risking dropping his draft stock even further. So Johnson was a product of great run-blocking, terrible defenses and tackling, and isn't explosive, doesn't have great strength, and isn't very shifty.

This is a deep, deep RB class. Johnson is my RB11 at best, behind Bhayshul Tuten, Ashton Jeanty, RJ Harvey, Dylan Sampson, Brashard Smith, TreVeyon Henderson, Quinshon Judkins, Devin Neal, Cam Skattebo, and Raheim Sanders. Taking him in the 1st round is one of the worst possible mistakes you could make.

Best Round 2 Pick: Bhayshul Tuten, RB, Virginia Tech

Tuten is now my RB1 of the class. He was previously my RB3, but his elite combine testing showed just how good he was. Turns out, it really was true, as I said, that he was ranked as the ~RB13 in rookie rankings because he went to Virginia Tech instead of Ohio State University.

Enjoy the last few days of Bhayshul Tuten being a fantasy sleeper before he lights up the NFL combine! 🚀🔥pic.twitter.com/8joR6Otf1x https://t.co/FrR4fVxmWg

— Matt FF Dynasty 🏈 (@MattFFDynasty) February 24, 2025

He has the full suite of skills you want from an NFL RB. He can break tackles with the best of them, is highly elusive, has solid receiving upside, is shifty, and has elite curvilinear acceleration to take horizontal runs vertically to the house. He also has track star speed, and can outrun NFL defensive backs.

My best comparison for him is rookie season Breece Hall. Tuten's upside is a lot higher than Ashton Jeanty's. If Tuten is available in the 2nd round, he is a generational steal in rookie drafts. I would be happy selecting him in the 1st round.

Worst Round 2 Pick: Shedeur Sanders, QB, Colorado

Sanders can't deal with pressure. His numbers are fine against the blitz, but those are largely irrelevant, as they're skewed by how well each blitz is blocked and the play-calling on those particular plays. While Sanders is highly accurate when there are no defenders in his face, when the heat is on, he often crumples completely and demolishes plays and even entire drives with poor decision-making.

Sanders is a poor athlete. Sanders’ lack of escapability shows up all over his film. Evading pass rush is a foundational skill for elite QBs in the modern NFL. On film, Sanders was often too slow or sluggish to escape from college pass rushers. pic.twitter.com/9KYSYgHy2I

— Coach Nail (@CoachLovesBall) February 28, 2025

Athleticism matters for quarterbacks, but even those who are poor athletes can succeed. It's more about awareness and decision-making in the pocket. Having a bad offensive line doesn't excuse terrible reactions to free rushers or pressure from either side, because opposing NFL defenses won't care at all how bad your OL is.

Sanders repeatedly exhibited lackluster responses to pressure from opposing defenses. Some of his plays were just ridiculous, as he'd attempt to evade pressure but would look sluggish while doing it. He regularly held on to the ball for too long and displayed a lot of Caleb Williams-esque circus clown plays where he took terrible hits and sacks.

I’m sorry, Shedeur Sanders is not a 1st round prospect and this is why. This is an egregious example of his pattern of taking too many BAD sacks. Having not learned as a three year starter to go down and not cost your team three points is alarming pic.twitter.com/6BddNQtoW6

— Anthony Russo (@Anthony_Russo97) December 29, 2024

I can already see the legions of fans of whichever team drafts Sanders fuming about how the offensive line is literally the worst in history. Sanders is an offensive coordinator killer in waiting. He'll probably get his OC fired within the first year or two of his tenure.

Best Round 3 Pick: Tez Johnson, WR, Oregon

Johnson ran a 4.51 40-yard-dash at the NFL Combine. Weirdly, that's basically the same time that Houston Texans wide receiver Tank Dell ran. And Johnson's profile is eerily similar to Dell, though Dell was a slightly better overall route-runner. But if Dell's rookie season tells us anything, it's that we should jump at the chance to draft players who have similar games to him.

TEZ JOHNSON’S ROUTES ARE NASTY.

😱😱😱

UNSTOPPABLE.

Looks a lot like Tank Dell’s route-running ability.
pic.twitter.com/jv0ORMUEvO

— MLFootball (@_MLFootball) January 29, 2025

He's a smooth, clean, and explosive route-runner who can separate well from all types of coverage. He has the long speed to break off big plays and the elusiveness with the ball in his hands to dodge NFL defenders and pick up extra yardage. He will get open early and often against NFL defensive backs.

He's flying under the radar right now for some reason. Dell-lite is absolutely worth a 3rd-round pick in rookie drafts, though. You should pick him.

Worst Round 3 Pick: Jalen Milroe, QB, Alabama

It should come as no surprise that in a weak quarterback draft class, there are multiple QBs on this list of potential bust. Milroe is not a good thrower of the football. He doesn't have good pocket awareness, is poor at escaping pressure despite all the athletic tools he possesses, has serious accuracy issues, and isn't someone who can consistently help an NFL team win games.

Jalen Milroe today @ the Senior Bowl practice.

Some good. A lot of bad.

This guys needs development that the Browns can’t give him pic.twitter.com/q8CIT9wmWF

— Derelict Sports (@DerelictSports) January 28, 2025

But in particular, his absolutely terrible accuracy stands out. It stands to reason that weaker prospects will get more attention when there isn't a ton of perceived talent in the class. But it's unlikely Milroe will ever get or retain a starting job for long. The best-case scenario for him right now seems to be if he's used in creative packages for his rushing upside as the Pittsburgh Steelers used their QB Justin Fields.

Any quarterback with substantial rushing upside is a player that the community wants to succeed. In general, though, accuracy can't be coached. A QB either has it or he doesn't, as minimizing and simple as it sounds.

What can be taught are things that relate less to the improvisational nature of the game, such as footwork, plays, reading defensive schemes, and the like, though many signal-callers don't progress much in these areas.

Alabama game film review: jalen milroe making a BAD decision here. backed up deep, 8 guys in the box, horrible fake, He keeps it. pic.twitter.com/GsZKNVUvxt

— Brent Skipper (@BSkip22) October 21, 2024

Poor quarterback decision making leads to absolute disasters, like a persistent inability to maintain drives, multiple-turnover games, an offense completely devoid of rhythm, and an inevitable benching and search for a new QB. It's hard to see Milroe ever getting the starting job and holding it for long.

The only hope is that he develops into someone with the rushing capabilities and barely-passable throwing that Fields exhibits. The problem is that no team wants a starting quarterback in that mold, and he'll still be best suited as a backup. The two good fantasy seasons Fields had led to losing records and eventual firings of many coaches from the Chicago Bears during his tenure there.

And it seems like Milroe's ceiling might not even be Fields, because the tape is bad. Fields' days at Ohio State were much more promising.

Best Round 4 Pick: Brashard Smith, RB, SMU

If you're lucky enough to get Smith in the 4th round... Jesus Christ, you are insanely lucky. This is a tentative spot here, because after his great combine performance, he'll probably rise up draft boards. But for now, it's possible that in some drafts he will fall this far.

Smith is the closest RB to Miami Dolphins back De'Von Achane in this class. He has elite burst and receiving upside for a running back, can run between the tackles well, is very elusive and has quick feet. A blend of Buffalo Bills RB James Cook and Achane in terms of size and athleticism, with receiving upside closer to Achane, is the best comp I can think of for Smith.

SMU RB Brashard Smith is dangerous with the ball. He is the perfect complementary RB to draft on day 2. pic.twitter.com/jmlUPsH2YZ

— Full-Time Dame 💰 (@DP_NFL) February 22, 2025

He's a weapon that is fantastic with any type of green grass in front of him. If he falls to the 4th round in any of your rookie drafts, he will be the steal of the draft. He is my RB5 currently, tied there with Tennessee Volunteers RB Dylan Sampson. Smith is easily worth a 3rd-round pick at any slot in rookie drafts, and I'd be willing to take him in the 2nd if there weren't so many other good options at RB.

Worst Round 4 Pick: Quinn Ewers, QB, Texas

Ewers is absolutely terrible. He's not good enough to be an NFL quarterback. After years of holding back the Texas offense and hurting his receivers' production, he's ready to head to the NFL to never get a starting job. Wait for Arch Manning to graduate and avoid this guy.

Quinn Ewers is so bad pic.twitter.com/MsepQP6Wgg

— 𝘙𝘑 (@RJLockedIn) February 21, 2024

It's criminal that they kept this man as the starter and forced Manning to wait. Simply criminal.

More Fantasy Football Analysis