RADIO
Week 6 is officially in the books. The first week with teams on Bye. We had the Falcons, Saints, Jets, and 49ers all off. This week we saw numerous injuries as well, meaning it'll be even more difficult to fill those starting lineups in Week 7 where six teams are on a Bye (Bills, Cowboys, Jaguars, Chargers, Vikings, Steelers).
In this weekly column, we'll be looking at players whose arrow may be pointing up, and players whose arrow may be pointing down based on the previous week's games. We'll try not to overreact, but instead, use relevant data to make informed decisions about certain players.
Here are the key risers and fallers heading into Week 7 (and beyond) of the NFL season.
Fantasy Football Risers for Week 7
Rashod Bateman, Baltimore Ravens
In his first career NFL game, Bateman tied Mark Andrews with a 22.2% target share. He did that while playing on just 65% of the snaps in a very positive game script in which the Ravens attempted just 27 passes. Essentially, there's no reason to believe he can't be every bit as good as Marquise Brown has been in this Ravens offense. If you're looking to acquire one of these wide receivers, Bateman would likely be the much cheaper option than Brown, who is currently the overall WR6 on the season. Don't let the four catches for 29 yards fool you, better days are ahead for the rookie wideout from Minnesota.
Kadarius Toney, New York Giants
You might be asking how or why Kadarius Toney is a riser despite playing just six snaps before re-aggravating his ankle injury in Week 6. Well, he still managed to draw three targets on just four routes run. That's a targets per route run (TPRR) rate of 75%. Tiny sample size, but the point still stands, if this guy is on the field, he's going to be heavily targeted, as we've seen the past three weeks. Sure, he had to exit the game early, but as long as Toney is healthy and on the field, he's going to see tons of targets from whoever is throwing passes for the New York Giants. Let's just hope the ankle injury doesn't keep him sidelined for very long.
Update: Toney is not expected to land on IR, and could miss just one or two games with the ankle injury
Jamal Agnew, Jacksonville Jaguars
Jamal Agnew? Seriously? Yes - seriously. Agnew has now played on 60% of the snaps in two consecutive games since the Jaguars lost D.J. Chark to a season-ending injury. In those two games, Agnew is averaging seven targets per game. In Week 5, he had a TPRR of 33.3%, including a red zone target. He followed that up in Week 6 with a respectable TPRR of 20.7%. With Laviska Shenault Jr. essentially filling the void left by Chark, Agnew has stepped into the old Shenault role, working in tandem with newly-acquired tight end Dan Arnold. As long as the Jaguars are throwing the ball north of 35 times per game playing from behind, I'd expect Agnew to continue seeing his fair share of targets from Trevor Lawrence. You could do much worse than Agnew in a PPR league as you make your way through the gauntlet of Bye Weeks.
Leonard Fournette, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
If you weren't aware, Leonard Fournette is now a "set-it-and-forget-it" RB1 for the remainder of the season. He has absolutely dominated touches out of the Tampa Bay backfield the past three weeks. In those three weeks, he's gotten 73% of the RB carries and 72.7% of the RB targets. Fournette is averaging a whopping 23.3 opportunities (carries + targets) during that stretch. He's getting the passing game work despite the Buccaneers playing with the lead the majority of the time. With news that the Bucs may be shopping Jones, Fournette looks like a league-winner considering where he was being drafted this season.
Darrel Williams, Kansas City Chiefs
Darrel Williams got the feature RB1 role Clyde Edwards-Helaire fantasy managers could only dream about in Week 6. He played on 72% of the snaps, logging 21 carries and getting four targets. He handled 86% of the RB touches and got both of the goal-line opportunities. CEH hasn't seen work like that since the first six weeks of his rookie season prior to Le'Veon Bell's arrival in Kansas City. Williams should be considered a top-15 RB while Edwards-Helaire is out with the knee injury. Favorable matchups against the Titans and Giants are on tap.
J.D. McKissic, Washington Football Team
McKissic played on a season-high 61% of the snaps in Week 6. Granted Washington was trailing, but it also looked like Antonio Gibson was having some issues with his shin injury. Gibson was questionable to play coming into the week, and it certainly looked like he was bothered at times throughout the game. That culminated in him playing on a season-low 39% of the snaps. McKissic not only saw a season-high 10 targets, but he also carried the ball a season-high eight times. He's now averaging 5.4 targets in his last five games and the schedule doesn't get much easier for Washington. Negative game scripts and Gibson's nagging shin injury should lead to many more opportunities for McKissic as the season progresses.
Other Risers: Sterling Shepard, Quez Watkins, Dallas Goedert, A.J. Green, James Robinson, Miles Sanders, Noah Fant
Fantasy Football Fallers for Week 7
Marquise Brown, Baltimore Ravens
Brown is the overall WR8 on a fantasy points per game basis this season, but there are a couple of reasons why I'd consider him a faller. It's not really because of him per se. It's more so because of the emergence of rookie wideout Rashod Bateman, combined with just how good the Ravens have been this season. Sure, the Ravens are throwing more in all situations this season, but at the end of the day, their identity lies with running the football. In two non-competitive games this season, Brown is averaging just five targets per game. In the other four competitive games, he's averaging 8.3 targets per game. I'm not suggesting Brown is doomed, but I am suggesting capitalizing on his inflated early-season value now before Bateman, who led all wide receivers in targets per route run (22.2%) in Week 6, potentially takes over as Lamar Jackson's favorite target in this Ravens' offense. Additionally, Baltimore's upcoming schedule isn't very daunting, which means we could see a more run-heavy approach, further limiting Brown's appeal in fantasy football.
DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, Seattle Seahawks
Much like Marquise Brown, this has nothing to do with the players, but everything to do with the new quarter, Geno Smith. Both Metcalf and Lockett had a 22.6% target share in Week 6, but neither topped 58 receiving yards for the game. It likely won't get better any time soon, as Wilson is set to miss at least another two games and possibly more. We shouldn't necessarily be benching either of these guys, but tempter expectations on Metcalf and Lockett while Smith is operating as the starting quarterback. A 6-0, 5-1, or 4-2 fantasy manager might take this opportunity to "buy-low" in hopes that Wilson returns sooner rather than later.
Antonio Gibson, Washington Football Team
See J.D. McKissic write-up above in Risers section
Jamaal Williams, Detroit Lions
Remember in Week 1 when Williams had 17 touches (nine carries and eight targets)? That seems like a pretty long time ago. Since Week 3 when he played on almost 50% of the snaps, his snap share has been trending down each week. In Week 6, that culminated in playing on just 30% of the snaps and getting a season-low six touch. Meanwhile, D'Andre Swift looks to be close to full strength after being brought back slowly from the groin injury that slowed him during the preseason. He's played over 70% of the snaps the last three weeks and played on a season-high 78% in Week 6. He got 20 opportunities to Williams' six, which was the biggest disparity in opportunities between the two tailbacks in any week this season. Williams is a drop candidate in Week 7 if you need to pick up guys as Bye Week fill-ins.
Kenneth Gainwell, Philadelphia Eagles
In Weeks 1-4, it looked clear Nick Sirianni was going to use rookie Kenneth Gainwell in the "Nyheim Hines role." He was playing on 35-40% of the snaps and got 41.4% of the RB opportunities (carries + targets). That workload has changed significantly over the last two weeks. In Weeks 5 and 6, Gainwell has played on just 23% of the snaps and handled just 24% of the RB opportunities. Meanwhile, Miles Sanders has played on an average of 80% of the snaps the last two weeks after playing on just 60-65% of the snaps in Weeks 1-4. It has become more clear-cut than ever who the Eagles trust in the backfield, and it's not Gainwell (at least right now).
Other Fallers: Jalen Reagor, Zach Ertz, Randall Cobb, Sony Michel, Tyler Boyd
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