RADIO
Four weeks down, 13 to go. Week 4 is now officially in the books. We have a lot of good information we can use to help make decisions as we head into Week 5 and beyond.
In this weekly column, we'll be looking at fantasy football players whose arrows may be pointing up and players whose arrows may be pointing down based on the previous week's games. We'll try not to overreact, but instead use relevant data to make informed decisions about certain players.
Here are the key risers and fallers coming out of Week 4 of the 2023 NFL season.
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Week 5 Fantasy Football Risers
David Montgomery, Detroit Lions
Montgomery missed Week 3 with a thigh bruise. In Week 4, many thought Jahmyr Gibbs would steal some work from him as a result, but that was far from the case. In fact, Montgomery appears to have solidified himself as the clear-cut 1A option in this backfield. He played on 71% of the snaps and had a 72.3% RB opportunity share. He turned that into 141 total yards and three touchdowns.
The Lions dominated the Packers in Week 4, which could have led to more opportunities for Montgomery. However, it just doesn't appear Detroit is interested in giving Gibbs many carries. As long as this team is playing with the lead, it's going to be the Montgomery show until further notice. Things could go exactly the same way in Week 5, as the Lions are 8.5-point favorites at home vs. the Panthers.
Khalil Herbert, Chicago Bears
There was a report that surfaced Sunday morning that said Roschon Johnson is expected to see an increased workload as the season progresses. Well, the exact opposite of that happened in Week 4. Herbert regained a stranglehold of the RB1 job in Chicago with a 79% snap share. He turned his 23 opportunities into 122 total yards and a touchdown.
Four straight relatively favorable matchups against the Commanders, Vikings, Raiders, and Chargers are on tap for Herbert and the Bears in the next four weeks. That means Herbert, who crushed it in Week 4, will likely have the opportunity to completely seize control of this backfield. And due to the plus matchups on the horizon, he could very well do just that.
Alvin Kamara, New Orleans Saints
Kamara is the PPR gift that keeps on giving. His 13 receptions for 33 yards on 14 targets netted 16.3 fantasy points. Per Jacob Gibbs, his 70% route participation in Week 4 was good for 3rd amongst all running backs. That's pure gold in full PPR leagues.
Kamara wasn't just used in the passing game, he also got 11 carries and churned out 51 rushing yards. His total RB opportunity share was 71.4%, which includes Taysom Hill's opportunities. So he played 75% of the snaps, had a 70% route participation, and handled 71.4% of the RB opportunities in his first game of the season. That kind of workload is what we come to expect from a fantasy RB1.
With Jamaal Williams (hamstring) out at least the next three games, Kamara has a chance to take complete control over this Saints backfield. And if he continues seeing those targets from Derek Carr, he's going to have one of the safest floors in full PPR leagues this season.
Isiah Pacheco, Kansas City Chiefs
Pacheco played on a career-high 60% of the snaps in Week 4 and tied a career-high with 23 touches. After averaging fewer than one target per game as a rookie, Pacheco is averaging three targets per game this season. Through four games, Pacheco is a fringe RB1. Impressive stuff for a 7th-round pick out of Rutgers who had to beat out a 1st-round pick out of LSU in Clyde Edwards-Helaire. Check out the expected fantasy points in Week 4:
And as Jacob Gibbs points out, his opportunity share in Week 4 was the highest mark in his career at 36%.
He's on a really good offense that puts up a lot of points and consistently plays with the lead. As long as Pacheco continues to lead the Chiefs' backfield in opportunities, he should continue to put up high-end RB2, and on occasion even low-end RB1 numbers this season.
Other Risers: Dalton Kincaid, Travis Etienne, Tyler Boyd, Breece Hall
Week 5 Fantasy Football Fallers
Raheem Mostert, Miami Dolphins
Raheem "Must-Start" no longer. For the first time this season, Mostert played fewer snaps than rookie backfield mate De'Von Achane. The veteran played just 43% of the snaps in Week 4, while Achane played on 60% of the snaps. And for the second straight week, Mostert had an RB opportunity share of less than 50%. Things are starting to shift in Achane's favor, in a big way.
Because it's the Dolphins, Mostert could still have value going forward, especially with Bye Weeks upon us. Don't for a second think this is the same Raheem Mostert from Weeks 1 and 2. Achane has usurped him as the RB1 in Miami.
Miles Sanders, Carolina Panthers
I get it, Sanders has been dealing with a groin injury. But...
He's being outplayed by Chuba Hubbard. And in Week 4, Sanders played on just 43% of the snaps and handled 50% of the RB opportunities. He's averaging just 2.93 yards per carry this season and has scored just one touchdown. The Panthers are bottom-5 in plays per game and bottom-10 in points scored per game.
Unless Sanders can average 6.7 targets per game as he did in Weeks 1-3 (hint: he won't), he won't be much more than an RB3-type moving forward. There's just not enough touchdown equity and efficiency in Carolina to keep his fantasy value afloat on a consistent basis.
James Cook, Buffalo Bills
I'm on record saying James Cook was a "must roster" RB this season. Through four games, he's the RB12, so a fringe RB1. Not too shabby for a guy who has only scored one touchdown. The problem in Week 4, however, is that the Bills turned to Latavius Murray and Damien Harris over half the time. Cook saw a season-low 40% snap share. Check out his utilization, especially in the passing game:
It's not that Cook won't be a top-20 back on a weekly basis. He very well could be. However, with two other very capable backs rotating in for half of the snaps, he's probably more of a back-end RB2 than he is a top-12 RB.
Similar to Mostert, he's still playing on a high-octane offense, but there are other very capable players in the backfield. We saw what happens when they produce. Cook saw just a 40% snap share in Week 4 in a game the Bills played with the lead. In order for Cook to really produce, we need that route participation up closer to 50%. One or two targets per game isn't going to cut it.
James Conner, Arizona Cardinals
In Week 1, Conner was a workhorse. He played on 84% of the snaps and handled 79.2% of the RB opportunities. In Week 2, the role remained similar, just with fewer targets. He played on 72% of the snaps and handled 82.8% of the RB opportunities. In Week 3 things started to change a bit. He played 64% of the snaps and handled 66.7% of the RB opportunities. His snap share and opportunity were very similar in Week 4 as well.
62% of the snaps and a 65% RB opportunity share isn't bad. The problem for Conner, however, is his route % has fallen drastically since Week 1. Check this out:
He no longer has the workhorse role he had last season or even in Week 1 this season. Emari Demercado has taken the passing downs and long-down-and-distance work away from Conner. In fact, in Week 4, Demarcado ran 18 routes to Conner's 12.
Now, the Cardinals haven't been nearly as bad as everyone thought they'd be with Josh Dobbs under center. So it's not all bad for Conner. However, we've become accustomed to his usage in the passing game. Gone are the days of 5+ targets. After five targets in Week 1, Conner has just five total targets in Weeks 2-4 combined.
Other Fallers: Jahmyr Gibbs, Kenneth Gainwell, Joe Burrow, CeeDee Lamb
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