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Fantasy Football Risers and Fallers - Week 12

Taysom Hill - Fantasy Football Rankings, Waiver Wire Pickups, Draft Sleepers

Adam Koffler's fantasy football risers, fallers, sleepers, and busts heading into Week 12 of 2024. He identifies players at RB, WR, TE with rising fantasy values.

Week 11 of the 2024 season is in the books. That means another week of cold, hard data to analyze. We’ll try not to overreact, but instead, use logic and reasoning as the foundation for our decision-making in the weeks ahead.

Each week, we’ll take a look back at the previous week to see if our risers and fallers are still rising or still falling. Heading into Week 11, our biggest risers were Jauan Jennings, Audric Estime, Chuba Hubbard, and Adonai Mitchell. Our biggest fallers were Tony Pollard, Raheem Mostert, Dallas Goedert, and Brian Thomas Jr. Jennings looked elite once again, firmly putting himself on the WR1 radar for the rest of the season. Sean Payton, meanwhile, made us eat dust by going back to Javonte Williams in Week 11. As far as the fallers go, Pollard's role continues to shrink as long as Tyjae Spears is healthy and playing, while Mostert can be dropped in most leagues.

Chase Brown would be in this article if not for the fact that we discussed his ascension two weeks ago. The same goes for Jennings. Now that we’ve recapped the previous week’s risers and fallers, let’s take a look at some of the biggest risers and fallers heading into Week 12.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy football rankings for 2025:

 

Week 12 Fantasy Football Risers

Taysom Hill, New Orleans Saints

The Saints are on a bye this week, but that shouldn't stop you from picking up Hill and stashing him for Week 13 and beyond. In Week 11, he showed a glimpse of what we can expect from him for the rest of the season, and it was glorious!

Maybe this usage isn't sustainable, but also maybe it is. The Saints are extremely short-handed right now without Chris Olave, Rashid Shaheed, Bub Means, Jamaal Williams, and Kendre Miller. Olave, Williams, and Miller may return at some point, but it's also possible they won't. And it appears interim head coach Darren Rizzi likes this guy even more than Dennis Allen (if you can believe that):

It wasn't just the gadget stuff, though. Hill also posted season-highs in snap share (55%) and route participation rate (60%). His 17 opportunities (rushing and receiving) and 10 targets were both career-highs. Look for his usage to remain elite coming out of the bye.

Rome Odunze, Chicago Bears

Odunze saw 10 targets in his first game without former offensive coordinator Shane Waldron. He also tied for the team lead in first-read target share (29.6%) and led all Bears receivers with 2.17 yards per route run, per Fantasy Points Data. The connection with Caleb Williams looked strong in Week 11.

Week 11 was the first time this season that Odunze out-targeted both DJ Moore and Keenan Allen with all three players active. There were only a handful of snaps Odunze was taken off the field, but in general, the Bears ran more three-wide receiver sets with Thomas Brown calling plays than with Waldron. That's good news for Odunze's rest-of-season outlook.

Jonnu Smith, Miami Dolphins

When Jonnu Smith runs routes this season, he gets targeted. Through 10 games, he has a target rate of 25.9%, per PlayerProfiler. That ranks ninth-best among tight ends. In Week 11, he ran a season-high 35 routes (92.1% route participation rate). And guess what? He was targeted eight times, which resulted in 101 yards and two touchdowns.

Since Week 7 (after the Dolphins' bye), Smith has been more heavily involved in the offensive game plan. Per Fantasy Points Data, he leads all Dolphins receivers in yards per route run (2.63) by a large margin and is second on the team in first-read target share (21.9%), behind only Tyreek Hill (23.8%).

Needless to say, Smith is a must-start tight end going forward given his more robust role and his ability to command targets in an offense that has put up at least 27 points in each of its last four games with Tua Tagovailoa under center.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Seattle Seahawks

DK Metcalf's return in Week 11 was supposed to turn JSN back into a pumpkin, but that wasn't the case. Instead, JSN looked very much like a 1A/1B situation with Metcalf, with Tyler Lockett a very distant third option in the passing game. If wide receiver guru Matt Harmon thinks it's a big deal, so should you:

JSN never eclipsed 63 receiving yards in any one game in his rookie season. This season, he's eclipsed the century mark three times, including doing so in each of his last two games. The chemistry between Smith-Njigba and Geno Smith appears to be growing every week, and JSN is being given more opportunities than ever to thrive.

Through 10 games, Smith-Njigba is the WR17 in fantasy points per game (14.8). That's ahead of Josh Downs, Jayden Reed, Terry McLaurin, Zay Flowers, and Darnell Mooney. Keep plugging him into your lineups with confidence.

Other Risers: Jerry Jeudy, Roschon Johnson, Cam Akers, Will Dissly

 

Week 12 Fantasy Football Fallers

Aaron Jones, Minnesota Vikings

Jones suffered a rib injury in Week 10 but was able to return to the game. Despite being completely off the injury report in Week 11, he was very much in a backfield committee with Cam Akers. He went from having a 76% RB opportunity share in Week 9 (before the injury) to just a 57% RB opportunity share this past weekend. And it wasn't pretty for Jones in Week 11:

With the Vikings having their bye early in the season (Week 6), it appears they're comfortable with Akers taking some of the workload off Jones' shoulders to keep their star running back healthy.

While that's probably a good thing for Jones, it's not the best news for Jones' fantasy managers. Of course, head coach Kevin O'Connell and the Vikings don't care about our fantasy teams, but we can still analyze what we're seeing in terms of usage.

Luckily for Jones and his fantasy managers, favorable matchups against the Bears (twice), Cardinals, and Falcons are on the horizon. Even with a managed workload, Jones should be able to maintain fantasy relevance so long as he's active and on the field. However, expectations should be revised with Akers entering the picture.

D'Andre Swift, Chicago Bears

How would Swift fare in the post-Shane Waldron era? That question was at least partially answered in Week 11. After three straight weeks of five or fewer touches, Roschon Johnson got 11 touches vs. the Packers. Swift's RB opportunity share dropped from 85% in Week 10 to just 59% in Week 11. He also saw both his route participation and red-zone opportunities decrease week-over-week.

This was a competitive game throughout, so it's not as if Johnson was playing in garbage time. His role increased with Thomas Brown calling the plays, to the detriment of Swift and his touches.

Given how well Johnson ran in Week 11, it's not likely the Bears revert to an 85% RB opportunity share for Swift going forward. If anything, it's more possible they use a hot-hand approach and wind up giving Johnson even more work.

Deebo Samuel Sr., San Francisco 49ers

Samuel has had two very favorable matchups in the last two weeks, but not much to show for it. In Week 11, he recorded single-digit fantasy points for the second time this season. And that game was played without George Kittle, who seems poised to return in Week 12.

Overall, Samuel just hasn't looked good this season, and it was magnified last week vs. the Seahawks:

Jauan Jennings has averaged 92 receiving yards on 11 targets per game in the last two games, while Samuel has averaged just 42 receiving yards on 6.5 targets per game in those same games. And with Christian McCaffrey back in the mix for the last two games, Samuel has just four total rush attempts.

It's hard to sit a guy who can break one for a long touchdown at any time, but Samuel has underwhelmed in a big way this season compared to expectations.

Mark Andrews, Baltimore Ravens

Andrews commanded a season-high seven targets on a season-high 87% snap share and season-high 85% route participation rate in Week 10 without Isaiah Likely. Likely returned in Week 11, and Andrews came back down to earth, seeing just three targets on a 61% snap share and 58% route participation rate.

Andrews hasn't seen more than five targets in a game played with Likely this season. His ceiling is severely depressed as long as he's splitting time with the second-year tight end. Up next are two tough matchups against the Chargers and Eagles before the Ravens' bye in Week 14. After the bye, it's three more tough matchups against the Giants, Steelers, and Texans.

Maybe you're not dropping him outright, but temper expectations on the veteran tight end.

Other Fallers: Audric Estime, Adonai Mitchell, Nick Chubb, Ricky Pearsall



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