X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

How To Properly Look At Quarterbacks - NFL NextGen Stats

Antonio Losada provides key fantasy football analysis for quarterbacks and Next Gen data, to help fantasy owners make the best lineup and waiver wire decisions.

Okay, folks, I'm about to bring you bad news. If you're reading this it is because you're trying to get an edge over your league mates to beat them this weekend. That means you're here to get informed on what to do and how to tackle your week's most pressing decisions. The bad news: these will be your final guesses of the first half of the season. It's time to panic because in just mere days we'll be counting down the days to season's end instead of looking forward to another week of football. But hey, today is not the time to get depressed. Why? Because in this article we have new insights from everyone's favorite source, NFL advanced stats! More than anything the reason to be cheerful is that I'm back to discuss the most important position in all of the sports! If that isn't great, I don't know what is...

To gain the biggest edge in your fantasy football league, it's necessary to understand how to apply the advanced statistics being used in every sport nowadays. Back in the day, it was all about wins and losses, passing yards, and touchdowns scored. It is not that those stats are worthless, but they don't offer enough to the savvy analysts. While football is yet in its infancy in terms of analytics compared to baseball, the evolution the sport has seen lately in those terms is notable.

Each week, I'll be tackling NFL's Next Gen Stats, bringing you data from the just-completed week's games with notable takeaways you should consider when assessing fantasy players for the upcoming week. In case you're new to the series, or Next Gen Stats altogether, I recommend you read our preseason primer. Now, let's get to the data!

Be sure to check all of our fantasy football rankings for 2025:

 

So, What Is The Matter With Quarterbacks?

First of all, I have to thank those of you that have read this series from the first column to the last one. And most of all I have to thank those who read last week's entry about running back advanced metrics and came to me with tons of positive feedback. Why is that? Well, for one, I appreciate you taking a few minutes to read this super long thing. And strictly in relation to this week's column, the fact that you liked and found last week's one interesting made me think about re-adapting it this week to quarterback-related metrics. So here we are, and I hope you enjoy this one too!

During the last two columns in which I discussed quarterbacks, I already covered most of NGS metrics. If you remember, we went through "true" Completion% (COMP%) and "expected" Completion% (xCOMP%) rates to explore the difference between them and who was over- or under-performing what the numbers said. After that, I decided to go a step further and tackle a little more advanced (or at least, less fantasy-related) metrics such as Time to Throw (TT), Aggression (AGG%), Completed/Intended Air Yards (CAY/IAY) and Air Yards Differential (AYD).

We can take interesting information from each and every metric available to us, but as we saw with running backs just a few days ago, not every metric should be weighted the same when assessing players in our fantasy leagues. That is why today I'm going to go straight to the point and provide the most meaningful information about the metrics available at NFL's Next Gen Stats QB leaderboard. That way, you will be able to know which of them correlate more with quarterback success and fantasy points.

Through seven weeks of games, almost every team has a solid situation at quarterback. There are cases that don't follow the rule, but those are the least. In fact, as I'll be using NGS stats and thresholds (min. 53 pass attempts), some of the least-used QBs to this point won't make it to this column (notably Ryan Tannehill, Devlin Hodges, Drew Brees, and Matt Moore) so we won't have to care about those.

Firstly, I ran a few simple correlation calculations to see how metrics and fantasy points relate and how strong those relationships are. The resulting numbers range from negative-1 to positive-1. Zero means no correlation. A negative value means an inverse relationship (when one metric goes up, the other goes down), and a positive value means a direct relationship (when one metric goes up, the other goes up too). Here are the metrics offered by the NFL to measure quarterback performance, and how they relate to Fantasy Points:

 

 

 

 

 

 

As a quick intro to correlation: experts more or less agree on correlations being significant only if the value surpasses the +/-0.7 threshold. As you can see, only three quarterback metrics do that here and they are the most obvious and most related ones to fantasy points: attempts, yards, and those two combined in Yards per Attempt. It was to be expected. However, that doesn't mean the rest of the stats aren't important (in fact, anything around +/-0.5 shows a good enough relation as to be taken seriously). They are important, only to a lesser degree, and should be taking into consideration when looking at QB data. Sports are not an exact science, so it is impossible to have stats perfectly align week to week. It makes it harder for us fantasy owners to play the game, but it also makes it fun!

Instead of giving a quick takeaway of each metric, I'll do it at the same time as I provide you with the leaders and trailers of each category so you can take both the main takeaway from each stat and also see some real-life examples to make sense of it. I'll include the fantasy points of each player showcased to provide a better context for comparison.

 

"TT" Translated to Fantasy Football

Leaders and trailers:

Impact on fantasy football points (38%): Although not overly strong, the relation between the time a QB takes to throw and the points he gets is sufficiently high to take at least a little bit into consideration. Don't take this metric as the holy grail to win you the league, but when in doubt between who to pick to be your quarterback, looking at these numbers can be a deal-breaker in some cases.

Important takeaways:

  • The most straight forward thought that comes from this stat is related to how fantasy football works, which comes down to points based mostly on yards and touchdowns. More time to throw means more time to let routes develop and bigger yardage gains for fantasy quarterbacks. And that is where the money is.
  • A quick glance at the list above this text makes the prior point clear. Only two players are averaging fewer than 2.6 TT and still getting 19-plus points per game, while also only two are averaging more than or 2.87 TT and getting less than 20 points per game.
  • There is no stat for this but as you can see in the small list above, pocket passers sit at the top while scramblers and risk-takers are at the bottom. Tom Brady, Joe Flacco, and Jimmy Garoppolo are not going to buy time by moving around: they'll settle for what they're given and go with it. The opposite happens with the bottom half. Baker Mayfield, Russell Wilson, and Aaron Rodgers won't have a problem extending plays as much as possible dodging rushers until they find what they want.
  • Don't over-rely on TT, but use it as an interesting data point when deciding between two quarterbacks (for example, if you're streaming the position). Look for the ones who are able to extend the play, either because of their own abilities or because they play behind great offensive lines.

 

"CAY/IAY & AYD" Translated to Fantasy Football

Leaders and trailers:

Impact on fantasy football points (CAY 61% / IAY 38% / AYD 30%):

  • CAY: Although the Completed Air Yards a quarterback throws per game doesn't quite reach the 70% threshold introduced earlier as to consider it truly meaningful, it's really close it and therefore CAY explains an important part of fantasy production. It makes sense. The more yards a passer completes, the more points he'll get. As simple as that. The explanation for the lower relationship with fantasy points in comparison to the raw "Yards" metric is that Air Yards do not account for Yards After the Catch gained by the receivers.
  • IAY: The more yards a quarterback goes for, the more chances he gets big gains and more fantasy points. The relation is not great but does show some useful information. The problem with big throws is that they carry more risk to them, so IAY should only be used as a deciding factor when comparing two very similar quarterbacks in the rest of their stats.
  • AYD: The difference between the completed and intended Air Yards doesn't say much about how good or bad a quarterback is and shouldn't be considered in fantasy. Just think of it for a second. One quarterback can complete passes for 10 yards on average while averaging 20 yards downfield on attempts. Another one can complete the same amount, only at 5 yards while averaging an attempt distance of 15. The difference is the same (10 yards), but the first one will produce more than the second one. This makes the metric not very reliable.

Important takeaways:

  • Always keep in mind that CAY will be lower than Y/C no matter what. The former only looks at production by the quarterback's own passing abilities, while the latter factor the receivers running after the catch in (as the quarterback's total yards account for both Air Yards and Yards After the Catch).
  • Related to the last point, when studying quarterbacks it is interesting to look at the difference between what the QB is generating himself and how his receivers are helping them instead of just focusing on CAY in isolation. An average quarterback with a great group of receivers will be helped rack up points even if he throws for fewer yards than a great QB.
  • Although they have a weaker relation with fantasy points, IAY tells us more about quarterback styles of play. Those with the largest IAY tend to be better fantasy bets as they are either good QBs or bring a boom-or-bust profile that will compensate over time.
  • A quarterback with a very low IAY is always going to be relying on the work of his receivers and has his upside cut in fantasy (in fact, only three of the players averaging fewer than eight air yards per throw are currently scoring 20-plus fantasy points per game).
  • On the other hand, nine of ten players with at least 9.0 IAY are posting 20-plus fantasy points per game through Week 7.

 

"AGG%" Translated to Fantasy Football

Leaders and trailers:

Impact on fantasy football points (negative-27%): Aggressiveness (defined as the rate of passing attempts thrown into tight coverage) has a much stronger relation with COMP% (negative-48%) than with fantasy production. For us fantasy owners this metric can almost be disregarded.

Important takeaways:

  • Excluding those at the very bottom of the AGG% leaderboard (Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Matt Ryan, Patrick Mahomes), there is really not a strong relationship to consider tight throws impact in what a quarterback produces in fantasy football. As you see on the top half, things get much messier with point averages spreading all over the place.
  • In fact, if we remove the bottom-six players from the table above and re-calculate the correlation, it drops down to a ridiculous negative-15%, totally insignificant.
  • As a rule of thumb, lean toward less aggressive passes on your average decisions. But don't make this metric the end-all-be-all of your choices, not even a very small amount.

 

"ATT/YDS & Y/A" Translated to Fantasy Football

Leaders and trailers:

Impact on fantasy football points (ATT 74% / YDS 82% / Y/A 76%):

  • ATT: As with running backs and receivers, volume is key for fantasy success. The more passes a quarterback attempts, the more chances he'll get at racking up bigger numbers. I don't want my real-life QB to throw the ball no matter what in nonsensical ways, but in fantasy? Give me all the throws he can take.
  • YDS: And obviously, Yards take where we left it with Attempts and add to it. They are the most comprehensible stat for everyone and the one (other than touchdowns, left out of this study for obvious reasons) that best relates to fantasy production. Considering this metric includes both Air Yards and Yards After the Catch, it is reasonable that it relates better to fantasy points than Air Yards alone.
  • Y/A: Not a lot more to add here. You need to look for quarterbacks than go for big gains on average by themselves and that have reliable receiving corps they can throw the ball to.

Important takeaways:

  • I'm going to cheat and almost copy what I wrote about running back attempts here: volume is key. If your quarterback is not throwing the ball, he will not have enough chances to rack up points and you'd be betting on a few huge plays for him to compensate and give you a good performance. Either you have someone like Lamar Jackson (who can run for points and add value that way), or you won't do much with a low-volume quarterback.
  • As you can see, Kirk Cousins is the poster boy of efficient play and good surrounding weapons. He isn't throwing a lot of passes but he's still putting up an average of 20 points per game while having the highest Y/A. Daniel Jones, on the other hand...

 

"COMP%/xCOMP% & +/-" Translated to Fantasy Football

Leaders and trailers:

Impact on fantasy football points (COMP 45% / xCOMP negative-16% / +/- 57%):

  • COMP%: Completion rates are pretty close to the 50% threshold introduced earlier, but they fall short for obvious reasons (although they are a good enough indicator of QB-fantasy talent). The strong side of the relationship comes from the fact that on average, good quarterbacks are both going to complete passes on a higher ratio and to put up big points. The weak side, though, reminds us that even a boom-or-bust, gunslinging thrower, can make up for a lot of incompletions with just a bunch of huge completions.
  • xCOMP%: Expected Completion rates work on what should have happened, instead of what has happened. That is why they have virtually no relation to fantasy outcomes. xCOMP% works in an alternate universe while fantasy points work in this one. Look at this metric when analyzing quarterbacks as a whole, but don't use it as-is for your fantasy decisions.
  • +/-: As plus/minus gets back to the "real world", it relates much better with fantasy points. In fact, it is the one that holds the strongest relationship. Quarterbacks over-performing (given the expectations) are doing so in real life and therefore are getting better fantasy numbers. The bigger the overperformance, the greatest the chances someone is having quite a fantasy year.

Important takeaways:

  • The table above, and the metrics it includes, is very straightforward. The quarterbacks with high completion ratios are the best in the league (Matt Ryan, Dak Prescott, Deshaun Watson, Russell Wilson). However, there are those who are keeping their fantasy production high taking safe options most of the time and limiting their mistakes (Derek Carr, Kirk Cousins, Jimmy Garoppolo).
  • That second statement becomes even clearer if looking at the xCOMP% leaderboard. As that metrics work on what happened in similar past situations, "safe" plays are favored and awarded bigger completions rates than riskier ones that ultimately turned out good for players in real life. That is why the xCOMP% leaders include names such as Derek Carr, Teddy Bridgewater, and Mitchell Trubisky.
  • At the end of the day, the plus/minus metric is what matters most between these three. It tells us who is performing better than has historically been done, and it shows. Dak Prescott, Russell Wilson, and Kirk Cousins are all playing (yes, in very different ways) above their expectations. Josh Rosen, Baker Mayfield, and Jared Goff, though, are disappointing both fans and fantasy owners each weekend. There is no arguing with that.

That's it for today. Until we meet again next week, don't get too mad at the bye weeks leaving four teams out of the schedule, try to find the best free agents on your leagues' player pools, field the most productive teams you can, and win the weekend with all of your squads!

More Fantasy Football Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Jake McCabe14 mins ago

Available For Sunday's Game 1
Oliver Bjorkstrand21 mins ago

Will Not Play In Round 1
Matthew Tkachuk29 mins ago

Logs Full Practice Saturday
Jonathan Drouin38 mins ago

Available For Game 1
Miro Heiskanen45 mins ago

Upgraded To Day-To-Day
Gabriel Vilardi55 mins ago

Out On Saturday
Jaylen Brown1 hour ago

Not Expected To Be Limited On Sunday
Christian Vázquez3 hours ago

Christian Vazquez Moves Past Hand Injury
Willi Castro3 hours ago

Remains Sidelined With Oblique Injury
Austin Wells4 hours ago

Back In Action On Saturday
Gabriel Arias4 hours ago

Lane Thomas Sitting On Saturday
Josh Smith4 hours ago

Back In Action On Saturday
Martín Pérez4 hours ago

Martin Perez Hits 15-Day Injured List
Jordan Beck4 hours ago

Recalled From Triple-A
Ezequiel Tovar4 hours ago

Placed On 10-Day Injured List
Vaughn Grissom5 hours ago

Swinging A Hot Bat At Triple-A
Pedro Pagés5 hours ago

Jordan Walker, Pedro Pages Sitting On Saturday
A.J. Puk5 hours ago

Hits 15-Day Injured List
Brandon Marsh5 hours ago

Remains Sidelined On Saturday
Ryan Mountcastle5 hours ago

Not In Saturday's Lineup
Chandler Simpson5 hours ago

Batting Leadoff In MLB Debut
John Brebbia6 hours ago

Placed On 15-Day Injured List
Julio Rodríguez6 hours ago

Julio Rodriguez Sitting On Saturday
Irv Smith6 hours ago

Houston Re-Signs Irv Smith Jr.
George Soriano6 hours ago

Patrick Monteverde Promoted To Major Leagues, George Soriano Optioned
MJ Melendez6 hours ago

Optioned To Triple-A
Mark Canha6 hours ago

Activated Off Injured List
Jake Cronenworth10 hours ago

Targeting Earlier Return
Liam Hendriks10 hours ago

Set To Return On Saturday
Ja Morant21 hours ago

Cleared To Play Friday
Brandon Williams21 hours ago

Available Against Grizzlies
Anthony Davis21 hours ago

Will Play Friday Night
Gary Trent Jr.22 hours ago

Available For Game 1 Against Pacers
Taurean Prince22 hours ago

Returns To Bucks Lineup Saturday
NFL22 hours ago

Justin Hardee Sr. Waived With Non-Football Injury
Isaiah Stewart22 hours ago

To Return For Game 1
Ausar Thompson22 hours ago

Available For Game 1
Rui Hachimura22 hours ago

On Track To Play Saturday
Austin Reaves22 hours ago

Ready To Go For Game 1
NFL22 hours ago

Bills Release Armani Rogers, Branson Deen
Luka Dončić22 hours ago

Luka Doncic Removed From Injury Report
LeBron James22 hours ago

Listed As Probable For Game 1
Ben Sheppard22 hours ago

Probable For Saturday's Game 1
NFL22 hours ago

Kolton Miller Absent From Raiders' Voluntary Offseason Program
Kevin Durant22 hours ago

To Houston Already Losing Steam
Lauri Markkanen23 hours ago

Wants To Stay With The Jazz
NFL23 hours ago

Ross Blacklock Let Go By New York
Bennedict Mathurin23 hours ago

Expected To Play In Game 1 Saturday
Pascal Siakam23 hours ago

Available For Playoff Opener
Tyrese Haliburton23 hours ago

Returning From Two-Game Absence Saturday
Cade Cunningham23 hours ago

Available For Game 1 Against Knicks
Josh Hart23 hours ago

Back In Knicks Lineup Saturday
OG Anunoby24 hours ago

Good To Go For Game 1
NFL1 day ago

Raiders Considering Drafting A Quarterback
Irv Smith1 day ago

Sticking With Texans
Ryan Lindgren1 day ago

Set To Return Saturday
NFL1 day ago

Texans Expected To Draft Wide Receivers
Greg Dortch1 day ago

Returning To Cardinals
Josh Manson1 day ago

Available For Game 1
Mark Andrews1 day ago

Could Be Traded Soon
Ondrej Palat1 day ago

To Return For Start Of Playoffs
David Savard1 day ago

Will Retire After Playoffs
NFL1 day ago

Raiders, Falcons Could Have Interest In Jalen Ramsey
Robert Thomas1 day ago

Good To Go Saturday
Matthew Tkachuk1 day ago

Expected To Return For Game 1
1 day ago

Raiders Are High On Ashton Jeanty
Jason Robertson1 day ago

Considered Week-To-Week
Rome Odunze1 day ago

To Hopefully Get More Involved
NFL1 day ago

Dolphins Could Draft A Quarterback
James Cook1 day ago

Could Stay Away From Voluntary Workouts
Leon Draisaitl1 day ago

Wins First Rocket Richard Trophy
Nikita Kucherov1 day ago

Bags Third Art Ross Trophy
Bryan Rust1 day ago

Scores Twice In Season-Ending Win
Igor Shesterkin1 day ago

Shuts Out Lightning With 27 Saves
Dylan Cozens1 day ago

Picks Up Three Points In Regular-Season Finale
Matvei Michkov1 day ago

Caps Off Rookie Campaign With Three-Point Effort
Brady Tkachuk1 day ago

Makes Early Exit For Precautionary Reasons
Jake Tonges2 days ago

Signs Exclusive-Rights Tender
Denver Broncos2 days ago

Broncos To Focus On RB Position In Next Week's Draft
Drew Lock2 days ago

Sam Howell, Drew Lock Expected To Compete For Backup Job
New York Giants2 days ago

Giants Leaning Toward Taking Best Player Available At No. 3
New Orleans Saints2 days ago

Ryan Ramczyk Announces His Retirement
Buffalo Bills2 days ago

Tre'Davious White Reunites With Buffalo
Jakob Chychrun2 days ago

Returns Against Penguins
Lucas Glover3 days ago

Looks To Rebound After Poor Performance
Daniel Berger3 days ago

Looking To Continue Solid Play At RBC
Sepp Straka3 days ago

Looking To Bounce Back At RBC
Justin Thomas3 days ago

Looking To Shake Off Poor Masters At RBC Heritage
Xander Schauffele3 days ago

Still Looking For Year's First Win At RBC Heritage
Maverick McNealy3 days ago

Is An Intriguing Play At RBC Heritage
Shane Lowry3 days ago

Looks To Shake Off Poor Masters Sunday At RBC Heritage
Will Zalatoris3 days ago

Eyes A Bounce-Back At RBC Heritage
Gary Woodland3 days ago

Could Add Some Surprise At Hilton Head
Sam Burns3 days ago

Hoping For Better Times At RBC Heritage
Sahith Theegala3 days ago

Still Trying To Put It All Together
Aaron Rai3 days ago

Might Be That Guy For Hilton Head
Robert MacIntyre3 days ago

All Or Nothing At RBC Heritage
Tom Hoge3 days ago

Still Playing Solid Heading To Hilton Head
Nick Dunlap3 days ago

Continues To Have Rough Stretch
Keegan Bradley3 days ago

Looks To Move On From Masters Performance
Matt Fitzpatrick4 days ago

A Boom-Or-Bust Option At RBC Heritage
Patrick Cantlay4 days ago

A Strong Play At RBC Heritage
Jordan Spieth4 days ago

Targets Another Strong RBC Heritage Showing
Collin Morikawa4 days ago

Eyeing Victory At RBC Heritage
Max Homa4 days ago

Breaks Through At The Masters
Alexander Volkanovski4 days ago

Reclaims Featherweight Title
Diego Lopes4 days ago

Drops Decision At UFC 314
Paddy Pimblett4 days ago

Remains Undefeated In The UFC
Michael Chandler4 days ago

Suffers TKO Loss
MMA4 days ago

Patricio Freire Gets Dominated In His UFC Debut
Yair Rodriguez4 days ago

Gets Back In The Win Column
Bryce Mitchell4 days ago

Gets Submitted At UFC 314
Jean Silva4 days ago

Gets Submission Win At UFC 314
Dominick Reyes4 days ago

Wins Third Fight In A Row
5 days ago

Austin Dillon Nabs His First Top-10 Finish Of The 2025 Season At Bristol
5 days ago

Ryan Blaney's Bold Strategies Fall Flat, Still Musters A Top-Five Finish At Bristol
5 days ago

Christopher Bell Finishes In The Top 10 After Falling Back Midway At Bristol
5 days ago

Ty Gibbs Earns His First Top-Five Finish Of The 2025 Season At Bristol
5 days ago

Chase Briscoe Quietly Scores First Career Top-Five Finish At Bristol
6 days ago

Denny Hamlin Cuts Into William Byron's Points Lead
6 days ago

William Byron Makes Best Of His Mediocre Qualifying Run With Sixth-Place Finish
6 days ago

Despite Engine Failure, Alex Bowman's Improved Speed Looks Promising
NASCAR6 days ago

A.J. Allmendinger Enters Playoff Picture With Surprise Bristol Top-10 Finish
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF