Seattle Seahawks Fantasy Football Team Preview - QB, RB, WR, TE Outlooks

Welcome to my 2024 fantasy football preview for the Seattle Seahawks as part of my team-by-team fantasy football outlooks series. This new 32-part series will dissect each NFL team through a fantasy football lens. We'll look at each of the four primary positions—quarterback, running back, wide receiver, and tight end—and identify each player's value at their current ADP. Through this series, we'll also recognize players fantasy managers should avoid and target at their current ADP.

This series will start with the NFC and AFC West divisions, then move down to the South and East divisions, and finally wrap up with the North division. It will also discuss how coaching and personnel changes could impact different fantasy outcomes for the 2024 NFL season. Our first entry will be with the Seattle Seahawks.

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• Quarterback fantasy football rankings
• Running back fantasy football rankings
• Wide receiver fantasy football rankings
• Tight end fantasy football rankings
• Kicker fantasy football rankings
• FLEX fantasy football rankings
• Defense (D/ST) fantasy football rankings
• Superflex fantasy football rankings
• IDP fantasy football rankings
• Dynasty fantasy football rankings

Fantasy Football Team Previews

Fantasy Football Quarterback Outlook

Geno Smith: QB24, ADP 146

Not surprisingly, Smith fell back to Earth after an incredible 2022 season, which saw him finish as the QB8 with an 18.7 PPG average. Smith finished as the QB22 this past season, and his PPG average fell to 15.4. That's not ideal, but let's dive deeper into this. Tackle Charles Cross missed three games last year, guard Phil Haynes missed nine, and tackle tackle Abraham Lucas missed 11. That lack of continuity up front caused many more issues, and Smith was under more pressure this past season than in 2022. A healthier season from his front five blockers should help Smith's consistency and performance in 2024.

"Geno Smith was not the problem in this offense last year." @minakimes shared a shocking stat on Geno Smith 👀 pic.twitter.com/iJoXjYKIzJ

— NFL on ESPN (@ESPNNFL) May 24, 2024

From a per-game standpoint, Smith averaged just two fewer completions and 10 fewer passing yards on essentially the same number of pass attempts per game. Smith scored far fewer points for two reasons - his touchdown rate fell from 5.2% to 4.0%, and his rushing yards fell by 211. However, despite that dip in scoring, Smith's final 2023 ranking is still above his current 2024 ADP.

Seattle did lose their offensive coordinator, Shane Waldron, which could be what is factoring in Smith's cheap cost. The organization replaced him with Ryan Grubb, former offensive coordinator for the Washington Huskies. Based on the offenses he ran at Washington, Seattle might implement a more pass-heavy offense than the one they ran last year when they finished 17th. What Grubb also did at Washington was attack defenses vertically and down-field with regularity. A bigger emphasis on the downfield passing attack would also be a change from last year. Smith finished 26th out of 32 qualifying quarterbacks in intended air yards per pass attempt with a 7.0-yard average.

With a potentially more pass-heavy and down-field attacking system, a healthy offensive line, and all three of his receivers returning, Smith's current ADP is very appealing. Quarterback is a very deep position, and it's hard to imagine Smith finishing any higher than QB16 given the strength at the position, but he's a solid bet to outplay his current positional ranking.

Verdict: Buy Geno Smith

Fantasy Football Running Back Outlook

Kenneth Walker: RB15, ADP 53
Zach Charbonnet: RB42, ADP 142

Walker finished as the RB18 in 2023 and tied as the RB15 in 2022, averaging 12.6 half-PPR PPG in both seasons. There's no denying rookie Zach Charbonnet's impact on Walker's second season. Following Rashaad Penny's injury in 2022, Walker averaged 18.6 carries, 2.5 targets, and 1.9 receptions per game from Weeks 6-18. That put him on a 17-game pace of 349 total touches and 1,630 scrimmage yards. This past season, Walker's averages dropped to 14.6 carries, 2.4 targets, and 1.9 receptions per game, putting him on a 17-game pace of 281 touches and 1,320 scrimmage yards. Still very good, but you can see Charbonnet's impact as just a rookie.

Despite Charbonnet, Walker still finished as a top-15 running back in seven out of 14 fantasy-relevant weeks (excluding Week 18). In the remaining seven weeks, Walker had weekly finishes ranging from RB18 to RB55, with three weeks where he finished as an RB40 or worse. He found the end zone in all seven of Walker's top-15 weekly finishes, making him a touchdown-dependent running back. That's because he's marginally involved in the passing game. He has 56 catches in his first two NFL seasons, which could decrease in year three.

As a rookie, Walker had a 41.5% route participation rate, including the first five weeks of the season where Penny was the primary starter. From Weeks 1-5, Walker ran just 34 routes, just under seven per game. From Weeks 6-19 (eliminating Week 13 because he left in the first quarter due to injury), Walker averaged 18 routes per game. Last year, his route participation rate dropped to 35.6%. From Weeks 7-18, he didn't run more than 15 routes in a single game. That trend could worsen with Charbonnet entering his second season in the NFL.

Even more concerning, in the first six games of last season, Walker averaged 18.1 carries per game. From Weeks 8-18 (excluding Week 11 because he left early due to injury), that dropped to just 13.2 carries per game. It seems likely that Walker's role in both the passing and running game will decrease in 2024, with Charbonnet taking on a slightly larger role than he had in his rookie season.

Fantasy managers should be expecting more of a split this season. While Walker is sure to continue being the primary ball carrier, it wouldn't be surprising to see Charbonnet get a little extra work in that department. The bigger news could be Charbonnet becoming the full-time pass-catching back. If Charbonnet handles all the third-down, two-minute drill, and passing situations, which was how things were trending late last season, he could be a nice value at RB42. Especially since he provides top-12 handcuff potential if Walker were to get hurt.

Verdict: Sell Kenneth Walker, Buy Zach Charbonnet

Fantasy Football Wide Receiver Outlook

D.K. Metcalf: WR22, ADP 38
Jaxon Smith-Njigba: WR45, ADP 98
Tyler Lockett: WR52, ADP 120

Last season, Metcalf finished as the WR16 with a 12.7 half-PPR PPG average. Lockett was WR41 and averaged 9.2 half-PPR PPG, and JSN was WR53 at 7.2 half-PPR PPG. Lockett led the team with 122 targets, Metcalf had 119, and Smith-Njigba had 93. Based on their current ADPs, fantasy managers expect Lockett to take another step back, opening the door for JSN to assume the mantle of WR2 in the Seattle offense.

“I can tell you this: We want to get DK the ball a lot, too.”

Great insight from #Seahawks coach Mike Macdonald on The Insiders about how the new staff plans to make DK Metcalf a “moving target” for defenses, and a lot more.

📺📱💻 Full episode at https://t.co/RV7mRM4pQk pic.twitter.com/8JDgIApEhm

— Tom Pelissero (@TomPelissero) June 14, 2024

Lockett averaged his lowest yard-per-game average since 2017. His yard-per-reception average of 11.3 was his worst mark since 2020 and the second-lowest of his career. He averaged just 7.3 yards per target in 2023. From his rookie season to 2022, he had a career average of 9.6. Lockett's 2023 yard-per-target average was the worst of his career. From 2018-2023, he had four seasons with a yard-per-route-run average north of 2.00 and a fifth season at 1.74. His 2023 yard-per-route-run average was just 1.63. Lockett's 2023 half-PPR PPG average was also his lowest since 2017.

There are some obvious red flags with JSN's rookie season, most notably his 6.1 average depth of target and 6.8 yards-per-target average. These metrics are dreadful, but there's a small silver lining. In the first five weeks of the season, JSN never played more than 60% of the snaps, a mark he would meet in the final remaining 12 contests. In Weeks 1-5, JSN averaged 15.5 yards per game and had a yard-per-target average of just 5.1. In the final 12 games of the season, he increased those marks to 43.5 and 7.7, respectively.

Putting faith in slot/wide splits is always a little scary to me, but there is a somewhat interesting JSN case I’ve been largely ignoring so far this summer.

Honestly a pretty good discount if you had conviction in his excellent college profile. https://t.co/ysUt0zaJp8

— Ryan Heath (@RyanJ_Heath) June 14, 2024

Fantasy managers have been waiting for Metcalf to become the No. 1 receiver in Seattle for the past several years, but Lockett had refused to pass the baton. Metcalf has one top-12 season, all the way back in 2020, but has otherwise settled in as a mid-WR2. At this stage of his career, it'd be unwise to expect something differently, even with Lockett's decline. Over the past two seasons with Smith under center, Metcalf has averaged 78 receptions, 1,081 yards, and seven touchdowns. He has finished as the WR16 (2023, 12.7 half-PPR PPG) and the WR23 (2022, 11.0). As mentioned under Smith, the new offensive coordinator could bring forth a slightly more pass-heavy and downfield passing attack, favoring Metcalf's play style.

New Seahawks OC Ryan Grubb really slung it with the Huskies. This is pass rate and deep pass rate. pic.twitter.com/hpVfbcdicN

— Hayden Winks (@HaydenWinks) February 13, 2024

Lockett's decline and JSN's somewhat questionable rookie season could result in Metcalf garnering more targets than he has in the past. For the first time, in maybe his entire career with Seattle, he'll be the undisputed No. 1 receiver. That started to happen last season regarding efficiency, but we still saw Lockett out-target Metcalf, which should no longer be expected. Metcalf could be in store for one of his best seasons, yet with the decreased talent around him and an offensive system focused on attacking vertically.

Verdict: Buy DK Metcalf, Fair Price Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Sell Tyler Lockett

Fantasy Football Tight End Outlook

Noah Fant: TE29, ADP 202

Fant has never recorded more than 65 targets in two seasons with Seattle. He's never had more than 50 targets, 500 yards, or four touchdowns. His seasonal average amounts to 53 targets, 41 receptions, 450 yards, and two touchdowns. He finished below TE30 last year with a 3.8 half-PPR PPG average and the TE22 in 2022 with a 5.9 half-PPR PPG average. Fant has the potential to be more than what he's been in Seattle. In his first three seasons in Denver, Fant averaged 83 targets, 57 receptions, 635 yards, and three touchdowns. Excluding his rookie season, Fant averaged 92 targets, 65 receptions, 672 yards, and four touchdowns per year in Denver. In 2020 and 2021, Fant finished as a high-end TE2 and averaged around 8.0 half-PPR PPG in both seasons.

If there's a silver lining for Fant, in 2020, his snap share was just 60.7%, and his route participation was 57.6%. This past year, those marks were 54.3% and 56.3% respectively. He had split time at tight end with Will Dissly and Colby Parkinson in both seasons. Both players are gone, and at least on the surface, it appears that Fant will be the undisputed full-time starter in Seattle. Because of this fact, Lockett's 2023 decline, JSN's lackluster rookie season, and the fact that Fant is essentially free, he's not the worst dart throw.

Verdict: Buy Noah Fant, but don't expect much

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