RADIO
Welcome to my 2024 fantasy football preview for the Arizona Cardinals as part of my team-by-team fantasy football outlooks series. We have moved on to our third team in the NFC West, the Arizona Cardinals. This up-and-coming team is likely being slept on more than it should be. The return of Kyler Murray and the draft acquisition of Marvin Harrison Jr. will fundamentally change this offense for the better. This is one of the most intriguing offenses in the NFL for fantasy football.
The Cardinals seem to have a big-three at the skilled positions—James Conner, Marvin Harrison Jr., and Trey McBride. Their offense is going to run through these three in such a massive way that it's hard to imagine any of them failing to provide quality seasons for fantasy managers. That's especially true for Conner, who is barely being drafted as an RB2. Then there's Murray. All Murray does is finish in the top 10. This offense could very well be a fantasy gold mine.
There are so many places fantasy managers can find ADP rankings, all of which differ to some extent. I used the ADP from FantasyPros, which can be found here. If you want to invest in your fantasy football leagues, consider subscribing to our Premium account. Our Premium tools can help you dominate your fantasy leagues. If you'd like to purchase our Premium tools at RotoBaller, use promo code "BOOM" at checkout for a 10% discount.
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Fantasy Football Quarterback Outlook
Kyler Murray: QB10, ADP 68
Murray's current ADP is outrageous and provides a tremendous buying opportunity for fantasy managers. Since his second season in the NFL, all Murray has done is finish as a top-10 quarterback in fantasy points per game. As a rookie in 2019, Murray finished as QB12 with an 18.8 PPG average. That year, his leading receiver was 36-year-old Larry Fitzgerlad, who finished with just over 800 yards. Arizona acquired DeAndre Hopkins the following year, and Murray exploded on the fantasy scene. He averaged 25.8 PPG that year, first among quarterbacks who played at least six games. That was the last year that Murray played with a 1,000-yard receiver. However, that hasn't stopped him from being an excellent fantasy asset.
Reminder 🚨
A healthy Kyler Murray is a top 5 fantasy football QB 📈
His 2019 and 2020 seasons he averaged:
♦️550 pass attempts
♦️3,846 passing yards
♦️681 rushing yards
♦️23 Passing TDs, 7 rushing TDs
♦️QB6 and QB3 👀2024 outlook:
🔹Another year removed from ACL injury,… pic.twitter.com/yoUkdDsyt4— Lobo (@LobosFFDen) May 17, 2024
He tied as the QB3 with a 22.6 PPG average in 2021 and was QB7 in 2022. He tore his ACL late that season, causing him to miss the fantasy football playoffs and the beginning of the 2023 season. Despite coming off a major injury, Murray came back in 2024 and continued to be a top-10 quarterback. He finished with a 19.1 PPG average, good for QB9. From 2022-2023, Arizona did not have a single pass-catcher finish with more than 825 yards. Since Murray came into the league, he has had one season with a 1,000-yard season and hasn't had a receiver with more than 800 yards in the past two years.
Since Murray's rookie season, Trey McBride, Arizona's leading receiver last season, had the fourth-most yards of any pass-catcher Murray has ever played with. Marvin Harrison Jr. is likely to become Murray's second-best pass-catcher he's ever played with this season. It's not a stretch to say that Harrison and McBride will be the best duo of pass-catchers Murray has ever played with. This season, he'll also be a full season removed from his torn ACL injury in 2022, and the entire team will enter its second season with offensive coordinator Drew Petzing. Despite that, he has an ADP worse than any of his PPG finishes since his rookie season. Make it make sense.
Verdict: Buy Kyler Murray
Fantasy Football Running Back Outlook
James Conner: RB24, ADP 80
Trey Benson: RB35, ADP 106
Fantasy managers appear to be pretty worried about Benson's draft selection because, based on Conner's role and his fantasy performances the past two years, it's hard to make sense of it. Conner was tied for 10th in touches per game last season with 18.1. He also finished as the RB15 with a 13.3 half-PPR PPG average. From Weeks 10-17, when Kyler Murray returned, Conner averaged 14.9 half-PPR PPG and was the RB11. In 2022, he averaged 17.6 touches per game, 14th in the NFL, which helped him finish as the RB10 with a 13.6 half-PPR PPG average.
Conner's first season in Arizona came in 2021, and that season, he was the RB9 with a 15.6 half-PPR PPG average. Conner has averaged 17.1 touches per game in his three seasons with Arizona. That equates to just over 291 touches over 17 games. Conner has averaged 14.1 half-PPR PPG in his three seasons with the Cardinals. He's been a top-12 fantasy running back since signing with the team in 20221 and one of the cheaper workhorse running backs available this season.
Last year was one of his best. In the 13 games he appeared in, Conner had a 71.3% opportunity share, ninth-highest among running backs. He was fifth among running backs in yards per carry (5.0), 16th in yards per touch (5.1), sixth in yards after contact per attempt (2.2), second in rush attempts per broken tackle (7.7), eighth in juke rate (24.7%), 10th in evaded tackles (58), 16th in yards created per touch (3.64), and seventh in breakaway run rate (6.3%). Among running backs with at least 100 touches, Conner finished seventh in positive expected half-PPR point differential with a +1.5 expected PPG average. He was one of the NFL's most efficient and productive running backs last season.
You're underrating how good James Conner was last year.
* RB7 in PPR points per game
* RB1 in PPR points per game from Week 13 on
* 4th in rushing yards per game
* 4th in @NextGenStats rush yards over expected per attempt
* 5th in @PFF rushing grade— Jared Smola (@SmolaDS) June 3, 2024
Since Conner has missed four games in the past two seasons, the Cardinals may want to reduce his workload to keep him healthy. That's likely true, but that doesn't mean he will get enough touches to take Conner from a top-12 running back to barely an RB2, which is what Conner's current ADP currently suggests. With Conner in the last year of his contract with Arizona, they could choose to lean on him for one more season, which should be the expectation. Conner's a good bet to outplay his ADP.
Benson is being drafted just behind Brian Robinson Jr. of the Washington Commanders. He finished as the RB20 last year in half-PPR PPG. He's being drafted ahead of fellow third-round rookie MarShawn Llyod. While many will be quick to say that Josh Jacobs, the starting running back ahead of Lloyd on the Packers' depth chart, is better than Conner, they certainly wouldn't be able to use 2023 as part of their argument. Conner was one of the most efficient running backs, while Jacobs was one of the worst.
They might also use Conner's injury history; however, Jacobs missed four games last season. One of the big differences between Lloyd and Benson is that the coaching staff in Green Bay has always used a running back-by-committee approach. Unfortunately, I envision a rookie season similar to Zach Charbonnet's rookie year with the Seahawks last season, where Kenneth Walker III was Seattle's clear lead back. Benson is an intriguing prospect and an elite fantasy football handcuff, but it's hard to imagine him holding much stand-alone value as long as Conner is healthy.
Benson is an intriguing player who would demand more attention if his ADP and cost weren't so high. While Benson has excellent handcuff potential in the event of a Conner injury, he'll likely struggle to maintain any week-to-week value. He's not likely to unseat Conner, based on the way the veteran played last season short of an injury, and in that sense, there are far cheaper handcuff running backs to target. Blake Corum, Zach Charbonnet, MarShawn Lloyd, and Tyler Allgeier are all going well after him. Other guys with more week-to-week value, like Ezekiel Elliott, Rico Dowdle, Jerome Ford, and Gus Edwards, are also going after Benson. Either way, if you're looking for a handcuff or an RB3, cheaper options are available.
Verdict: Buy James Conner and Sell Trey Benson
Fantasy Football Wide Receiver Outlook
Marvin Harrison Jr.: WR10, ADP 17
Michael Wilson: WR67, ADP 156
Zay Jones: WR86, ADP 230
Greg Dortch: WR95, ADP 249
Arizona made Harrison the first receiver off the board in this year's draft, taking him fourth overall. He is coming off two years at Ohio State, where he had 323 targets, 144 receptions, 2,474 yards, and 28 touchdowns. He is widely regarded as one of the best receiver prospects of the last 10 years, right up there with Ja'Marr Chase. He happens to be exactly what this offense is missing and what Murray has not had since DeAndre Hopkins in 2020. That season, Hopkins had 160 targets, 115 receptions, 1,407 yards, and six touchdowns. He finished as the WR6 with a 15.0 half-PPR PPG average.
Given Harrison's talent and the lack of quality players behind him, there's little reason to think Harrison won't command 140+ targets in his first season. Murray averaged 33.5 pass attempts last season in his eight starts. That was with little to no quality pass-catchers on the roster. Fantasy managers should expect that to creep up to 35 in 2024. For his career, Murray has averaged 34.5 pass attempts per game. Harrison's price point may seem high right now, but given his talent profile, quality quarterback, and a clear pathway to elite volume, there appears to be very little in his way from, at the least, matching his current ADP.
As you can see from the other pass-catchers on this list, fantasy managers are not expecting anyone to do anything of note. Wilson and Jones will likely eat into each other's snaps as the team's primary No. 2 receiver opposite Harrison. Dortch will likely fall in as the team's primary slot receiver, but he'll have to compete with Trey McBride for those short, over-the-middle targets. Ultimately, none of these three players will have any fantasy appeal. In best ball leagues, throwing a few darts at Wilson because of his deep ball and big play ability makes sense, but Jones and Dortch do not have the downfield utilization that will allow them to make a difference on limited volume.
Verdict: Buy Marvin Harrison Jr., Take a few dart throws on Michael Wilson, Sell Zay Jones and Greg Dortch
Fantasy Football Tight End Outlook
Trey McBride: TE3, ADP 43
Arizona messed around (again) with a tight end-by-committee approach at the beginning of the season with Zach Ertz and McBride, but once Ertz went to IR and eventually was cut, McBride exploded. From Weeks 8-17, he averaged 11.7 half-PPR PPG, finishing as the TE5. However, his expected PPG average was 12.2, TE3. A big reason for his jump in expected points is that he caught just two touchdowns on 79 targets. During that time, McBride ranked eighth in yards after the catch per reception (4.9), second in yards per route run (2.15), and eighth in yards per target (7.86) among tight ends with at least 40 targets during that time.
He had a 26.8% target share since Week 8, which ranked first among tight ends. He averaged 8.78 targets, 7.00 receptions, and 69.00 yards per game from Weeks 8-17. These per-game averages across nine games would extrapolate to 149 targets, 119 receptions, and 1,173 yards. While Harrison will almost certainly lower his target share and target per-game average, as you can see, there is plenty of room for that to decrease and for McBride to remain an elite asset in the position.
Second Year Tight Ends to post 10.0+ PPG with a 26%+ Target Rate
[ George Kittle ]
[ Jimmy Graham ]
[ Mark Andrews ]
[ Jordan Reed ]
[ TREY MCBRIDE ]ALL have posted a 17+ PPG Season except…
McBride who has TE1 OVERALL in his Range of Outcomes pic.twitter.com/DeacQ9HhiT
— DynastyIM (@dynasty_im) June 9, 2024
Sam LaPorta had Amon-Ra St. Brown. Tyreek Hill was also in Kansas City with Travis Kelce. T.J. Hockenson produced next to Justin Jefferson. Fantasy managers shouldn't be worried about Harrison. While it may decrease McBride's target-per-game average to some extent, it'll also increase the overall offense's efficiency and create more scoring opportunities. McBride and Harrison should command 50% of the target share in Arizona. McBride is Arizona's clear No. 2 target-earner, and that distinction almost always comes with a top-five fantasy finish. Given just how efficient he was and how much he flashed last season, the TE3 is fair.
Verdict: Fair Price Trey McBride
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