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Justin's fantasy football playoffs strength of schedule analysis for 2024. He reviews tough vs. easy QB, RB, WR, TE fantasy playoff matchups and schedules to target/avoid.
The fantasy football postseason is here, and over the next two weeks, fantasy championships will be won and lost based on the decisions you make about your lineup.
This is the time of year when you need to look at what's right in front of you (Week 16) and at what's to come (Week 17). You have to win right now but also plan out how you'll win a week later as well. That's why it can be useful to look at the next two weeks in unison.
Let's analyze some players at all positions with some particularly soft and difficult fantasy schedules over the next two weeks. One note: the number in parentheses on matchups is where that team ranks in fantasy points allowed per position according to FantasyPros.
Be sure to check all of our fantasy football rankings for 2025:- 2025 fantasy football rankings (redraft)
- Dynasty fantasy football rankings
- 2025 NFL rookie fantasy football rankings
- Best ball fantasy football rankings
- Quarterback fantasy football rankings
- Running back fantasy football rankings
- Wide receiver fantasy football rankings
- Tight end fantasy football rankings
Softer Fantasy Playoff Schedules - Quarterbacks
Baker Mayfield - Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Week 16: at Dallas (4th)
- Week 17: vs. Carolina (6th)
I really think Baker Mayfield can be a league winner over these next two weeks. The overall QB5 for the season, Mayfield has two extremely enticing matchups on deck, as he takes on the Cowboys and the Panthers. Both defenses have struggled to stop the pass all season.
The one concern here is that the Panthers shut Mayfield down in Week 13, holding him to 12.2 fantasy points. I'm willing to chalk that one up to randomness though, as Mayfield has been a top 10 fantasy quarterback in the team's other three games since the Week 11 bye.
Kyler Murray - Arizona Cardinals
- Week 16: at Carolina (6th)
- Week 17: at Los Angeles Rams (9th)
Kyler Murray is also set up well for success down the stretch, though his overall track record this season isn't at the level of Mayfield. Murray is the overall QB14, but he's a top 10 play for the next two weeks because he faces the Panthers and Rams.
That Rams game is of particular interest because when Murray faced the Rams back in Week 2, he finished as the overall fantasy QB1 for the week, throwing three touchdown passes and adding 59 rushing yards.
Tough Fantasy Playoff Schedules - Quarterbacks
Jared Goff - Detroit Lions
- Week 16: at Chicago (31st)
- Week 17: at San Francisco (26th)
Jared Goff has a nightmare playoff schedule as he faces the Bears and 49ers. San Francisco allows the second-fewest passing yards per game while the Bears allow an average of just 1.0 touchdowns per game while picking off 0.79 passes per contest.
Jared Goff hasn’t played in a cold weather game yet in 2024
It’ll be COLD in the Windy City Sunday
His last few “cold weather” games
2023 Week 14 @ CHI
- 161 yds, 1 TD, 2 INTs2022 Week 15 @ NYJ
- 252 yds, 1 TD2022 Week 18 @ GB
- 224 yds2020 Week 16 @ SEA
- 234 yds, 1 INT pic.twitter.com/0QeMDsc6h4— RotoBaller NFL (@RotoBallerNFL) December 18, 2024
With David Montgomery hurt, the Lions will likely need to throw the ball more, offering more opportunities for Goff to make mistakes. His 2.3% interception rate is his highest since 2020.
Geno Smith - Seattle Seahawks
- Week 16: vs. Minnesota (25th)
- Week 17: at Chicago (31st)
Geno Smith is coming off an awful Week 15 game, scoring just 5.5 fantasy points against the Packers. He probably won't score that few points most weeks going forward, but he's still a full fade for the fantasy playoffs. Smith is also coming off a knee injury suffered in Week 15, which could hobble him a bit.
Smith's best weekly finish since Seattle's Week 10 bye was as the QB19 against the 49ers in Week 11. Since Week 6, he has just one top-10 finish. He's riding a disappointing performance streak into two very tough matchups.
Quarterback Sleeper
Mason Rudolph - Tennessee Titans
- Week 16: at Indianapolis (12th)
- Week 17: at Jacksonville (1st)
The Titans made the move to bench Will Levis and now look set to start Mason Rudolph for the remainder of the season.
Trusting Rudolph in fantasy is definitely risky, but he has two very juicy matchups coming up and he's looked solid in the games he's played this year, finishing just outside the top 12 in two of his three starts. He was QB13 after coming in for Levis last week despite playing just 53% of Tennessee's offensive snaps.
Softer Fantasy Playoff Schedules - Running Backs
Bucky Irving - Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Week 16: at Dallas (6th)
- Week 17: vs. Carolina (1st)
Tampa Bay players are going to be a popular topic in this article because the next two weeks are set up great for the team to find success in fantasy.
Any time a running back takes on the Panthers this year, you have to highlight it. Carolina allows an absurd 173.0 rushing yards per game, making them the only team to even allow over 145 yards per contest on the ground. If you can play a back against Carolina, you do it.
KEEP IT A BUC 💰
📺: #TBvsLAC on FOX
🗳️: 1 RT = 1 #ProBowlVote for @BuckyIrving pic.twitter.com/qpK3qjuz4q— Tampa Bay Buccaneers (@Buccaneers) December 15, 2024
Before that, Irving takes on the Cowboys, who allow the fourth-most rushing yards per game and the most rushing touchdowns. Irving can be a league winner over the next two weeks.
Bijan Robinson - Atlanta Falcons
- Week 16: vs. New York Giants (4th)
- Week 17: at Washington (19th)
Bijan Robinson is the RB5 in half PPR and remains a top-five play going forward. Week 16 against the Giants is the clear smash week here, but Week 17 against the Commanders is a sneaky good matchup.
While Washington only allows the 19th-most fantasy points per game to running backs, the team has allowed the ninth-most rushing yards this season.
Tough Fantasy Playoff Schedules - Running Backs
Rico Dowdle - Dallas Cowboys
- Week 16: vs. Tampa Bay (20th)
- Week 17: at Philadelphia (31st)
Rico Dowdle has gone over 100 yards in three consecutive games including smashing the Panthers last week for 149, but it's going to be tough to keep that momentum going in the fantasy playoffs.
Dowdle's Week 17 meeting with one of the league's best run defenses is particularly worrisome. The Eagles held him to 53 yards when the teams met in Week 10, his second-fewest yards since returning to the lineup in Week 9.
Joe Mixon - Houston Texans
- Week 16: at Kansas City (32nd)
- Week 17: vs. Baltimore (26th)
Joe Mixon has gone over 100 yards in all but four games this season, but two of those instances have come over Houston's last three games, with Tennessee holding him to 22 yards and then Miami only letting Mixon rush for 23 last week.
Now, he faces two of the top three run defenses in the league by rushing yards allowed. The Ravens and Chiefs are two of just five teams allowing under 100 rushing yards per contest.
Running Back Sleeper
Ameer Abdullah - Las Vegas Raiders
- Week 16: vs. Jacksonville (3rd)
- Week 17: at New Orleans (9th)
Look, I don't trust the Raiders rushing attack any more than you do, but Ameer Abdullah is coming off a strong showing against the Falcons last weekend and has scored three receiving touchdowns in the last five weeks.
#Raiders RB Week 15 Usage (Sincere McCormick hurt early)
- Ameer Abdullah: 46% snaps, 3 carries, 21 routes, 7 targets (66 yds, TD)
- Alexander Mattison: 32% snaps, 7 carries, 8 routes, 4 targets (24 yds)I am interested in Abdullah only because they get the Jags next week
— Michael F. Florio (@MichaelFFlorio) December 17, 2024
He faces a Jaguars team that's allowed the second-most receiving yards to running backs, then a Saints defense that's allowed 14 rushing touchdowns. Fellow back mate Sincere McCormick was also lost for the season, which should help Abdullah see more touches.
Softer Fantasy Playoff Schedules - Wide Receiver
Jakobi Meyers - Las Vegas Raiders
- Week 16: vs. Jacksonville (3rd)
- Week 17: at New Orleans (5th)
I hate how much the schedule is making me care about the Raiders right now, but it's hard to ignore a wide receiver who gets to face two of the five worst teams when it comes to allowing fantasy points to wide receivers.
There is a caveat here though, which is Meyers needs Aidan O'Connell at quarterback. If the team starts Desmond Ridder again, no plus matchup is going to save Meyers.
Calvin Ridley - Tennessee Titans
- Week 16: at Indianapolis (23rd)
- Week 17: at Jacksonville (3rd)
Based solely on fantasy points allowed, that meeting with the Colts might not look that appealing, but overall the Colts allow the 10th-most passing yards in the NFL, so there's upside there.
Big bump to Calvin Ridley with a functional albeit boring QB in Rudolph https://t.co/c4p9TaXSr2
— Eric T (@EricTNFL) December 17, 2024
Ridley struggled against the Colts when these teams first met as he failed to catch any of his eight targets, but that game was with Will Levis under center. The team is now starting Rudolph, so it should be better equipped to take advantage of these matchups.
Tough Fantasy Playoff Schedules - Wide Receiver
Amon-Ra St. Brown - Detroit Lions
- Week 16: at Chicago (29th)
- Week 17: at San Francisco (27th)
Look, you obviously can't bench Amon-Ra St. Brown, but he has two extremely difficult matchups on deck, so you can at least build the rest of your lineup around the fact that your best receiver's floor is lower than usual.
St. Brown finished as the WR38 in his first meeting with the Bears. San Francisco allows the second-fewest passing yards in the league. This could be a rough stretch, so you might want to include someone with big-play upside in your flex spot to potentially mitigate a potentially disappointing game from St. Brown.
Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp - Los Angeles Rams
- Week 16: at New York Jets (26th)
- Week 17: vs. Arizona (22nd)
Like with St. Brown, fantasy managers can't bench Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp. Especially not Nacua, who has finished lower than WR23 just once since he returned from injury in Week 8.
However, expectations have to be tempered as the Rams take on two very good pass defenses. The Jets allow the fifth-fewest passing yards in the NFL while the Cardinals have allowed just 11 touchdowns to wide receivers through 14 games.
Wide Receiver Sleeper
Christian Watson - Green Bay Packers
- Week 16: vs. New Orleans (5th)
- Week 17: at Minnesota (1st)
The Packers have two very juicy matchups coming up for their passing game. Christian Watson has seen inconsistent usage all season, but he has 50 or more receiving yards in four of his last five games. We just have to ignore that in the other game, he failed to record a single catch.
Jordan Love Sicko throw of the week.
Assist from Christian Watson. pic.twitter.com/VMDsERQBfS
— Jacob Morley (@JacobMorley) December 16, 2024
Green Bay faces two of just five teams to allow 240 or more passing yards per game. Watson's risky because he's known to have a few quiet games at times, but this schedule makes him worth the risk.
Softer Fantasy Playoff Schedules - Tight End
Cade Otton - Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Week 16: at Dallas (20th)
- Week 17: vs. Carolina (2nd)
We return one final time to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. While the Week 16 meeting with the Cowboys isn't the softest on paper, Dallas has allowed six touchdown passes to opposing tight ends this season.
Then there's the Carolina game. No team has allowed more touchdowns to tight ends than the Panthers, as they're the only NFL team to allow double-digit scores to the position this season.
Dalton Schultz - Houston Texans
- Week 16: at Kansas City (5th)
- Week 17: vs. Baltimore (11th)
Both of these defenses have improved against tight ends after a poor start to the year, but that doesn't mean Houston Texans tight end Dalton Schultz can't take advantage.
#Texans tight end Dalton Schultz not on injury report after getting dinged Sunday @KPRC2 https://t.co/NxWNu4sFcY pic.twitter.com/X1g07KLbuw
— Aaron Wilson (@AaronWilson_NFL) December 17, 2024
The Chiefs have allowed over 1,000 receiving yards to tight ends this season, while that Ravens game will come on short rest, as it's a Christmas Day game. Just generally, I'd expect the games that day to feature a lot of offense since the defenses are more likely to be fatigued from the short week than the offenses are.
Tough Fantasy Playoff Schedules - Tight End
Kyle Pitts - Atlanta Falcons
- Week 16: vs. New York Giants (30th)
- Week 17: at Washington (15th)
Kyle Pitts hasn't finished as a top 20 fantasy tight end since Week 10. His four catches against Vegas last week were his first time going over one catch since Week 10 against the Saints.
Now, he faces a very good Giants defense and a solid Commanders defense in the fantasy playoffs. New York has allowed the fifth-fewest receiving yards to the position while the Commanders have allowed the seventh-fewest.
Hunter Henry - New England Patriots
- Week 16: at Buffalo (26th)
- Week 17: vs. Los Angeles Chargers (29th)
Hunter Henry's had a solid year for the Patriots, sitting as the overall TE13, but his fantasy playoff schedule is a nightmare.
Up first are the Bills, who've allowed three touchdowns to the tight end position this season, and then it gets even more difficult against the Chargers, who've allowed just one. Additionally, Buffalo allows the ninth-fewest yards to tight ends.
Tight End Sleeper
Chig Okonkwo - Tennessee Titans
- Week 16: at Indianapolis (3rd)
- Week 17: at Jacksonville (8th)
Count me among the people who expected a Chig Okonkwo breakout this year, a breakout that just never materialized. Okonkwo has finished as a top 10 tight end just twice, but he has a great shot to perform down the stretch. Okonkwo, who is coming off a season-high 10 targets against the Bengals last week, takes on two very beatable defenses.
It's worth noting that both teams held him in check in their first meetings, but the Colts have allowed nine receiving touchdowns to tight ends while the Jaguars have allowed seven. Okonkwo is a big, athletic tight end with the speed to terrorize defenses in the open field and rack up big gains, which is exactly what we want from our tight ends in fantasy.
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