RADIO
Fantasy football best ball drafts are becoming more and more popular every single year. Whether you are an experienced player or a first-timer, it is important to go into these drafts with a strategy. I wrote about my best ball strategy here.
But the strategy is only the first part. It is very important, but just as important is knowing the players who fit into a strategy. It is great to say you want to take receivers early, but if you do not know where to find value at RB later in the draft, you are doing yourself a disservice.
Not only are these players who fit my best ball strategy very well, but they are just players who I think will produce and outlive their ADP. Many have the upside to be league-changers for your team. These are players who I will often be targeting in my redraft leagues unless otherwise stated. This article will focus on players going in the first 10 rounds. I will have another with all of my late-round targets as well.
Be sure to check all of our fantasy football rankings for 2024 fantasy football drafts:- Quarterback fantasy football rankings
- Running back fantasy football rankings
- Wide receiver fantasy football rankings
- Tight end fantasy football rankings
- Defense (D/ST) fantasy football rankings
- Fantasy football rookie rankings
- Best ball fantasy football rankings
- Superflex fantasy football rankings
- Dynasty fantasy football rankings
- IDP fantasy football rankings
Fantasy Football Best Ball Quarterback Targets
When it comes to QBs, my strategy is simple. I am targeting one of Anthony Richardson, Kyler Murray, or Jayden Daniels to be my QB1. Richardson averaged 18.2 fantasy PPG in his four games last year. But in the two that he finished, he averaged 25.3 per game, which would have blown away the competition. He led QBs with 0.76 fantasy points per dropback. Plus, he has the full offseason to work with Shane Steichen, who has proved he can elevate an offense and passing attack, with an improved receiving corps from a year ago. A fifth-round price may seem steep, but his upside is met by only Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts.
Anthony Richardson
- 3 pass TDs, 136 rush yds, 4 TDs, in 4 games
- 18.2 fantasy PPG
- But in his 2 full games: 25.3 fantasy PPG, top 4 fantasy QB both timesShane Steichen got Minshew paid and a career year out of Jalen Hurts + Colts added weapons
Get VERY excited
— Michael F. Florio (@MichaelFFlorio) May 7, 2024
Murray has been a QB1 every year of his career in fantasy PPG. When healthy, he has routinely finished in the top five. Yet, you get him as the QB7. Murray, who is a full year removed from that torn ACL now, should be able to run even more than he did last year. Plus, at the end of last year, his top receivers were banged up and constantly in and out of the lineup. Now, he will not only have Trey McBride, but a huge upgrade in Marvin Harrison Jr. as well. Murray is an excellent QB1 value.
Jayden Daniels is my fallback, but he may be the best value of the bunch. Not only did I really like Daniels as a prospect, but he is ideal for fantasy purposes due to his rushing ability. In his last two years in college, he ran for over 2,000 yards and 21 touchdowns. He can run for 800-plus yards as a rookie, something only very few QBs can say. He also has a proven top pass- catcher in Terry McLaurin and an OC (Kliff Kingsbury) who has experience with a running QB. The best part? There are so many safe QB2s (Jared Goff, Justin Herbert, Tua Tagovailoa, Matthew Stafford) that you can pair with any of these three upside QBs to cover your bases.
Fantasy Football Best Ball Running Back Targets
The best value to find running backs this year is in Rounds 3-4. You can find Derrick Henry, Kyren Williams, Travis Etienne, and Isiah Pacheco all going in that range. While all are strong values, my personal favorites are Henry and Pacheco.
Henry might be 30, but he is still the king. For the first time in his career, he will not be the focal point of opposing defenses. They will not be able to just load the box every play against him because of Lamar Jackson. Plus, even if he lost a step, I think he can still barrel forward. Last year, the Ravens RBs scored 20 rushing touchdowns -- 15 of them came from five yards or closer. Henry could easily score 15 touchdowns this season and flirt with 20. The age is a concern, but the situation trumps it for me.
Pacheco is my favorite value, though, in the early rounds. He averaged 19 fantasy PPG in games he played over 60 percent of the snaps for last season. His target rate more than doubled and the Chiefs continued to make him more and more involved in the passing game in the later portion of the season, including the playoffs and Super Bowl. Samaje Perine is a threat to play the Jerick McKinnon role, but if Pacheco takes the next step as a pass blocker, he could still set a career high in catches. Plus, we know the Chiefs offense will be one of the best in football. If they get the long ball back, that should only help create running lanes. Sure, they may not give him his full workload in September, but come December, he will be a league-winner you want on your team. Pacheco’s breakout, top-5 season is coming.
Which RB are you looking to add to your @NFLFantasy team? @MichaelFFlorio drops some names 👀 pic.twitter.com/BSOEcN63ci
— NFL Network (@nflnetwork) July 11, 2024
James Conner is potentially the biggest value on the board. He goes in the eighth round as a borderline RB2/3, despite coming off arguably a career year. Last year, the only RB with a higher rate of runs going for 10-plus yards than Conner (14.9 percent) was Christian McCaffrey (16.2 percent). Conner was also top two in yards after contact per touch. Now, he is in a better offense with his QB healthy and should get more scoring chances. A better passing attack could also help create more running holes. I know he will get hurt at some point, but you get the injury discount baked into his ADP. While he is healthy, he will give you borderline RB1 numbers.
Jonathon Brooks was well on his way to a breakout season in Texas last year before he tore his ACL. He still managed to run for over 1,110 yards and 10 touchdowns in 10 games. He can also be utilized out of the backfield as a receiver. He will start the year on the PUP meaning he will be out the first four games of the season. But when he returns, he just has to beat out Chuba Hubbard and Miles Sanders to be the lead back on the Panthers. Head coach Dave Canales just heavily featured his RB in the passing attack last year with Rachaad White in Tampa Bay. Brooks is a home-run type of pick with the upside to finish as an RB1 in the second half of the season if he can regain his Texas form. Even if he is slow out of the gate, this is a player you want on your roster late in the season. You can nab him in the eighth round, which mitigates much of the risk.
Jaylen Warren is a very talented RB. He was top five in a number of categories last year, including explosive run rate, missed tackles forced per attempt, rushing yards over expectation, and target share. While Najee Harris will never go away, Warren brings a much higher ceiling due to his explosiveness and pass-catching chops. New OC Arthur Smith has shown a tendency for using two backs and it is certainly possible Warren could carve out an even larger role than he did last year.
Jaylen Warren is a good RB
- 8% explosive run (4th)
- 16% runs 10+ yds (3rd)
- 8% runs for 15+ yds (4th)
- 4% runs for 20+ yds (6th)
- 0.34 missed tackles forced per att (2nd)
- 3.5 yds after contact per att (3rd)
- 162 rush yds over expectation (5th)
- 14% tgt share (5th)— Michael F. Florio (@MichaelFFlorio) May 8, 2024
Raheem Mostert is old, I get it. He could fall off the cliff at any point. But this is a guy who just finished top five in total points and fantasy PPG on a team that will both run a lot and score a ton of points. I would not be willing to draft him as an RB1, but as an RB3 in the eighth round? Yes, that is a chance I am willing to take.
Fantasy Football Best Ball Wide Receiver Targets
My strategy is largely based on getting an elite receiver in Round 1. There are nine players who I believe should be viewed as true WR1s for fantasy football purposes. They are CeeDee Lamb, Tyreek Hill, Ja'Marr Chase, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Justin Jefferson, A.J. Brown, Puka Nacua, Garrett Wilson, and Marvin Harrison Jr. I am almost ensured to leave the first round with one of these studs on my team. Worst case, if I am late in Round 1, I could grab a Breece Hall or Bijan Robinson if they slide and get Wilson or Harrison in the early portion of Round 2.
Amari Cooper is a huge value who you can nab in the fourth or fifth rounds -- and that is in leagues where WRs are heavily pulled up the board. Come redraft leagues, you may get an even bigger discount. In his last six seasons, Cooper has finished as a top-20 receiver in total points and top 24 in fantasy PPG in five of them. He finished last year's top 20 in both despite having just 66 percent of his targets be catchable. He is one of three receivers with at least 100 targets in six straight seasons and he possesses the ability to go otherworldly in any week. Plus, if his QB can find his old ways, there is some untapped upside.
Just when I thought I was out, Calvin Ridley pulls me back in! Last year, Will Levis led the league (by far) in deep throws (21 percent), hero throws (9 percent), and first-read throws (73 percent). That led to a lot of deep passes to DeAndre Hopkins that gave him a high ceiling and often helped salvage some weeks. I would expect Ridley to take over as the No. 1, meaning he should have a ton of volume go his way. Plus, there’s chatter of him playing the Chase role in new play-caller Brian Callahan’s system. And the best part? You can get him as a borderline WR3, sometimes even as a four. He brings all the same upside as last year, just at a reduced cost.
Marquise Brown is banged up to start the season, but that leads to him falling in drafts. If you are willing to wait a couple of weeks you can get him at a discount. When healthy he has the chance to remind the world how dangerous he is. Injuries to both him and his QB ruined his time in Arizona, but do not forget how electric he was at times then and in Baltimore. He still has the juice and will be the best deep threat that Patrick Mahomes has played with since the loss of Tyreek Hill. Injuries are a concern, but this is football, they’re a concern to most players on the field. If healthy, the worst-case scenario is he is an inconsistent WR3 with a high weekly ceiling. Best case? He finishes as a WR1 as Mahomes and the Chiefs offense look like their old selves. This is a gamble worth taking.
Diontae Johnson is still one of the best separators in the NFL. While his time with Kenny Pickett was disappointing, do not forget that he posted WR1 and WR2 seasons prior to that. He had the third-lowest rate of all catchable targets last season. Now, he will join the Panthers, who revamped their offense by adding to the offensive line, hiring QB whisperer Dave Canales, and putting Bryce Young in a position to take a step forward in Year 2. If nothing else, Johnson should be able to volume his way to a top-30 finish, with the upside being top 20. You can currently nab him outside the top-40 WRs.
You may be surprised to hear Chris Godwin had just six fewer targets than Mike Evans last season. The production was not the same, but that could be attested to a move outside for Godwin. He was much more efficient from the slot, as he has always been. New Bucs OC Liam Coen has spoken about using Godwin in the slot more and talked about him playing the Cooper Kupp role in the offense. The best part? Due to last year, Godwin is barely being drafted as a WR3.
A move to the slot would also be huge for Godwin
- Out wide last year: 75 targets, 45 rec, 535 yards, 65.1 rating, 1.7 yds/route, 14.5 EPA
- From slot: 48 tgt, 33 rec, 448 yards, 2 TD, 112.2 rating, 2.2 yds/route, 27.4 EPA
— Michael F. Florio (@MichaelFFlorio) June 25, 2024
Ladd McConkey reminded me of Tyler Lockett coming into the NFL Draft. He can win at all three layers of the field, he is an excellent route runner with good hands, and he can win downfield and after the catch. He was my favorite receiver outside the Big Three in this class. Sure, I expect the Chargers to run a lot, but I am not going to shy away from taking him as a WR4. McConkey could quickly become the top target for Justin Herbert in an offense that should be able to efficiently move the ball. He should crush on play action, which will be a staple in the Chargers offense. He is a great receiver to target as the double-digit rounds near.
Khalil Shakir posted the best catch rate ever by a receiver with at least 45 targets last season (86.7 percent). He also led the position in fantasy points per opportunity, yards per target, was second in fantasy points per target, and third in YAC. So, he was off the charts on a per-target basis. He also earned more trust from Josh Allen and the coaching staff late in the season. Now with 86 percent of the Bills' WR targets vacated, Shakir is a strong target as a WR4/5. I like Keon Coleman as well, who brings the highest ceiling of the bunch, but Shakir brings a nice combo of safe floor and upside at a cheaper cost.
Fantasy Football Best Ball Tight End Targets
Trey McBride broke out in a big way last season and it only got better when he started playing with Kyler Murray. He averaged 14.9 fantasy PPG with Murray, which would have led the position. He also had a 25 percent target share with him, which also would have led the position. He finished as a top-7 fantasy TE in five of the eight games he played with Murray. He averaged 2.2 yards per route run, which was top three at the position. Plus, he only scored 10 percent of his fantasy points from TDs, the lowest of the top-10 tight ends last season. His 17-game pace from when he broke out was 144 targets, 112 catches, 1,114 yards, and five touchdowns. He could easily finish as the TE1 this year and you get a bit of a discount on him compared to Sam LaPorta and Travis Kelce.
If you miss out on the elite tight ends or just don’t want to pay that price, Dalton Kincaid and Kyle Pitts are elite fallback options. They are the sweet spot at the tight-end position where you do not need to use a top-four-round pick to get them, but they still bring a similar upside as the top options. Kincaid should be the top target for Josh Allen and the Bills this season. He showed promise last year with the fourth-most catches ever by a rookie TE. He really flashed when Dawson Knox was sidelined. But with the Bills vacating nearly 90 percent of their receiver targets, there will be a ton designed around Kincaid. This is not just taking a gamble on his talent, but on Allen’s as well.
Pitts has been held back by his QB play and his play-caller the last two seasons. Last year, Desmond Ridder and Taylor Heinicke combined to be the bottom two in uncatchable target rate. The year prior, 59 percent of Pitts' targets were uncatchable (the highest rate in the NFL). Kirk Cousins last year was top two in catchable target rate. Plus, he has a new play-caller who continues to talk Pitts up as a weapon in the passing attack. He is fully healthy now as the knee injury was more severe than let on last year. Plus, do not forget that he is still the elite prospect who had one of the best rookie TE seasons of all time. I will still be taking shots at him in the fifth and sixth rounds of drafts.
Make sure to follow Michael on X, @MichaelFFlorio.
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