Fantasy Football Players to Target and Avoid in 2024 - NFC South

Mediocrity defined the NFC South in 2023. The division winner Tampa Bay Buccaneers recorded a 9-8 record, narrowly edging out 9-8 New Orleans and 7-10 Atlanta.

But who cares about records? Teams can be awful and there's still value to be found in individual performers. Some of the biggest values in fantasy football last season (Alvin Kamara, Mike Evans, Rachaad White) came from the division, which admittedly had its fair share of disappointments.

Our RotoBaller team is dissecting each division to bring you the best players to target and avoid in 2024. Below, the NFC South takes center stage.

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Atlanta Falcons

Players to Target - Bijan Robinson

Targeting a running back locked into the first round of fantasy drafts? What a concept! If you believe the new coaching staff in Atlanta, Bijan Robinson's usage could be at or near league-best levels.

"In as simple of a form as you can possibly make it, it's 'get the ball to Bijan as much as you can in as many ideal situations that you possibly can.'" - Raheem Morris

Robinson was the RB16 (PPR) on a points-per-game basis in his rookie year, so it's understandable if his managers last season are skeptical about his 2024 prospects. An argument was made last offseason about the Atlanta offense revolving around Robinson.

Offensive coordinator Zac Robinson will run an offense similar to the ones seen in Minnesota and Los Angeles, plus Kirk Cousins is in town. This will be a far cry from the Arthur Smith-led, rotation-heavy approach captained by Desmond Ridder and Taylor Heinicke. For starters, Robinson will be given more than two goal-line carries, his total in his rookie season. Tyler Allgeier also won't carry the rock 186 times as a backup.

Coupling that with how dynamic of a receiver Robinson is, the sky is the limit. Robinson tallied 58 receptions (sixth among running backs) with a respectable 1.26 yards per route run. His 487 receiving yards were fourth among running backs. Robinson should only be trailing Christian McCaffrey on draft big boards at the RB position.

Players to Avoid - None

*winces* I'm cautiously optimistic about Kyle Pitts in 2024. Cousins is the best quarterback Pitts has played with in his young career and he's shown a propensity to target tight ends (nearly 27% of his pass attempts last season). Pitts was consistently taken off the field, potentially due to injury, instead of the former coaching staff utilizing him correctly. A similar case can be made for Drake London, whose advanced metrics compete with the league's elite. He's been hampered by mediocre quarterback play and a dedicated rushing attack. Unless Cousins has a setback in his Achilles recovery, the two top receiving threats in Atlanta could have career-best seasons.

Carolina Panthers

Players to Target - Diontae Johnson

Do you believe in Dave Canales as a quarterback whisperer? That's going to determine whether you buy into Diontae Johnson as a middle-round draft target.

Canales was brought on to be the new head coach for the Panthers after reviving the careers of Geno Smith and Baker Mayfield. Canales served as the quarterbacks coach in Seattle when Smith threw for 4,282 yards and led the league in completion percentage. Tampa Bay took notice and brought him in as the offensive coordinator, and Mayfield reached 4,000 yards for the first time in the NFL while hitting career-best numbers in completion percentage and touchdowns. Can he do the same for Bryce Young following a disastrous rookie campaign?

Midway through the 2023 season, there was barely a receiving option on the Panthers worth rostering. Adam Thielen was probably hanging out on fantasy football benches because of his early-season success but managers that started him most likely did so with regret. Jonathan Mingo could not separate from any defenders. So, new GM Dan Morgan made the most important roster move to help a young quarterback by trading for a reliable wide receiver.

Diontae Johnson is literally Adam Thielen with juice

He should have a big bounce back year with Canales as HC and Bryce Young under centerpic.twitter.com/ax5xTV4Ibg

— Snoog’s Dynasty Society (@FFSnoog) June 17, 2024

Johnson is used to being peppered with targets. He's earned 140+ targets in three of his last four campaigns. Last season was the miss, when injuries, poor quarterback play, and the emergence of George Pickens put a cap on his target numbers. Johnson endured the third-lowest catchable target rate in the league in 2023.

If we're buying into an improved Carolina offense (it would be very difficult for it not to be better in 2024), then there aren't many receivers being selected near Johnson with similar potential volume. Johnson specializes in separating from defenders quickly at the line of scrimmage, which will give Young a target early in his progression. In PPR formats, fantasy managers are getting a safe-floor receiver, with the ability to be even more should the offense and Young take several steps forward.

Players to Avoid - Miles Sanders / Adam Thielen

One offseason removed from inking a four-year, $25M deal, Miles Sanders' contract now ranks among the worst in football. The former Eagles runner averaged 1.3 fewer yards per carry than his previous career-low mark and lost his starting job to Chuba Hubbard five weeks into the season. The Panthers then spent a second-round pick on Jonathon Brooks. Don't let the name recognition trip you into a mistake on draft day. The writing is already on the wall for Sanders' career in Carolina.

Speaking of remembering the good times for Carolina players, let's reminisce on the Adam Thielen early-season explosion. He was the WR3 through six weeks of NFL action with 49 catches and four touchdowns. By the time the season wrapped, Thielen was the WR17. From Week 9 on, Thielen surpassed 11 PPR points three times and failed to hit paydirt.

New Carolina management did not repeat the same mistakes as their predecessors and won't trot Thielen onto the field as the top receiving option. Johnson will lead the team in targets and rookie first-round pick Xavier Legette will eat into Thielen's snaps.

New Orleans Saints

Players to Target - Chris Olave, Rashid Shaheed

Chris Olave was the WR16 last season with an uptick in receptions (72 to 87), yards (1,042 to 1,123), and touchdowns (four to five) from his rookie season. Yet, he was a fantasy football disappointment.

The Saints offense was stale, bland, unoriginal, trite, and outdated (how many synonyms can I rattle off?) in 2023. Derek Carr and Co. struggled on third downs and in the red zone, plus they had a wide receiver rotation that made little sense. Olave picked up a 59.3% snap share and only played over 80% of the team's snaps in five games. An ankle injury toward the end of the season did diminish his overall playing time but there were crucial plays before that when Olave was sidelined.

The Saints were dead last in pre-snap motion and rate of play action on pass plays. With new offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak in tow, adding creativity to their play calls was a point of emphasis in OTAs. Kubiak served as the passing game coordinator for the San Francisco offense last season. Although he was not the play-caller, the 49ers sent a player or players in motion on 67% of their pass plays.

One thing that stood out to me yesterday was that even in Day 1 OTA install the #Saints were incorporating motion into drills. We already knew motion/play action would be a strong emphasis, but it’s telling that we’re seeing it this early. pic.twitter.com/U1Lr1NO5zj

— Jeff Nowak (@Jeff_Nowak) May 22, 2024

Olave and Rashid Shaheed, the presumptive second receiver in New Orleans, both won routes against man coverage at a 40+% clip (Shaheed slightly edging out his counterpart). Carr boasted the best quarterback completion percentage against man coverage last season (62.6%).

The problem is, of course, that NFL defenses also run zone coverage and Carr struggled against those looks. Pointing to coaching once again, the 49ers were one of the best passing offenses against zone and two-high coverages. Shaheed flourishes against the two-high look.

Tyreek Hill is impossibly elite@FantasyPtsData pic.twitter.com/VAkL1WR2G3

— Scott Barrett (@ScottBarrettDFB) June 23, 2024

Olave will cost a second-round selection again this season (although he may have slipped into the early third last year). If managers are unable (or unwilling) to spend the draft capital on Olave, they can take a gamble on Shaheed in the double-digit rounds. At worst, he doesn't work out and he's swapped for a midseason waiver-wire addition. At best, he's winning weeks in your lineup with his game-breaking speed and deep-ball prowess. Plus, with the new NFL kickoff rules, Shaheed could be due for a return touchdown or two.

Players to Avoid - Jamaal Williams, Juwan Johnson

As you may be able to glean from this article, I'm (maybe foolishly so) bullish on the New Orleans offense in 2024. This is more of a warning for casual fantasy football players who check depth charts and read a couple of articles before joining their draft lobby: Don't be fooled by the Saints running back room.

Jamaal Williams was one of the least efficient running backs (2.9 yards per carry) league-wide last season and is getting up there in the age department. Second-year runner Kendre Miller may be ready to take over backup duties after Kamara, leaving very little work for Williams. If fantasy managers are specifically targeting an insurance running back to Kamara, Miller is the better bet, although both will probably rotate touches if Kamara misses time.

Juwan Johnson is slated to be the starting tight end for the Saints in 2024 and he's been serviceable in brief spurts the last two seasons. But he's recovering from foot surgery and is a question mark to be ready for Week 1. With Taysom Hill still loitering on the sidelines, ready to snipe targets and touches in the red zone, plus Johnson missing the majority (if not all) of training camp, there isn't much reason to select Johnson on draft day.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Players to Target - Chris Godwin

You can find a WR3 with three straight 1,000-yard seasons in the sixth or seventh round of fantasy drafts?

The reception and touchdown numbers declined with Baker Mayfield under center and Chris Godwin lining up as an outside receiver. He also had just an 8.9 average depth of target. Mike Evans flourished in the Dave Canales offensive scheme, but Godwin barely finished inside the top 30 in PPR formats. But the usage numbers are very similar.

Touchdowns were the problem. Seven of Godwin's 131 targets came inside the 10-yard line and 15 in the red zone. Somehow, only two were converted into scores. Godwin's expected touchdowns were 6.2. Positive touchdown regression is almost a guarantee.

New Buccaneers offensive coordinator Liam Coen is planning to utilize Godwin more in the slot in 2024. He played 32% of his snaps in the slot last season. In the prior years, Godwin played 50% or more in the slot.

Mayfield averaged 33 pass attempts per game last season. There is a new offensive coordinator in town, but if the running game continues to struggle (more on that below), the Buccaneers will continue to put the ball in the air. Godwin is a low-gamble addition to any fantasy roster.

Players to Avoid - Rachaad White

Lost in Rachaad White's RB4 finish from a season ago is the fact that he's failed to be an efficient runner for the first two years of his NFL career. The 25-year-old garnered 272 carries, the second most in the league, and failed to reach 1,000 yards on the ground. Through 401 career attempts, he's averaging 3.66 yards per carry. Even worse, he led the league in carry rate facing a light box.

White won fantasy football on sheer volume. He saw 70 targets (64 receptions) in addition to his hefty career count. He converted all of those touches into nine touchdowns (six rushing, three receiving). However, his 0.78 fantasy points per opportunity were below the league average. Historically, that doesn't bode well for repeated success.

The Top 15 RBs by ADP on @UnderdogFantasy and their career Rush Yards over Expected + Success Rate per @NextGenStats

Rachaad White grades out as **by far** the most inefficient rusher of the group. Not even close pic.twitter.com/t2zCTDaN13

— Sam Sherman (@Sherman_FFB) May 21, 2024

Could White see a massive workload again in 2024? Absolutely. Chase Edmonds and Sean Tucker remain on the team from last year's roster and neither pushed White for playing time. Fourth-round rookie Bucky Irving is the name to watch. He caught 56 passes in his final season at Oregon and averaged 6.5 yards per carry in his tenure with the Ducks. It's a tall ask for a rookie with that draft capital to eat into the touches of the starter. If he (or any other running back) does, White's value takes a tumble.

I'm not completely avoiding White in drafts. He's a good value in the fifth or sixth round. Am I spending a third- or fourth-round pick on him? No, and Derrick Henry, Joe Mixon, Isiah Pacheco, and James Cook are preferred to White.

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