Fantasy Football Players To Target And Avoid – NFC North

The 2024 NFL regular season is still a few months away. However, the Scott Fish Bowl is underway, meaning it’s officially redraft fantasy football season. While most redraft leagues won’t kick off until mid-August, it’s never too early to prepare.

Fantasy players can build a winning roster in multiple ways. Your draft strategy could change depending on league size, lineup build, and other factors. However, the one thing fantasy players always want to do is target value players and avoid those with a significant chance of busting.

Today, I have five players from the NFC North who you want to target and five you want to avoid drafting in 2024. Let’s dive into it.

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NFC North Fantasy Football Players To Target

Caleb Williams (QB – CHI)

No. 1 overall NFL Draft picks are rarely set up to succeed as rookies. Bryce Young was the top pick in 2023 but had no weapons and an awful offensive line in front of him. Thankfully, that won’t happen to Williams after the Bears made multiple additions to their offensive line.

More importantly, Chicago added Keenan Allen, Rome Odunze, Gerald Everett, and D'Andre Swift to a receiving corps led by DJ Moore and Cole Kmet. Williams has an outstanding supporting cast. He also can make plays with his legs, giving him significant fantasy upside. Don’t be surprised if Williams is a top-eight quarterback as a rookie.

Touchdown Caleb Williams, his first rushing score of the game.

USC up 17-7 with 28 seconds left in the first half. #USC pic.twitter.com/XI9azCzYVE

— Trevor Booth (@TrevorMBooth) November 27, 2022

Jared Goff (QB – DET)

Goff was the QB7 last season, averaging 17 fantasy points per game. The Lions had almost no turnover this offseason, holding onto offensive coordinator Ben Johnson after he led one of the most explosive offenses in the NFL in 2023. Furthermore, Goff has an outstanding trio of young pass-catchers in Amon-Ra St. Brown, Sam LaPorta, and Jahmyr Gibbs.

The one flaw with his fantasy outlook is that he is significantly worse outside than in a dome. Last year, he averaged one passing touchdown and 13.3 fantasy points per game in the five contests outside. By comparison, the veteran averaged 2.1 passing touchdowns and 19.9 fantasy points per game in 12 contests in a dome. Goff only has three games outside in 2024, making him one of my favorite quarterbacks to draft.

DJ Moore (WR – CHI)

After putting up WR2 numbers for years with the Carolina Panthers despite playing with awful quarterbacks, Moore was a popular breakout candidate last season. He was outstanding in his first year with the Bears, finishing the season as the WR6, averaging 14 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. Furthermore, the star receiver was even better when you removed the games he played with Tyson Bagent.

Moore averaged 8.3 targets and 16.8 fantasy points per game in the 12 contests Justin Fields finished. While the Bears added to their receiving corps this offseason, the veteran will remain the top guy in the passing game. Keenan Allen has missed nearly a third of the games over the past two years because of injuries, while Rome Odunze is a rookie.

Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR – DET)

Everyone has heard the saying, “you can’t win your league in the first round, but you can lose it.” If your first-round pick is a bust, it’s nearly impossible to win your league. That’s why St. Brown is one of my favorite first-round picks this year. He has been one of the most consistent wide receivers in fantasy football since the end of his rookie season.

The former USC star was WR8 in 2022 and the WR3 last year, averaging 15.2 half-point PPR fantasy points per game over those two seasons. St. Brown is the focal point of Detroit’s passing attack, posting the sixth-highest target share (27.9%) and the fourth-highest targets per route run rate (30%) among wide receivers with at least 70 routes in 2023 (per Fantasy Points Data). Furthermore, he had 10 receiving touchdowns, the fourth most in the NFL.

AMON-RA ST. BROWN 70-YARD TD

📺: #MINvsDET on FOX
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/X0vcyHUoyR pic.twitter.com/rUyhJjUi0c

— NFL (@NFL) January 7, 2024

Justin Jefferson (WR – MIN)

Jefferson has been the most dominant wide receiver since entering the NFL. The former LSU star has averaged 98.3 receiving yards per game in 60 career contests. By comparison, Puka Nacua (87.4 yards in 17 games) and Calvin Johnson (86.1 yards in 135 games) are the only two other receivers in league history to average more than 85 receiving yards per contest in their career with at least five games played.

More importantly, Jefferson has never finished lower than the WR8 in half-point PPR scoring on a points-per-game basis any year of his career. Last season, he had over 1,000 receiving yards despite missing seven games and leaving two others early. While some are worried that Jefferson will struggle without Kirk Cousins, the star receiver had two of his best fantasy performances in 2023 during the final three weeks of the year.

NFC North Fantasy Football Players To Avoid

Josh Jacobs (RB – GB)

Green Bay signed Jacobs to a massive four-year contract in free agency, surprising many. The former Alabama star will replace Aaron Jones as the Packers’ lead running back. However, the deal isn’t as significant as some believe. The team can easily get out of his contract after the upcoming season, meaning Jacobs is essentially playing on a one-year contract.

The veteran running back had an outstanding 2022 season, ending the year as the RB3, averaging 17.8 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. Unfortunately, he severely regressed last season. His yards per rushing attempt declined by 29%, his explosive run rate slipped by 52%, and his yards after contact per attempt dropped by 29% (per Fantasy Points Data). No one should be shocked if MarShawn Lloyd replaces Jacobs as the team’s starting running back.

Aaron Jones (RB – MIN)

Fantasy players loved what Jones did during the playoffs. The veteran was the RB2 in the postseason on a points-per-game basis, averaging 113 rushing yards, 1.5 touchdowns, and 23.4 half-point PPR fantasy points per contest against two talented defenses. However, he struggled with injuries during the regular season, missing six games and leaving others early.

Aaron Jones having a MONSTER game, but watch him grab his left hamstring at the end of this play as he gets close to the end zone.

Something to monitor.
pic.twitter.com/N3XpXxc4F1

— Jeff Mueller, PT, DPT (@jmthrivept) September 10, 2023

Unfortunately, Jones is coming off the worst fantasy season of his career since his rookie year. The veteran running back set career lows in yards per rushing attempt (4.5) and breakaway run rate (18.6%), per PFF. Furthermore, he had a lower missed tackles forced per rushing attempt rate (16%) than Royce Freeman (per Fantasy Points Data). Jones will turn 30 in December and struggled to stay healthy last season. He is on my do-not-draft list.

Keenan Allen (WR – CHI)

Allen was the WR8 last year, averaging 17.3 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. Furthermore, he was the WR3 on a points-per-game basis, outscoring every wide receiver other than Tyreek Hill (19.8) and CeeDee Lamb (19.7). However, his fantasy football outlook for 2024 took a massive hit in the offseason. Allen went from being Justin Herbert’s No. 1 wide receiver on a pass-happy offense to part of a crowded receiving corps in Chicago.

The veteran is a volume-based receiver, averaging 9.4 targets per game in his career. Unfortunately, he won’t see the same target share this season. Allen is a 32-year-old receiver and has missed 32.4% of the games the past two years because of injuries. Furthermore, he will have to fight off Rome Odunze for the No. 2 role.

Christian Watson (WR – GB)

Many had high hopes for Watson after the explosive receiver's dominating performance to end his rookie season. The former North Dakota State star was the WR7, averaging 15.2 half-point PPR fantasy points per game over the final eight contests in 2022, scoring 19 or more in half the matchups. Unfortunately, he struggled to stay healthy last year, missing eight games because of injuries, including the final five games of the regular season.

Furthermore, Watson struggled in the team’s two playoff games. He had only two receptions on three targets for 20 receiving yards, totaling fewer targets than Dontayvion Wicks and fewer yards than Bo Melton. More importantly, his role in the run game disappeared with the addition of Jayden Reed. After totaling 20 fantasy points on the ground as a rookie, Watson scored only 1.1 last year.

Jordan Addison (WR – MIN)

The Vikings offense could look drastically different in 2024 compared to last season. Kirk Cousins is a member of the Atlanta Falcons, while Sam Darnold is on track to be the team’s Week 1 starter. While many have high hopes for J.J. McCarthy, the rookie will likely have road bumps this year. Addison was the WR21 in 2023, averaging 11 half-point PPR fantasy points per game.

However, he was productive because of a high touchdown rate (9.3%). Seven of his 10 receiving scores as a rookie came in the eight games with Cousins. Addison also scored 40% of his receiving touchdowns with Justin Jefferson out of the lineup. The former USC star was the WR37, averaging 8.7 fantasy points per game without Cousins. Fantasy players should temper expectations for the second-year player.

Jordan Addison’s first NFL touchdown: pic.twitter.com/wb3sHBcSx0

— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) September 10, 2023

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