Fantasy Football Players to Target and Avoid in 2024 - AFC North

Fantasy football options are plentiful in the most competitive divisions in the NFL.

In the AFC North, all four teams finished above .500 in 2023. Three of the four squads made the postseason. This year, more rivalry fueled games are sprinkled throughout the regular season. And, of course, a boatload of fantasy football points to go around.

Our RotoBaller team is dissecting each division to bring you the best players to target and avoid in 2024. Below, the AFC North takes center stage.

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Baltimore Ravens

Players to Target - Derrick Henry

Derrick Henry will turn 31 before the 2024 regular season ends and his efficiency numbers have begun to slip. His 4.2 yards per carry were tied for the lowest mark of his career and he scored 0.78 fantasy points per opportunity (35th among running backs). He also led the league in carries for the fourth time in five years.

The Titans offense was more bad than good in 2023 and the team made a concerted effort to involve rookie Tyjae Spears. That won't be a problem for King Henry in 2024. He's part of the high-powered Baltimore offense now and there isn't as much competition for carries with Keaton Mitchell recovering from an ACL tear. Former Ravens Gus Edwards and J.K. Dobbins are teaming up together again in Los Angeles.

Edwards scored 13 touchdowns for the Baltimore backfield last season while only playing 42% of the team's snaps. Pairing Henry's usage with Baltimore's rushing and touchdown opportunities (the team led the league in run plays per game in 2023) is seemingly a perfect fit.

Reception totals will be a concern in PPR and half PPR formats, as has been the case for his entire career. His best result is 33 catches. Lamar Jackson doesn't tend to target his running backs often. Fantasy managers can slightly fade Henry in PPR leagues, but he should be a great value in non-PPR formats.

Players to Avoid - Rashod Bateman

The hype machine is working overtime this offseason for Rashod Bateman. The former first-round pick enters his fourth season with a combined 93 catches for 1,167 yards and four touchdowns. He's totaled 10 drops. Injuries have consistently taken him off the field. He played 16 games last season, almost matching the 18 he suited up for in his first two years. He's been such a disappointment that even he was surprised that the team offered him a two-year extension.

"Definitely didn’t see it coming, but it definitely means a lot. Just knowing that they want me here and having them in my corner, having the team trust me, having some type of security. It’s kind of like a fresh start for me." - Rashod Bateman

Yet, the team is propping him up as the next big thing once again. As stated above, the Ravens led the league in run plays per game last season. With Jackson and Henry together in a backfield, there's little reason to think that will change much in the new year.

Tight end Mark Andrews returns to the lineup after missing the final six regular-season games and one playoff game (he played just 18 snaps in the postseason loss to the Chiefs). He should command the most targets on the offense. If it's not him, 2023 first-round pick Zay Flowers will. At best, Bateman is third in the pecking order on a run-dominant offense. Don't buy the hype.

Cincinnati Bengals

Players to Target - Zack Moss / Chase Brown

For the first three seasons of his NFL career, Zack Moss was a punchline; a running back who entered the league with some buzz behind him, only to fail his way out of Buffalo. His fortunes changed backing up Jonathan Taylor in Indianapolis. With the starter missing chunks of time, Moss hit career-best totals in carries (183), rushing yards (794), catches (27), and touchdowns (seven). Through eight weeks in 2023, Moss was the RB4 in PPR formats.

Zack Moss had such a ridiculous first 4 games last season:

🔵 517 scrimmage yards
🔵 4 Touchdowns
pic.twitter.com/ooozlVjEmh

— SleeperNFL (@SleeperNFL) July 3, 2024

Although he's still average in the efficiency department, Moss was inked by Cincinnati to replace volume running back Joe Mixon. Fantasy managers selected Mixon last summer based on his projected workload and he delivered: third in opportunity share (78.9%), fifth in carries (257), third in red-zone touches (71), and ninth in receptions (52). There's a ton of vacated opportunities in the Bengals backfield.

The question: Will we see a healthy dose of Moss or will second-year professional Chase Brown eat into the workload more than he did last season? The offense will be centered around wide receivers Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins as long as Joe Burrow remains healthy. With those two and rookie Jermaine Burton, that plan of attack calls for a lot of 11 personnel formations. The Bengals dialed up the second-most run plays from the shotgun in 11 personnel, a formation where Moss thrived. Granted, the Indianapolis offensive line is significantly better than Cincinnati's unit.

Brown will enter the game as a true change of pace to Moss' plodding style. Brown recorded the second-fastest in-game speed (over 22 miles per hour) and dominated advanced receiving metrics (4.46 yards per route run). However, he only registered 58 touches in his 12 appearances last season. The volume will need to increase to warrant a roster spot for Brown.

Depending on your belief of how the backfield touches will be split, both running backs can be viewed as value draft-day selections. If Moss takes the bulk of the touches and nears double-digit rushing touchdowns like Mixon, then he'll be a staple in non-PPR starting lineups. A 50-target season, combined with some opportunities on the ground, would make Brown a valuable PPR asset, thus beating his triple-digit ADP. Drafting both to guarantee you're rostering the top running back on one of the best offenses in football isn't a bad strategy.

Players to Avoid - None

Tee Higgins carries injury concerns into the new season. He hasn't played a full season in his first four years in the league (and that doesn't include the handful of games where he played just a handful of snaps before exiting). He's been mostly unplayable without Joe Burrow, who is returning from a torn ligament in his throwing wrist.

For seemingly the first time, however, these concerns are being factored into his ADP. In prior years, despite his highest finish of WR18, Higgins was selected in the third round of redraft formats. Essentially, he was being drafted as his ceiling. That's not the case this offseason. Fantasy managers will be able to find Higgins in the back half of the fourth round, a more reasonable landing spot if managers want to take on the injury risk.

The 25-year-old is currently set to play the season on a one-year franchise tag. If he hopes to find a long-term payday next offseason, he'll need to prove that he can stay healthy and post the remarkable numbers that fantasy football players have longed for.

Cleveland Browns

Players to Target - Amari Cooper

Now entering his 10th NFL season, Amari Cooper doesn’t excite the fantasy community like he did in his early days in Oakland and Dallas. But don’t sleep on his fantasy potential because he’s not the new, up-and-coming hotness.

Cooper’s 2023 season is remembered for his late-season explosion with the help of Joe Flacco, particularly the 11-catch, 265-yard, two-touchdown absurdity against Houston in Week 16. He propelled fantasy managers to their championship game before a heel injury cost him the final two games of the regular season.

That was with Flacco. Deshaun Watson, who struggled in his five full starts, returns to the starting lineup in 2024. He averaged 18.34 fantasy points per game in those games. That landed him 15th among quarterbacks. He did, however, support Cooper as a WR1. In those games they saw the field together, Cooper averaged a hair over eight targets, 5.6 receptions, and 94.2 yards per game. He only scored once in that time frame, but the Browns did opt to throw more in the red zone with Watson versus other quarterbacks.

Cleveland Browns (2022-23)

Watson at QB
- 59% red zone pass rate
- 67% of total TDs via passing TDs

Not Watson
- 47% red zone pass rate
- 46% of total TDs via passing TDs

— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) June 29, 2024

Cooper is the 25th wide receiver coming off the board, in the middle of the fourth round. Being able to snag Cooper as a WR2/3 is an outstanding value, especially for a player who would have been the WR6 in fantasy points per game with Watson.

Players to Avoid - Jerome Ford

Last season, the Browns entered the season with a depth chart of Nick Chubb, Jerome Ford, and Pierre Strong Jr. Chubb suffered a gruesome injury (torn MCL, damaged ACL) in Week 2. Ford took over lead-back duties with the re-signed Kareem Hunt heavily mixing in. Ford finished as the RB16 in PPR formats with 12.4 points per game.

The backfield won’t be as cut and dry in 2024. Fantasy managers need to keep track of Chubb’s recovery process. Initially believed to be an injury that would keep him out into the new season, Kevin Stefanski noted that the star running back is making good progress. He’s running full speed in a straight line and is working on cutting laterally. There’s a realistic shot that he’s active for Week 1. If that’s the case, he won’t have a regular Chubb workload of seasons past. Ford will have a role, as will free-agent addition D'Onta Foreman.

Foreman has been reliable in spot starts in his last three cities: Tennessee, Carolina, and Chicago. But he's been unable to stick with a team and his efficiency numbers don't jump off the page. Unfortunately, neither did Ford's in his starts a year ago, despite operating as an RB2 for fantasy managers.

Ford was serviceable due to plentiful opportunities (23rd in carries, 14th in targets). If Chubb is healthy and/or Foreman takes a bigger share of the touches than his predecessor Hunt, Ford won't be the same running back as last year. Those scenarios are already baked into his ADP.

Pittsburgh Steelers

Players to Target - George Pickens

With a mini-breakout in 2023, it's clear that the Steelers found another wide receiver gem in George Pickens. Now, it's time to see if he can transform into a true game-breaking wide receiver. On paper, he's being set up for that opportunity.

Diontae Johnson was traded to Carolina in the offseason, leaving Pickens as the undisputed top option in the passing game. The Steelers drafted third-round rookie Roman Wilson to be Johnson's replacement. Calvin Austin III, Van Jefferson, and Quez Watkins round out the depth chart. Pickens could be the only wideout to demand targets every week. He averaged over eight targets a game when Johnson was inactive last season.

Fantasy managers have a right to be skeptical about a Pittsburgh offense led by new offensive coordinator Arthur Smith. The Steelers finished fifth in run percentage last season with the Falcons (Smith’s ex-team) one spot behind them. It was a similar story when Smith was leading the Tennessee offense. Still, A.J. Brown and Drake London earned a greater than 25% target share on those offenses (Brown in 2020, London's average in 2022 and 2023).

Pickens didn't post a strong catch rate (59.4%) but we can easily point out why. Kenny Pickett completed just 62% of his pass attempts and Pickens ran a lot of low-success routes. The former Georgia Bulldog averaged 1.5 deep targets per game (26 total, 10th in the NFL) with an average target distance of 13.5 yards. He led the league in yards per reception (18.1). Big plays are a large part of Pickens' game.

Still wondering how George Pickens makes these catches look normal 😮 pic.twitter.com/Th2HwwKQUX

— NFL (@NFL) June 4, 2024

With a boosted target share and a scheme that could place the football in his hands more often (he's pushing to line up in the slot), the path to Pickens being a WR1 for fantasy football is clear. He just needs Russell Wilson to execute the plan and target one of the most athletic wide receivers in football in between running plays.

Players to Avoid - Russell Wilson

There’s no debate that Russell Wilson is an upgrade over Pickett, but that doesn’t mean fantasy success is in his future.

Wilson’s 2023 campaign will be remembered by his late-season benching and subsequent release by the Denver Broncos. Before that, however, Wilson had somewhat of a career resurgence. With a much-improved touchdown rate from 2022, Wilson was the QB9 for fantasy football before the end of his Broncos tenure.

A lot is working against Wilson in black and yellow. For starters, head coach Mike Tomlin and Arthur Smith tend to prefer a rushing offensive attack. Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren are both highly capable running backs and will get their fair share (if not more) of carries.

The wide receiver room is underwhelming on paper. Pickens is due for a breakout season. After that, the depth chart is littered with unproven names. Tight end Pat Freiermuth may end up being the runner-up in the target department.

Because of his track record, name recognition, and change of scenery, Wilson will be an intriguing name for fantasy football managers, especially those who ignore offseason content. His ADP is deep into the QB2 range and he should not be selected in single-quarterback formats.

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