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Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver Rashee Rice had a promising rookie campaign last year. The young wideout gained steam as the season progressed, and he finished as a key contributor to Kansas City's run to a Super Bowl victory.
However, a lot has transpired since February. Between multiple relevant roster moves and a series of legal concerns, Rice's outlook entering his sophomore season is incredibly hazy. With so many variables to consider, it will be important to explore all sides of the equation when assessing Rice's fantasy value.
This article will dive into the issue by first analyzing the cases for and against drafting Rice in 2024. It will then conclude with an evaluation of where one should feel comfortable taking Rice in fantasy drafts. Let's get started!
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The Case for Rashee Rice in 2024 Fantasy Football
The obvious point to begin with is that Rice was quite productive as a rookie a season ago. The SMU product caught 79 of 102 targets for 938 yards and a team-leading seven receiving touchdowns. His catch, target, and yardage totals ranked second on the team, behind just star tight end Travis Kelce. By averaging 13.3 PPR points per game, Rice was the league's WR28 on a per-game basis. He has already demonstrated his ability to be a quality fantasy option.
Further boosting Rice's prospects is the fact that he closed the season on an excellent stretch. From Week 12 onward, Rice averaged 18.5 PPR points per game; this was the eighth-highest average over that span among WRs with at least three outings. His best showing of the year actually came in the Wild Card round, when he caught eight passes for 130 yards and a touchdown against Miami. The 130 yards marked the highest such total for a rookie in Kansas City postseason history.
Opening drive touchdown for Rashee Rice and the Chiefs!#MIAvsKC on Peacock
Also available on #NFLPlus https://t.co/bTakd7vjlv pic.twitter.com/VwS7YRk2Yg— NFL (@NFL) January 14, 2024
Rice's season can hardly be boiled down to these figures, though. He was quite efficient as well; Rice averaged 0.57 fantasy points per route run, making him the WR7 in that regard. He was also 16th in fantasy points per target. Rice's average of 2.52 yards per route run notably placed him at 10th at his position. Impressively, Rice was also third among receivers with 654 yards after the catch. His stat sheet was full of encouraging numbers.
Additionally, superstar quarterback Patrick Mahomes will be passing to Rice once again. The pair forged a strong rapport in 2023, as Rice's QB rating per target of 123.7 ranked fifth among all receivers. Rice's target accuracy was also the second-highest among wideouts. While some of these figures can be attributed to his role (Rice had an aDOT of just 4.8 yards), it is also clear that he is on the right team to find fantasy success again.
With a strong stat line, quality efficiency, an unmatched quarterback, and an elite coaching staff led by head coach Andy Reid, there is a lot to like about Rice's outlook for the 2024 season However, it is important to look at both the potential and already-existing issues for players as well. In Rice's case, there are a lot of red flags; the next section will explore these to give a fuller picture.
The Case Against Rashee Rice in 2024 Fantasy Football
Rice caught six passes in the Super Bowl in February, helping the Chiefs defeat the 49ers in overtime. Unfortunately, since that date, there has been a slew of bad news surrounding him. In March, the Chiefs signed former Arizona wide receiver Marquise Brown in free agency. Brown had a disappointing 2023 season, but he remains a dynamic option and will have a chance to rejuvenate his career with Mahomes in Kansas City. Brown will be more competent than Rice's main target competition at WR last season.
Then, on March 30, Rice was alleged to have been involved in a high-speed hit-and-run crash in Texas. An arrest warrant was soon issued for him; Rice was charged with eight felonies. While he accepted responsibility for the incident and apologized for his misconduct, the legal process is ongoing. Moreover, a multi-game suspension from the NFL is also potentially looming, which would obviously limit Rice's fantasy value for the season.
In the first round of the NFL Draft on April 25, the Chiefs selected former Texas Longhorn Xavier Worthy. Worthy is a receiver whose speed is unmatched; he set a new Scouting Combine record with a 4.21-second 40-yard dash. The Chiefs suffered from a lack of consistency at WR a year ago, so this addition helps address that. However, it is also surely to give the team another weapon should Rice be unavailable for an extended period.
Sadly, the March car crash was not the only thing that landed Rice in hot water this offseason. In early May, it was reported that he was under investigation for an alleged assault against a photographer at a Dallas nightclub. While Rice was never arrested and the victim declined to press charges, the reports have naturally led to concerns regarding Rice's judgment and maturity. Exacerbating this effect were rumors that he was involved in another incident at SMU.
Multiple teams learned before the NFL Draft that WR Rashee Rice was allegedly involved in an incident at SMU.
Rice (or someone with him), fired multiple bullets into an empty car belonging to Kendric Davis after attending an SMU basketball game with friends, per @ProFootballTalk pic.twitter.com/NnAnUGf8W7
— SleeperNFL (@SleeperNFL) May 10, 2024
Finally, Rice did contribute to Kansas City's receiving woes to an extent last year. He dropped eight passes; the only wideout with more drops on fewer targets was Seattle's Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Moreover, Rice caught just two of eight contested targets. With this in mind, plus his lack of utilization as a deep threat (just five deep targets for the whole year), there is a risk that the team's new additions could gobble up more of Rice's target share than expected.
Where Should You Draft Rashee Rice in Fantasy Football?
Rice's ADP over the past month has been as the WR36. This puts him above Chris Godwin (WR37) and Diontae Johnson (WR38), and it slots him just below Jayden Reed (WR34) and his teammate Marquise Brown (WR35). While this price certainly factors in the uncertainty about his availability for the beginning of the season, it does not seem low enough. A multi-game suspension feels likely, and at this point, it is too much of a risk to take him above the aforementioned names.
.@AdamSchefter shares the latest update on Rashee Rice and his potential suspension from the NFL. pic.twitter.com/J6jmlKbkSe
— NFL on ESPN (@ESPNNFL) May 13, 2024
Also interesting is the fact he is being drafted just behind Brown, on average. This is misguided; there should be a larger gap between the two of them. Brown has reportedly been building a nice chemistry with Mahomes in offseason workouts, which would be very relevant should Rice miss time. It is easy to envision Brown (or Worthy) having a strong start to the season and not relinquishing the team's WR1 role when Rice returns from a hypothetical suspension. Even if Rice is available, Brown will inject needed talent into the receiving room and be a major factor.
Personally, I would not take Rice until about the WR45 area in the draft, with a slight downgrade for non-PPR leagues. The added competition for targets, the legal troubles, and the fact that tight end Travis Kelce is set to be Mahomes's top target again all make it difficult to select Rice at ADP. Brown and Godwin would be two preferred options in the same range, with Godwin in particular being more enticing.
Among other second-year players, both Reed and Jordan Addison would also be better choices than Rice. While both have concerns of their own, they pale in comparison to Rice's issues. Reed has to contend with a fair amount of target competition himself, but the positive momentum he gained in the second half of 2023 has not met such disruptions. Addison faces a new quarterback situation, but he is still Minnesota's clear second option and is also simply a more talented player than Rice.
To be clear, Rice still has more upside than most of the other players in his draft range. If he avoids a long suspension and can assert himself as Mahomes's clear number-one wideout, the concerns being expressed here will look foolish in hindsight. For fantasy managers who are willing to make a gamble, Rice can still be a viable option at his current ADP. Monitoring any further developments as the season approaches will be crucial.
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