RADIO
The fantasy season is close to ending. If you’re reading this article, you were likely able to navigate a slew of injuries and underwhelming performances from typically consistent fantasy players. Or, you earned a bye during the regular week.
Aiming for upside is crucial at this point in the season. Only two games are between fantasy managers and a league championship (in most leagues). Fantasy managers need to be willing to pull out all the stops.
Fantasy managers should pay attention to offensive and defensive line matchups to tap into their team’s upside. Below you’ll find the matchups to target and avoid in Week 16.
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Champ of the Week
Denver Broncos
Denver’s offensive line quietly became a top-3 unit in the NFL in 2024. It was able to move one step closer to a playoff berth in Week 15 thanks to another stellar outing from the group up front.
Courtland Sutton with the dirty stutter-go TD. pic.twitter.com/nZJugwgQm5
— Frankie Abbott (@FrankiesFilm) December 16, 2024
The Broncos allowed just one sack and three pressures against Indianapolis’ defense in Week 15. All five of Denver’s starting offensive linemen finished with a PFF pass-blocking grade above 72.0. Four of its five starters finished with a run-blocking grade above 68.0 and a PFF grade above 70.0.
The lone weak link of this unit is inexperienced center Luke Wattenberg. The 2022 fifth-round pick ranks outside the top 30 centers in terms of PFF grade this season (60.0) but is a top-3 center in pass protection (79.7). It shouldn’t be surprising that Denver is so much better at passing the ball than it is on the ground based on that.
Denver is close to securing a playoff spot in Bo Nix’s rookie season. A large part of that can be attributed to its excellent play along the offensive line.
Chump of the Week
Miami Dolphins
Miami entered Week 15 without both of its starting tackles (and key depth tackle Kendall Lamm). Given Tua Tagovailoa’s struggles under pressure, it isn’t surprising the team was defeated soundly by the Houston Texans.
Jesus, look at this rep yesterday from Miami #Dolphins RT Jackson Carman, who filled in for Kendall Lamm: pic.twitter.com/t1uaimBK5X
— Brandon Liguori (@BrandonRLiguori) December 16, 2024
Miami’s offensive line was credited with just one sack and 11 pressures in the game, but the impacts of the pressure were felt in the pocket. Miami’s offensive line finished with an average pass-blocking grade of 52.3, a run-blocking grade of 43.0, and an overall PFF grade of 44.3.
The Dolphins were no match for Houston’s varied pass-rushers across the defensive line. Six different defensive linemen logged at least two pressures. Two of its sacks came from edge-rushers Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson Jr.
Miami’s playoff chances took a significant hit in Week 15. It is hard to imagine the team can rebound if its two top offensive linemen (Terron Armstead and Austin Jackson) are going to be out going forward.
Week 16 Matchups to Target
Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers
Arizona’s offensive line has found stability thanks to the return of Jonah Williams. Over the last four games, Williams is averaging a 66.5 PFF grade and has allowed just six pressures on 200 dropbacks. He has formed an excellent pairing with second-year left tackle Paris Johnson Jr. (80.8 PFF grade).
James Conner will go for this 3rd straight 20+ fantasy point game in Week 16 pic.twitter.com/h2V0exswDP
— Josh Norris (@JoshNorris) December 17, 2024
The Cardinals front wasn’t tested much against the Patriots in Week 15 (three pressures allowed). They face a similar situation in Week 16.
Carolina’s defensive front has generated just 155 pressures and 27 sacks this season. Jadeveon Clowney (31 pressures and four sacks) is the only player with more than 21 pressures. He’s also the only defensive lineman with a run defense grade above 59.0.
Arizona is still barely alive in the NFC playoff race and its offense should lead the way again in Week 16. Kyler Murray should have ample time to find his weapons downfield and James Conner is poised to have another big week against Carolina.
Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots
A lot of the credit for Buffalo’s strong play rightfully falls on Josh Allen. The veteran quarterback has thrown for 704 yards and five touchdowns in his last two games. He’s also added 21 carries for 150 yards and five rushing touchdowns. More importantly, he hasn’t taken a sack during that stretch.
Josh Allen is moving at 16 MPH when he threw this, per @NextGenStats. While running left. Absurd stuff. pic.twitter.com/UbADeHQPoZ
— Nate Tice (@Nate_Tice) December 17, 2024
Buffalo hasn’t allowed a sack in three games total, giving Allen a clean pocket to decimate defenses from. That isn’t great news for a Patriots defensive line that doesn’t generate consistent pressure.
Keion White (42 pressures and six sacks) has taken a considerable step this season, but he’s essentially operating as a one-man game-breaker. Only one other player on the Patriots has more than 15 pressures (Anfernee Jennings). Jennings and Deatrich Wise Jr. are the only players with more than two sacks.
Buffalo has a clear advantage up front and should continue its strong offensive play in this matchup.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Las Vegas Raiders
Jacksonville’s offensive struggles have been well-documented this season. However, its offensive line has quietly operated as a top-12 unit for most of this season.
All five of Jacksonville’s starters have a pass-blocking grade above 62.0, a run-blocking grade above 55.0, and a PFF grade above 58.0. Only one player (right tackle Anton Harrison) has allowed more than 17 pressures. Their play has helped Mac Jones find some level of success under center in recent weeks.
Brian Thomas Jr. already 5-year vet smooth…
pic.twitter.com/BkRdUyQ1kI— Tipp Major (@tippmajor) December 15, 2024
The Jaguars won’t be pushed very much against a Raiders defense that will be missing its top two playmakers on the defensive line (Maxx Crosby and Christian Wilkins). The Raiders still have three players with four or more sacks (Adam Butler, Tyree Wilson, K’Lavon Chaisson), but nobody with more than 26 pressures.
Jacksonville’s run game may struggle against Las Vegas, but Mac Jones should have plenty of time to attack downfield with Brian Thomas Jr.
Week 16 Matchups to Avoid
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Houston Texans
Desperation has forced the Chiefs to move left guard Joe Thuney to left tackle. The results weren’t great in Week 15. Thuney allowed 10 pressures and finished with a 53.6 PFF grade in his first game at left tackle. It didn’t help that he drew a matchup against Myles Garrett and the Cleveland Browns.
#Browns EDGE Myles Garrett this season:
- 93.0 pass-rush grade (1st in NFL)
- 70 total pressures (1st)
- win percentage of 24.4% (1st)*Career-high 12 pressures vs KC in Week 15
Best pass-rusher in the NFL🥇#DawgPound pic.twitter.com/xaKnHeF1g1
— Ryan Smith (@PFF_RyanSmith) December 17, 2024
Moving Thuney to left tackle also weakened the interior, leading to a day where Patrick Mahomes was hit twice with 15 total pressures. Unfortunately, the Chiefs won’t have a much easier time against Houston’s defense in Week 16.
The Texans defense is led by Danielle Hunter (58 pressures and 12 sacks) and Will Anderson Jr. (46 pressures and 11 sacks), but this group has plenty of depth. Eight different players have at least 10 pressures this season and six other defensive linemen have three sacks.
Houston is capable of attacking the Chiefs’ ambiguous left side of the offensive line, which isn’t ideal with a hobbled Mahomes under center (if he even plays). This could be another frustrating game for the Chiefs offense.
Miami Dolphins vs. San Francisco 49ers
Miami’s issues without its tackles were well-documented in the “chumps of the week” above. Unfortunately, its inexperienced tackle tandem of rookie Patrick Paul and Jackson Carman will be tested once again in a matchup against the 49ers.
Leonard Floyd maintains the heel line as he takes the air out of his gap. Floyd plays the puller with his hands & makes the tackle! #StopTheRun #49ers pic.twitter.com/nodZ1RFs1Z
— DLineVids (@dlinevids1) December 13, 2024
San Francisco has three players with 40 or more pressures this season, led by Nick Bosa (58). It also has six players with at least three sacks on the year, led by Leonard Floyd (11.0). San Francisco can be exploited in the run game, but Miami has all but abandoned that in favor of quick horizontal passes to its weapons.
Miami will need to do everything to keep Tua upright if it wants to continue to compete for a playoff spot in Week 16.
New Orleans Saints at Green Bay Packers
The Saints offensive line is completely intact, but they still have some significant issues up front, especially in pass protection. Both Trevor Penning (four sacks and 35 pressures on 529 pass-protection snaps) and rookie Taliese Fuaga (five sacks and 31 pressures on 523 pass-protection snaps) have struggled.
They’ll face another difficult challenge in the form of Green Bay’s varied pass-rush attack.
Rashan Gary with 4.5 sacks in his last 6 games… finally heating up after a slow start in the new scheme
pic.twitter.com/L3627j0Fdy— Hogg (@HoggNFL) December 16, 2024
Nine different players have generated at least 10 pressures. Four players have at least 20 pressures. Collectively, Green Bay has generated 230 pressures and 45 sacks as a team.
The Packers defense isn’t the most dominant unit, but it can make life on any quarterback difficult. The Saints offense is in trouble, especially with rookie Spencer Rattler under center.
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