RADIO
Congratulations, fantasy managers—you’ve made it to the semifinals. In the playoffs, the last thing you need is a dud in your lineup, and Week 16 is where champions are separated from the pretenders. The blood, sweat, waiver claims, and lineup tinkering have paid off, and now you’re just one win away from the finals.
This is the big leagues, folks. No more bye weeks. No excuses. Your roster is fully loaded, and every decision matters. While having options is great, it’s also a double-edged sword. Bench the wrong guy, and you’ll spend the offseason cursing that one lineup decision that cost you everything.
So today, we’re talking about landmines: players you’d normally trust but who, for one reason or another, are poised to underdeliver in Week 16. With brutal matchups and troubling trends, these players are likelier to hurt your lineup than help it. Let’s get into it.
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C.J. Stroud, QB, vs. Kansas City Chiefs
After a stellar rookie season, C.J. Stroud entered 2024 with sky-high expectations, but fantasy managers have had a rough ride. His 16.62 fantasy points per game rank him as the QB23, a far cry from his QB12 finish in 2023. While his 3248 passing yards and 17 touchdowns are respectable, they’re overshadowed by inconsistency and a brutal matchup this week.
The Chiefs' defense is a quarterback’s worst nightmare. Over the last four weeks, they’ve allowed a league-best 12.75 fantasy points per game to opposing QBs. They’ve surrendered just 18 passing touchdowns all season, and their secondary has been a turnover machine, with a knack for erasing big plays.
Stroud’s performance against Miami in Week 15—a mere 131 passing yards and two touchdowns—did little to inspire confidence. Against Kansas City, don’t expect fireworks. If you’ve got a safer option, now’s the time to use it.
This is one of those, why didn't Stroud let it rip moments?
Schultz, Tank, either one. pic.twitter.com/tI5cxQmsqy
— Jeremy Branham (@JeremyBranham) December 18, 2024
Brian Robinson Jr., RB, vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Brian Robinson Jr. has been a steady RB2 all season, racking up 705 rushing yards and eight touchdowns on a solid 4.4 yards per carry. But “steady” won’t cut it against the Philadelphia Eagles. Last week, Robinson put up 10.2 points against the Saints with 87 total yards and no touchdowns. That’s fine for a low-stakes matchup, but the Eagles defense isn’t playing around.
Philadelphia ranks third in fantasy points allowed to running backs over the last month and leads the league in overall defense, surrendering just 275.6 yards per game. They’ve allowed a mere nine rushing touchdowns all season, and their front seven is a brick wall.
Robinson’s limited role in the passing game (15 receptions all year) further limits his ceiling. Expect the Eagles to bottle him up, leaving you wishing you’d gone with a more dynamic back in your semifinal matchup.
Calvin Ridley, WR, vs. Indianapolis Colts
The Calvin Ridley breakout season that fantasy managers dreamed of after a big free agent signing? Yeah, that never really materialized. Ridley has just 771 yards and three touchdowns through 14 games, with a 21.4% target share that hasn’t translated to consistent production. He hasn’t topped 100 yards since Week 7 and hasn’t scored in over a month. Yikes.
Now he faces the Indianapolis Colts, who have quietly become strong against wide receivers. Over the last four weeks, they rank second in fantasy points allowed to the position. On the season, they’ve given up just 20 passing touchdowns in 14 games, making life miserable for opposing pass-catchers.
The Colts are not strong at the QB position, which means Ridley’s target share isn’t guaranteed to rise, especially in a low-scoring affair. If you’re counting on Ridley to lead you to glory, you might want to rethink your strategy.
Did you accidentally drink something poisonous and need to vomit it up quickly? Consider watching all 8 of Calvin Ridley's "targets" in yesterday's game. This is not football. pic.twitter.com/bKbFyxJOWm
— Andy Holloway (@andyholloway) October 14, 2024
Pat Freiermuth, TE, vs. Baltimore Ravens
Pat Freiermuth has been on a tear recently, scoring touchdowns in three straight games. But don’t let the streak blind you to the risk he carries this week. The Ravens' defense has recently been stingy against tight ends, ranking seventh in fantasy points allowed to the position over the past four weeks.
That spells trouble for Freiermuth, who averages a modest four targets per game. He hasn’t cracked 70 receiving yards in any contest this season, which means his fantasy value is almost entirely touchdown-dependent.
Betting on a fourth straight trip to the end zone against a defense this good feels more like wishful thinking than sound strategy. You’d be better off pivoting to a tight end with a higher yardage floor.
Jerry Jeudy, Flex, vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Jerry Jeudy has been a revelation over the past few weeks, finally delivering on the promise that made him a popular mid-round pick. With 36 points in Week 13 and respectable outputs of 14.9 and 16.3 in Weeks 14 and 15, Jeudy has been a reliable flex option. But there’s one major problem: Jameis Winston isn’t throwing him the ball anymore.
Enter Dorian Thompson-Robinson, who doesn’t bring the same aggressive downfield passing that made Jeudy fantasy-relevant. Without Winston’s YOLO throws, Jeudy’s ceiling takes a hit.
While Cincinnati’s defense has been poor overall this season, they’ve been rock-solid against wide receivers recently, ranking eighth in fewest fantasy points allowed over the past month. They’ve allowed just 14 passing touchdowns all year, and their secondary has tightened.
Jeudy’s floor is lower than you’d like in a must-win game, especially with uncertainty at quarterback. If you’re debating between Jeudy and a safer option, don’t overthink it—leave Jeudy on the bench.
Career highs for Jerry Jeudy:
🔥 70 catches
🔥 1,052 yardsThere's still three games left...
📺 NFL on Game Pass on DAZN | via @Browns pic.twitter.com/QS3YNLmtr4
— NFL on DAZN (@NFLonDAZN) December 17, 2024
Final Thoughts
The semifinals are where fantasy football legends are made, but they’re also where dreams come crashing down. Every start/sit decision could be the difference between advancing to the finals or lamenting what might have been.
Stroud, Robinson, Ridley, Freiermuth, and Jeudy are all talented players, but this week, the deck is stacked against them. Between brutal matchups, tough defenses, and situational concerns, the risk outweighs the reward.
This doesn’t mean you have to bench these players at all costs, but if you’ve got better options, don’t hesitate to use them. Play the matchups, trust the data, and don’t get sentimental about big names. Your path to the championship starts with avoiding landmines. Good luck, and may your Week 16 lineup lead you to glory!
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