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The Jacksonville Jaguars had a dream season in 2022. Following a poor start, they caught fire and managed to win the division when no one expected them to. They even managed to complete a historic comeback against the Chargers in the Wild Card round and even gave the eventual Super Bowl champion Chiefs a scare in the Divisional Round.
The Jaguars' improved play was mostly attributed to the improvement of Trevor Lawrence, who threw for 2,273 yards, 15 touchdowns, and just two interceptions over his last nine games of that campaign. Many expected him to be in MVP conversations in 2023, but he regressed and the Jaguars failed to make the playoffs despite starting the season with an 8-3 record. Now, many dynasty managers are starting to doubt him, and he's motivated to bounce back and finally take that leap to superstardom.
Should you be buying, selling, or holding Lawrence this offseason? Let's dive in.
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Trevor Lawrence 2023 Season Review
As stated in the introduction, Jacksonville's AFC South title defense was going pretty well. By Week 12, they were 8-3 and no other team in the division had won more than six games.
However, Lawrence didn't have the individual production that many had expected from him. 12 touchdowns and seven interceptions in his first 11 games was far from ideal, but his team was winning, so apart from his fantasy managers, no one was really complaining.
- Attempts the hardest throws
- Turnover problem
- Plays through whatever injury he hasTrevor Lawrence is the closest thing to a 2000s QB we have https://t.co/ZKzMHtCvEH
— Sid (@SidwardSports) January 6, 2024
But everything changed after that week. Lawrence got more aggressive (nine touchdowns to seven interceptions in his next five games) but went winless. As a result, the Jaguars missed the playoffs just one year after putting up a valiant effort against the reigning champions in the playoffs. But we have to realize that Lawrence dealt with injuries throughout the entire season, so putting all the blame on him would be unfair.
Lawrence sprained his ankle in a Week 13 overtime loss to the Bengals, and the Jaguars would have made the playoffs had they won that game. Lawrence would fight through the pain and played until suffering a shoulder injury in Week 16 against the Buccaneers, which caused him to miss a game.
In all, the former No. 1 overall pick dealt with four separate injuries during the campaign, and it's obvious that his production would look completely different if he was healthy.
What is Trevor Lawrence Worth in Fantasy Football Dynasty Leagues?
According to KeepTradeCut.com's crowdsourced rankings, Lawrence is being valued as the dynasty QB12. He's placed just behind Kyler Murray and Jordan Love, and just ahead of Brock Purdy and Jayden Daniels. Considering the disappointment of his 2023 season, this is a fair evaluation. But considering some of the names ahead of him, Lawrence will have to have an outstanding season if he wants to crack into the top seven.
Trevor Lawrence has 2 more 4000 yard passing seasons than any Bears QB in NFL history https://t.co/VrYvUva1jS
— Akash (@YZR_Fantasy) March 27, 2024
Currently, we're seeing some fantasy managers trade Lawrence along with picks and/or star players for surefire QBs like Patrick Mahomes. While there's no doubt that Lawrence will probably never be as good as Mahomes is right now, they'd be better off if they took a chance on Lawrence and kept their other star players and/or picks.
Lawrence only averaged 1.1 fewer fantasy points than Mahomes last season, and even though this was a down year for Mahomes, the other star player (like Deebo Samuel) could easily make up the difference between Mahomes and Lawrence.
Trevor Lawrence 2024 Fantasy Football Outlook
The Jaguars have had a good offseason so far. Losing Calvin Ridley to the rival Titans hurt, but the much younger Gabe Davis replaced him. Davis is an explosive WR who has led the entire NFL in yards per reception (16.7) ever since he got drafted in 2020 (among all players with 150+ catches).
Davis does have some issues with drops, but when he catches the ball, he makes it count. The WR generates a first down or touchdown on 77% of his catches.
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┃┃╱╲ In this
┃╱╱╲╲ house
╱╱╭╮╲╲ we love
▔▏┗┛▕▔ & appreciate
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Trevor Lawrence
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▔▏┗┻┛┃┃┗┻┛▕▔ pic.twitter.com/nCTMwceER9— Jacksonville Jaguars (@Jaguars) April 9, 2024
Christian Kirk is also still around. Kirk has been an awesome slot receiver so far, but he will be more motivated than ever now that he has more opportunities with Ridley gone.
The Jags also added Bills center Mitch Morse, who is a very solid and serviceable lineman who should give Lawrence more time to throw. They've also re-signed more players on the offensive line and many players on their defense, which gives Lawrence a higher margin for error.
But the biggest additions to the 2024 Jaguars should come in the 2024 NFL Draft. The Jags are one of the biggest candidates to trade up from their 17th overall pick, and they can add yet another weapon for Lawrence with a smart choice on draft night.
Drafting a player like BrIan Thomas Jr. would instantly create a frightening receiving trio in Jacksonville alongside 2023 Pro Bowler Evan Engram and Travis Etienne, who racked up 476 receiving yards last season.
If you have built your dynasty squad around Lawrence, keeping him would be a wise move, as he'll be surrounded by weapons on offense. The 2024 AFC South division won't be easy, but Lawrence and the Jags are more than ready for the challenge.
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