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The NFL Draft has not taken place and training camp is several months away, but it is never too early for fantasy football managers to prepare for the upcoming season, especially if they participate in dynasty leagues.
While the offseason means taking a break from football and concentrating on other fantasy sports like baseball, hockey, and hoops, many fantasy footballers are tracking the status of NFL players so they are really ready to draft when late August and early September rolls around.
In this article, I will be taking a closer look at Green Bay Packers tight end Luke Musgrave. He was a dynasty darling early last year when he looked like a tight end with a solid fantasy future ahead of him. But Musgrave hit a couple roadblocks during his rookie season that caused his fantasy value to nosedive and makes him more of a question mark heading into 2024. Here is a look at Musgrave’s dynasty outlook:
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Luke Musgrave’s Rookie Season Review
Musgrave started off strong during his rookie campaign, catching 22 passes for 189 yards over his first half-dozen outings. He established himself as QB Jordan Love’s safety valve option and was playing himself into the role as one of Green Bay’s main options since the young, inexperienced wide receiver corps was still figuring out how to run routes and find chemistry with Love. Forget about Musgrave being the top tight end on the team. He was shaping up to be one of the top targets on the team.
But a terrible thing happened while Musgrave was on his way to be the next Mark Chmura. He had his kidney lacerated in November and missed almost two months of action. He was subsequently dropped in many fantasy formats, especially when rookie tight end teammate Tucker Kraft stepped in and was a super sub, posting numbers that rivaled Musgrave’s.
Musgrave did return in time for Green Bay’s improbable playoff run and provided six catches for 66 yards and a touchdown for playoff fantasy managers who had him rostered. The problem was that he shared his time and targets with Kraft, which did neither of them fantasy favors.
Luke Musgrave’s Fantasy Football Outlook
Musgrave is only 23 years old and has his best years ahead of him. His first season was shortened due to his major injury, so he still has plenty of learning to do and fantasy growth to experience. Green Bay selected him in the second round of the 2023 draft because the Packers believed he was their tight end of the future, and he remains the odds-on favorite to be Love’s No. 1 TE in 2024 and beyond.
But Kraft is entering his second season and has pass-catching potential, too. His numbers were virtually identical to Musgrave’s in 2023, although Kraft dressed for six more games since he was injury-free. While Musgrave was drafted in the second round, Kraft was taken just a round later, so it is not like the Packers did not think he could be a major factor in the offense as well.
You would prefer if Musgrave’s backup was a veteran blocker who was past his prime. Then, you would know for certain he was the Packers' future tight end and that his snap count and target total would escalate in the coming years. The fact that his understudy is just as young as he is definitely does not help Musgrave’s long-term fantasy worth.
What is Luke Musgrave Worth in Fantasy Football?
Musgrave is shaping up to be a TE2 out of the gate since it is not certain he is even the top tight end on his own team. He is the favorite to have that role again, but Kraft’s impressive play down the stretch last year will likely afford him a decent amount of playing time and looks from Love, which would come at Musgrave’s expense.
Green Bay’s young receivers really came into their own during the final month of the regular season and the postseason. With Romeo Doubs getting better, Christian Watson getting healthier, and the rest of the receivers ready to take their talents to the next level, targets will not be as easy to come by for Musgrave as they are for top-flight tight ends like Kansas City’s Travis Kelce and Baltimore’s Mark Andrews. Those Pro Bowlers are on teams where the receivers are suspect (unless upgraded this offseason).
Jordan Love
Aaron Jones
Josh Jacobs
Jayden Reed
Dontayvion Wicks
Christian Watson
Romeo Doubs
Luke Musgrave
Tucker Kraft
Matt LaFleurEsse ataque tem MUITO potencial em 2024. pic.twitter.com/GlkXFCicrl
— Packers Nation Br (@packersnationbr) March 11, 2024
Drafting Musgrave and having him as your backup tight end for this season, possibly as your cornerstone tight end for future seasons, is not the worst game plan. His fantasy value has all the upward mobility in the world. Love has grown by leaps and bounds as a passer in a short amount of time and is going to elevate the fantasy values of those he throws to.
Love and Musgrave had a good thing going early in the 2023 season when Love’s play was spotty, so Musgrave’s numbers should improve with Love on the verge of cementing his status as a franchise quarterback.
Musgrave cannot be considered a top-12 fantasy tight end at the moment due to the uncertainty regarding his role in the offense, but if you can draft him in a reasonable round or buy him as a decent auction price, he has all the tools and talent to become a TE1 during the course of the season. Musgrave comes with risk, but the rewards in a dynasty league could be great -- as long as you do not bet the farm on him.
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