Fantasy Football Draft Targets and Avoids - AFC/NFC South

The 2024 season is nearly upon us. We have seen plenty of player movement throughout free agency and the draft and have seen some of the rookies play with their new NFL teams through OTAs (granted, in shorts and helmets).

Fantasy football managers will soon need to start preparing for their upcoming fantasy drafts, identifying the players that are values and avoids in each round. But a useful strategy in fantasy is to also recognize the teams that can produce fantasy points to target those players.

Here at RotoBaller, we will be publishing the top players to target and avoid for each team in the NFC and AFC divisions throughout the summer. Check out the AFC and NFC South players to target and avoid by team below.

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Atlanta Falcons

Target: Bijan Robinson

Saying Bijan Robinson is a target in fantasy drafts is pretty much the easy answer given that he’s the only piece of this offense going in the first round in fantasy drafts. We expected big things from Robinson in 2023 and were mostly let down by just 14.5 fantasy points per game in PPR scoring, which tied him for 16th. The biggest problem plaguing Robinson in his first season was the insistence on including Tyler Allgeier as a rusher (204 carries), which drastically lowered Robinson’s ceiling.

Robinson was also hampered by a bad offense that struggled to get the ball into scoring position. Opposing defenses had no reason to fear the pass, so they stacked the box and forced the Falcons to win the hard way. Atlanta’s running backs had just 24 rushing attempts inside the 10-yard line, which were nearly even split between Robinson (11) and Allgeier (10).

The advanced metrics tell us that there is plenty of room for Robinson to ascend in 2024. According to PlayerProfiler, Robinson’s 5.4 yards per touch was ninth in the NFL. His juke rate (23.2%) finished 11th among running backs. He also had 63 evaded tackles, which was seventh overall. He was weaponized as a pass-catcher, finishing third in running back targets (86), fourth in receiving yards (487), and third in target share (17.2%) as a rookie.

A handful of Bijan Robinson plays against the Colts pic.twitter.com/bLORthTPyG

— Nate Tice (@Nate_Tice) June 6, 2024

Atlanta cleaned house this offseason, bringing Zac Robinson in from the Rams to serve as its offensive coordinator. History tells us that the Rams understand and value the role of a bell-cow running back, which should mean far more opportunities for Robinson in 2023. The coaching staff has said as much in interviews throughout the offseason. The quarterback upgrade from Desmond Ridder and friends to Kirk Cousins and/or Michael Penix Jr. means that defenses will no longer be able to stack the box. Allgeier is still on the team, but he should be relegated to a true handcuff instead of operating as a 1B in the backfield.

In today’s NFL, there aren’t many teams that are committed to handing their backfield to one specific player. Everything points to Atlanta being one of those teams in 2024. Robinson is not only worthy of his status as a first-round pick but can finish as the RB1 in fantasy. I have no problem drafting him as soon as Christian McCaffrey, CeeDee Lamb, and Tyreek Hill are off the board.

Avoid: Drake London

Drake London is currently going off the board as the WR10 in fantasy drafts with an ADP of 14.4. His status as a top-10 receiver predraft is somewhat hard to fathom given what we have seen him produce through his first two years in the NFL.

London has finished as the WR42 and WR43 in back-to-back seasons in fantasy, never surpassing 11.0 fantasy points per game in a season. While a lot of this can be chalked up to a bad offensive environment, it isn’t like London has emerged as a metrics darling.

In 2023, he finished outside the top 20 in target share (23.3%, 25th), routes run (473, 38th), air yards (1,249, 24th), average depth of target (11.5, 43rd), deep targets (19, 26th) and red-zone targets (19, 22nd). He also had a 29.8% win rate against man coverage and just a 49.4 win rate against zone coverage. Some of that can be attributed to the poor passing of Desmond Ridder, but some of it is London’s inability to create separation on his routes.

London will certainly see the most volume of his career next season and could hit top-10 status as a wide receiver next season because of it. Just 73.4% of London’s targets were catchable last season and he had a 47.8% contested catch rate. However, his current ADP makes that outcome a likelihood and not just a possibility.

Wishing on the Falcons offense will not all of a sudden transform the unit, so drafting London at his ceiling (and ahead of other certified target-earners) is a gamble that isn’t worth taking in the second round.

Carolina Panthers

Target: Diontae Johnson

The Panthers were plagued with issues in 2023, which led to one of the worst rookie seasons at quarterback ever from first overall pick Bryce Young. Young had to navigate several different offensive play-callers, an offensive line that didn’t prevent pressure (especially from the interior), and a collection of wide receivers who didn’t get separation in their routes. The Panthers addressed each of these issues throughout the offseason.

One player who has emerged as an excellent target on the Panthers offense is veteran wide receiver Diontae Johnson. Johnson was a certified target-earner during his time with the Steelers, finishing with three straight seasons of 140+ targets from 2020 to 2022. The veteran receiver is just two years removed from a top-10 PPR finish (17.2 PPG) and now enters an offense searching for a player to be its top target-earner. Most importantly, Johnson is one of the better separators in the NFL when healthy, giving Young a receiver that he can get the ball to in pressure situations.

Diontae Johnson pic.twitter.com/dXQupPKs37

— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) June 11, 2024

Johnson is the unquestioned top receiver on an offense that we expect to improve in 2024. His 73.5 ADP (WR44) bakes in the risk of the Carolina offense being bad, but accounts for the upside Johnson has with another season of big-target volume heading his way.

Avoid: Bryce Young

It feels impossible for Bryce Young to be worse in his second season after completing just 59.8% of his passes for 2,877 yards and 11 touchdowns with 10 interceptions. Young is currently going off the board as the QB25 in Underdog drafts with an ADP of 190.5.

There are plenty of reasons to be optimistic about Young growing into a better fantasy asset in 2024. The team upgraded the offensive line, added numerous receiving weapons, and hired one of the better offensive-minded coaches in Dave Canales. The issue with drafting Young at the end of drafts is twofold.

For one, there are still reasons to believe Young may not succeed at the NFL level. His rookie year was abysmal and while his team situation was bad, Young struggled to operate from the pocket with accuracy. Young’s build (5-foot-10, 204 pounds) has not been successful historically in the NFL as a pocket passer. Secondly, Young doesn’t offer much rushing ability, which is coveted in fantasy football at the quarterback position.

Even if Young improves in all passing categories, he still would have to score an absurd amount of touchdowns to be a top-12 quarterback. Young may be a “safe” pick in late drafts where he could be a usable QB2, but he lacks the upside of quarterbacks drafted around him on better teams (Will Levis/Geno Smith) or quarterbacks with more mobility (Daniel Jones/Drake Maye). 

New Orleans Saints

Target: Kendre Miller

 2023 rookie Kendre Miller didn’t get many opportunities to show why he was a third-round pick due to injuries. He had just 41 carries for 156 yards with a touchdown and 10 receptions for 117 yards. Miller was stuck behind Alvin Kamara and Jamaal Williams when healthy and only had three games with a 30+% snap share.

Still, there are reasons to be optimistic that Miller can have an expanded, fantasy-relevant role in 2024. Miller had his best game of the year in Week 18 when he was finally healthy, handling 13 carries for 73 yards and a touchdown. Miller posted an extremely strong 2.44 yards per route run in his first season and generated seven missed tackles on his 51 total opportunities.

RB Kendre Miller saw 14 opps in Week 18 vs ATL.

He doesn't turn 22 for another 37 days. And if it helps your brain, include him in this year's rookie RB class after he missed 9 games last year. pic.twitter.com/oaWE0kSnfp

— Kyle Borgognoni (@kyle_borg) May 5, 2024

Will Miller completely take over the backfield in 2024? Probably not. However, he is a player the Saints are excited about and should see a much greater role in 2024. He is currently going off the board as the RB42 with an ADP of 136.4, which is a reasonable price for a player with a lot of potential.

Avoid: Derek Carr

None of the Saints players are unreasonably priced in fantasy for 2024. Chris Olave is the WR11 in Underdog drafts, but has posted consecutive 1,000-yard seasons and has had bad touchdown luck. Alvin Kamara, Rashid Shaheed, and Kendre Miller are all available in the middle rounds, which is where players with their floor and ceiling outcomes typically go. Even Derek Carr (QB28) is reasonably priced, given his penchant for airing the ball out.

If there is one player to avoid in this offense for fantasy, it may just be Carr. For one, he offers no rushing upside at the quarterback position. But more importantly, his struggles as a quarterback (passing under pressure) could be far more prevalent in 2024. Last season, Carr completed 75.3% of his passes for 3,000 yards, 23 touchdowns, and five interceptions in a clean pocket. He had an 86.5 PFF passer grade. When pressured, Carr completed just 49% of his passes for 877 yards and two touchdowns with three interceptions. His PFF grade dropped to 51.8.

The issue for Carr is he will be playing behind a very bad offensive line in 2024. Former first-round pick Trevor Penning hasn’t panned out. Starting guard/replacement tackle Andrus Peat is no longer with the team. Right tackle Ryan Ramczyk doesn’t seem likely to play the season. The Saints drafted Taliese Fuaga in the first round of the 2024 draft, but he can only fix one of these problems. Only center Erik McCoy could be considered an above-average lineman on this unit. Carr has always struggled under pressure and he may see even more of it in 2024.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Target: Rachaad White

Rachaad White had an excellent 2023 season, carrying the ball 272 times for 990 yards and six touchdowns while adding 64 receptions on 70 targets for 549 yards and three touchdowns. White finished as the RB10 in fantasy points per game in PPR leagues with 15.8 points per game. He was the RB4 in overall points (267.9). Even after that excellent season, White is being drafted as the RB14 (ADP 60.4), which is a fairly big drop-off given his production last season.

The issue fantasy managers have with White is his lack of efficiency as a runner, which is fair. White has averaged 3.65 yards per carry to start his career and averaged just 4.6 yards per touch last season. According to PlayerProfiler, White’s expected points added (EPA) was -44.0 last season, which ranked 145 in the NFL.

These issues are being attributed to White, but a lot of them can be tied to the offensive line, which the Buccaneers have worked to improve this offseason. Tampa Bay selected Duke’s Graham Barton in the first round to upgrade and solidify the center position. That, combined with years of experience for Tristan Wirfs at left tackle, Luke Goedeke at right tackle, and Cody Mauch making the jump from FCS to the NFL, should help the line improve.

Rachaad White was a SOLID fantasy football asset last year.

Are you drafting the Tampa Bay Buccaneers RB as a top-12 RB this season? pic.twitter.com/D84kn3lgoV

— Kyle Yates (@KyleYNFL) June 7, 2024

Another reason to love White at his current cost is it doesn’t price in the fact that he is one of the few bell cows in today’s NFL. Tampa Bay only added a Day 3 pick in the backfield this offseason (Bucky Irving from Oregon). Irving is talented and could siphon some work from White, but is far more likely to be used as an injury insurance policy and special teamer in his first year.

White will continue to get plenty of usage in 2024 and will likely see light boxes due to the threat of Mike Evans and Chris Godwin in the passing attack. If that happens with the improvements to the offensive line, then White can certainly outperform his ADP and finish as a top-10 running back once again in 2024.

Avoid: Cade Otton

Cade Otton was a usable fantasy tight end in 2023, finishing with 47 receptions for 455 yards and four touchdowns. Otton finished as the TE25 in fantasy points per game (6.9) with that modest production but is currently being drafted as the TE19 in fantasy drafts.

At best, Otton is the fourth option in the passing attack once again in 2023, ceding touches to Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Rachaad White out of the backfield. At worst, he also gets surpassed by 2024 third-round pick Jalen McMillan out of Washington. It is hard to see a path to Otton beating his ADP in a condensed passing attack.

Houston Texans

Target: Tank Dell

Houston’s passing attack was the surprise of the 2023 season behind rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud. Nico Collins (80 receptions for 1,297 yards and eight touchdowns) had a third-year breakout and rookie Tank Dell (47 receptions for 709 yards and seven touchdowns) was stellar in 11 games before suffering a season-ending injury.

The passing workload will be even more complicated in 2024 with the addition of Stefon Diggs (107 receptions for 1,183 yards and eight touchdowns). It is nearly impossible to draft all three options with Collins (WR14), Diggs (WR22), and Dell (WR26) all coming off the board within 20 picks of each other in fantasy drafts.

In cases like this, sometimes the best thing to do is to invest in the cheapest player of the bunch. Thankfully, in this case, it is also the most efficient player of the group: Tank Dell.

When healthy, Dell was operating on the same level as Collins in terms of earning targets. The rookie had six games with at least seven targets, three games with over 110 receiving yards, and found the end zone five times in the four games leading up to his injury. More importantly, Dell shed the “slot only” label given to him entering the NFL due to his size (5-foot-8, 165 pounds), playing just 22.1% of his snaps in the slot. Four of his 10 starts resulted in a top-12 fantasy week. Two of them were top three.

Texans Tank Dell hitting the rocker step to drive Carlton Davis onto his heels for the game winner

This kid is so good pic.twitter.com/MqzwSALUFD

— JetPack Galileo (@JetPackGalileo) November 9, 2023

Dell is the cheapest option in this passing attack but has just as high of a ceiling as Collins, and especially Diggs, in this offense. He’s the player to target to get a piece of this offense in fantasy drafts.

Avoid: C.J. Stroud

C.J. Stroud was stellar as a rookie. He completed 63.9% of his passes for 4,108 yards and 23 touchdowns with five interceptions. He tied for the most 300-yard passing games among quarterbacks (six), despite missing two games. He has improved weapons in 2024 with the additions of Stefon Diggs and Joe Mixon. And his offensive line, which was decimated by injury last season, is healthy. So, why is he an avoid?

Simply put, Stroud lacks the rushing ability (39 carries for 167 yards and three touchdowns) to justify his current price in fantasy drafts (QB6, ADP 63.4).

For as great as Stroud was as a rookie, his final stat line resulted in a QB10 finish in fantasy points per game (18.7) and a QB11 finish in total points (280). For Stroud to hit that next tier of fantasy quarterbacks, he either needs to significantly increase his touchdown production through the air or unlock a rushing production we haven’t seen from him ever before on the ground.

Fantasy football can be complicated. Sometimes the players who are stellar in real football don’t produce at the same dominant rate as in the fantasy game. When it comes to the quarterback position, it is hard to justify taking Stroud as a pocket passer other pocket passers with strong production like Joe Burrow (QB8, 88 ADP), Dak Prescott (QB9, 95 ADP), Brock Purdy (QB13, 113.5 ADP) and Jared Goff (QB16, 126.2 ADP) available 30 picks later.

Indianapolis Colts

Target: Anthony Richardson

If you’ve been following a theme in this article, it is the idea that rushing production is king in fantasy football at the quarterback position. That makes Anthony Richardson an amazing selection, even with his current QB5 (ADP: 57.3) price tag.

We didn’t get to see much of Richardson as a rookie, but what we did see confirmed that he has the natural ability to be the next game-breaking quarterback in fantasy. Richardson completed 59.5% of his passes for 577 yards and three touchdowns with one interception in four games but added 25 carries for 136 yards and four touchdowns during that time. Richardson made just four starts, but two of them resulted in a top-4 finish in fantasy.

Are there concerns about his passing? Certainly. Is it an issue that he keeps getting injured? No doubt.

But ultimately those are gambles that you need to take in fantasy football. When Richardson is healthy, he can break fantasy. There were just 24 weeks with a quarterback scoring 29+ fantasy points in a week last season. One of them was Richardson in his third career start.

cannot wait to see more of the QB run game that Shane Steichen comes up with for Anthony Richardson.

these are back-to-back plays for touchdowns. pic.twitter.com/P4EM5EP3C8

— Nate Tice (@Nate_Tice) June 19, 2024

Drafting good players who score fantasy points is the most effective way to win in fantasy. Richardson is one of those players and is reasonably priced given his immense upside.

Avoid: Michael Pittman Jr.

Michael Pittman Jr. surprised many in 2023 with a top-15 wide receiver finish in points per game (15.6) and overall fantasy points (250.2). Pittman finished with career highs in targets (159), receptions (109), and receiving yards (1,152) despite playing with a backup quarterback for the majority of the season. Pittman Jr. is seemingly available at a discount in early fantasy drafts, going off the board as the WR24 with an ADP of 33.4.

However, there are concerns about whether Pittman can replicate that production with Anthony Richardson at quarterback.

Richardson and Pittman played together for the first four weeks of the season. During that four-game stretch, Pittman averaged 1.3 fewer targets (8.8), 1.75 fewer receptions (5.5), and 22.6 fewer receiving yards (22.6). The statistical decrease led Pittman to average 4.0 fewer points per game in PPR leagues (12.5) and 3.1 fewer points per game in half PPR leagues (9.8).

Is it fair to apply such a small sample size to Pittman’s production with an exciting rookie quarterback? Probably not. But we expect Richardson to run the ball more given his athletic skill set, especially in the red zone. Pittman finished ninth in the NFL in red zone targets last season (20) and produced 14 receptions for 102 yards and two touchdowns. This is the prime area for Richardson (and Jonathan Taylor, who wasn’t active the first four weeks of the season) to score.

We may see Pittman produce at the same level he did with Gardner Minshew II under center, but it is far from certain, which makes selecting him with a third-round pick a hard pill to swallow in fantasy.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Target: Evan Engram

Evan Engram led the tight-end position in targets (143) and receptions (114) last season while finishing third in yards (963) and 12th in touchdowns (four). Engram finished as the TE4 in PPR points per game (13.5) and the TE2 in overall points (230.3) thanks to his volume. He’s currently going off the board as the TE8 with an ADP of 78.5.

The tight-end position has always been important in Doug Pederson’s offense. For fantasy, he’s never had a tight end finish outside the top 10 in fantasy scoring. Engram has finishes of TE7 and TE4 with Pederson at the helm. The biggest issue with Engram’s utilization is he is reliant on producing yards after the catch (5.0 average depth of target in 2023). Thankfully, Engram still has the athleticism to produce after the catch.

Evan Engram: A Star Reborn (2022-2023)

187 Receptions (2nd)
1,729 Yards (4th)
8 TDs (T-10th)
1,009 YAC (2nd)
27 MTF (4th)
pic.twitter.com/rQd8qP534U

— Daniel Griffis (@DanDGriffis) May 15, 2024

There will also be an opportunity for Engram to get more active in the red zone in 2024. The Jaguars had 62 pass attempts inside the 20 in 2023. Engram finished tied for second with Zay Jones (nine), well behind the lead target-earner (Calvin Ridley, 25). Both Jones and Ridley are gone, leaving a significant portion of red-zone targets on the team. Yes, we can expect 2024 rookie Brian Thomas Jr. and Gabe Davis to get a fair share of that work, but Engram should also be a beneficiary.

Engram is a target-earning tight end who will provide a solid weekly floor and stability. There are worse things to have in a position that historically is very boom or bust in fantasy.

Avoid: Brian Thomas Jr.

Brian Thomas Jr. was somewhat overshadowed by the excellence of Malik Nabers during his final season at LSU. That seems wild to say about a wide receiver who produced 68 receptions for 1,177 receiving yards and 17 touchdowns, but it is true nonetheless. Thomas's draft stock spiked after an eye-popping NFL Combine that saw the 21-year-old receiver run a 4.33 40-yard dash at 6-foot-3, 209 pounds.

Like most rookies, fantasy managers are pushing Thomas up in fantasy drafts after he was selected in the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft. The rookie can be drafted as the WR42 with an ADP of 71.3. However, the path to earning enough targets to justify that ranking in his first year is muddy.

The Jaguars return three of their top-4 target-earners in Evan Engram (143), Christian Kirk (85 in 12 games), and Travis Etienne (73). Jacksonville also invested in wide receiver Gabe Davis in free agency to supplement the loss of Calvin Ridley (and eventually, Zay Jones). Davis is far from a complete receiver, but he’s averaged 74.8 targets, 40.8 receptions, 682.5 receiving yards, and 6.8 touchdowns per season since entering the league.

Thomas may emerge as the second or third target in this offense, but there will be considerable hurdles to do so. However, there is also a chance that the team takes its time ramping him up in the offense, bringing the rookie in to serve as a goal-line threat with the occasional deep-shot ability (aka the Zay Jones role).

Thomas has all of the size and ability to become a very good wide receiver at the NFL level, but making that bet on him as a rookie seems like a risky proposition. Especially in a range where you can draft a top-2 target-earner on other offenses.

Tennessee Titans

Target: Tony Pollard

2023 was a rough year for Tony Pollard coming off a broken ankle in the playoffs. Pollard posted a career high in carries (252), targets (67), and receptions (55). He had his second consecutive season with at least 1,000 rushing yards, 300 receiving yards, and at least six touchdowns. Those numbers seem strong, but the increased volume led to a hit in efficiency for the veteran running back.

According to PlayerProfiler, Pollard finished outside the top-30 running backs in yards per touch (4.3), juke rate (16.3%), and yards created per touch (3.16). A lot of that can probably be attributed to Pollard recovering from his brutal injury to end the 2022 season. Pollard was PFF’s top-rated rusher over the final eight weeks of the season.

The Titans saw the value in Pollard and paid him handsomely to join the team with a three-year, $21.8 million contract ($10.5 million guaranteed). Pollard won’t be taking over the Derrick Henry role (because nobody can), but that contract indicates that he will be the 1A in what should be a strong rushing attack behind a vastly improved offensive line.

Pollard is currently going off the board as the RB29 with an ADP of 100.7, which ignores both his role in this offense and his pure volume statistics in 2024. While Pollard isn’t going to command the same workload in 2024 due to the presence of Tyjae Spears, he can still easily beat this ADP.  

Avoid: Calvin Ridley

The Titans shocked many when they emerged as the winner of the Calvin Ridley sweepstakes in free agency. Tennessee signed Ridley to a four-year, $92 million contract with $46.9 guaranteed to join its revamped passing attack with head coach Brian Callahan.

Ridley was inconsistent in his lone season with the Jaguars, which shouldn’t have been surprising considering how long he missed due to his gambling suspension. Ridley had five top-12 wide receiver weeks last season, but nine weeks outside the top-36 wide receivers. He finished as the WR27 in fantasy points per game (13.5) while finishing outside the top-24 receivers in target share (22.6%, 30th), yards after catch (194, 53rd), yards per route run (1.6, 48th), and win rate versus man coverage (36.3%, 52nd).

The veteran receiver did post strong numbers in deep targets (28, eighth), red-zone targets (25, third), and touchdowns (eight, 11th), but those numbers aren’t historically big for consistent fantasy production, even if they do mesh well with Will Levis’ skill set. Ridley will also have to contend with DeAndre Hopkins for targets in 2023 after battling with Evan Engram and a rotating cast of wide receivers in Christian Kirk (injuries), Zay Jones (injuries), and Parker Washington (late-round rookie) with the Jaguars.

Ridley has plenty of talent and was paid well this offseason, but his struggles with inconsistency in 2023 make him hard to trust in 2024, especially when competing with a steady producer like Hopkins.

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