Fantasy Football Draft Targets and Avoids - AFC/NFC North

Fantasy football drafts are just around the corner, which means it is time to start breaking down the offenses that can provide excellent fantasy value in 2024. Every team in football has players that we should target and avoid in fantasy drafts. Over the next few weeks at RotoBaller, we will be breaking down the different players to target and avoid from each NFL team.

First up is the NFC and AFC North. There are plenty of talented players across all the teams in these divisions along with several team situations that have yet to make themselves clear. Who will be the leading receivers in Chicago? How will the Packers wide receiver group shake out? Which quarterback will start for the Steelers? We may not have all of those answers today, but we can analyze current ADP trends to find the players to value (or avoid) in drafts to start the season.

The ADP provided below comes from half-PPR leagues and can be found on FantasyPros. Check out the players to target and avoid in the AFC and NFC North below.

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Chicago Bears (NFC North)

Target: Rome Odunze

For the first time in most of our lifetimes, we will get to see a version of the Chicago Bears that has embraced the idea of the forward pass. There are plenty of weapons in the Chicago passing attack, but one value that stands out is rookie Rome Odunze.

Fantasy managers are taking a simple approach when it comes to the Bears pass-catchers, targeting the veteran options with established track records. DJ Moore is coming off the board with the 30th pick as WR19. Keenan Allen isn’t far behind him, with an ADP of 49 (WR30). Then comes Odunze, selected with pick 91 as the WR43.

Many will cite the idea that “there are too many mouths to feed” in the offense as a reason to fade Odunze. Others will point to the struggles of 2023 first-round pick Jaxon Smith-Njigba in the same offense as former Seahawks offensive coordinator Shane Waldron is now in Chicago. However, Smith-Njigba still finished the year with 93 targets as the primary slot receiver. And, truthfully, he’s not nearly as dynamic or athletic as Odunze.

Odunze was fantastic during his final two seasons in college at Washington. In 26 games, he totaled 253 targets, 162 receptions, 2,698 yards, and 20 touchdowns. He emerged as an alpha in one of the best pass offenses in college football, earning a 19.6% and 24.5% target share in his final seasons. Odunze also performed well at the NFL Combine, measuring in at 6-foot-3 and 212 pounds while running a 4.45 40-yard dash. In many classes, Odunze would have been a lock to be the first wide receiver drafted. He just happened to be in a class with Marvin Harrison Jr. and Malik Nabers.

What a play for Washington's offense. Take your pick...

Troy Fautanu, Michael Penix, Rome Odunze pic.twitter.com/DvV3o7FZlM

— Nick Falato (@nickfalato) March 9, 2024

Chicago’s passing attack is relatively ambiguous coming into 2024 with a new offensive coordinator, a rookie quarterback, and new pieces to the offense. There is a reasonable chance that Odunze could emerge as the team’s WR2 (behind DJ Moore), relegating Keenan Allen as a rotational, slot-specific receiver. There is a great chance that Odunze, not Allen, finishes second on this team in targets.

Odunze is reasonably priced at WR43 given what we know (and don’t know) about Chicago’s passing offense. However, he’s also the receiver with the best chance to crush his ADP, especially if he can earn a role on the field in two-wide-receiver sets.

Avoid: Keenan Allen

The piece of Chicago’s passing attack that seems most likely to fall short of expectations is Keenan Allen. Allen has been a steady veteran and is one of the best route runners in the league. However, he’s coming in as a target hog from a team with poor passing weapons and a bad defense. That is not the same situation he will be in Chicago.

Allen was able to dominate targets with the Chargers over the last five seasons, averaging 138.4 targets, 96.8 receptions, 1,064.8 receiving yards, and 6.2 touchdowns per season. However, he was competing with a deep-ball specialist (Mike Williams) and a threat out of the backfield (Austin Ekeler) for most of that work. The Chargers featured nobody else to monopolize targets in the middle of the field. They certainly didn’t have anybody who could keep Allen from seeing snaps in two-wide-receiver sets.

In Chicago, Allen will have to not only compete with Moore but also top-10 pick Odunze and tight end Cole Kmet for targets where he wins. Allen still can win on the outside, but he is at his best when working in the slot (55.5% slot rate in 2023). He should start the season entrenched in two-receiver sets but could lose that role as Odunze acclimates to the NFL.

There is also an injury risk with Allen. Since 2019, over the last four seasons, Allen has missed at least four games three times (including a seven-game absence in 2022). None of his injuries have been detrimental, but he misses time with soft-tissue injuries consistently. Those don’t get better with age.

The Bears will throw the ball and Allen will get plenty of work. However, the injury risk and legitimate target competition could quickly relegate Allen to a rotational role. It is impossible to earn targets when you aren’t on the field, which makes Allen the player to avoid at a WR30 price tag in this offense.

Detroit Lions (NFC North)

Target: David Montgomery

David Montgomery enters 2024 as a value in fantasy drafts once again, going off the board as RB21 (ADP 76). Fantasy managers are clinging to the idea that Jahmyr Gibbs will take on a much bigger workload after a strong rookie season; however, the reality is that this will once again be a split backfield.

Gibbs was good in 2023 (14.4 PPG, RB11), but he wasn’t far and away better than Montgomery (14.2, RB12) in half-PPR settings. Despite playing one fewer game, Montgomery paced the Lions in carries (219), rushing yards (1,015), and rushing touchdowns (13). The veteran handled 54.3% of the team’s red-zone carries, including 29 carries inside the 10-yard line and 17 carries inside the 5-yard line.

"I really regret drafting David Montgomery" - said no one ever. pic.twitter.com/q3MwhRS3lD

— Seth Diewold (@seth_diewold) November 12, 2023

During Detroit’s playoff stretch (games that don’t count for fantasy and get overlooked), Montgomery saw his role expand. In three games, Montgomery averaged a 51% snap share and 13 carries (plus 2.3 targets) per game. Conversely, Gibbs handled 41% of the snaps during the playoff run, averaging 9.6 carries and 4.6 targets per game. That dynamic suggests Montgomery is the preferred back when winning to close out games while Gibbs is the primary back in games when the team is losing.

Even if Gibbs does see his role expand in his second season, Montgomery isn’t going anywhere. At worst, this will once again be a 50/50 backfield with Montgomery earning high-value touches in the red zone. He lacks the receiving upside of Gibbs, but his RB21 draft slot is far too much of a fall for a player who finished as an RB1 in 2023.

Avoid: Sam LaPorta

Sam LaPorta was fantastic as a rookie, finishing as the TE1 in half-PPR leagues with 11.5 fantasy points per game. LaPorta earned 120 targets, 86 receptions, 889 receiving yards, and 10 touchdowns as a rookie. By all accounts, his status as the TE1 in fantasy drafts makes perfect sense. However, selecting LaPorta with the 25th pick in fantasy drafts is a very rich price to pay.

Historically, we have been accustomed to the tight-end position being bad for fantasy. In 2023, that wasn’t necessarily the case. LaPorta scored 11.5 fantasy points per game last season, which would have been the WR24 in the same scoring format. Seven tight ends had 10.0 half-PPR points per game. Another four had over 8.0 fantasy points per game, just missing the mark. There have never been more options for fantasy managers at the tight-end position. Paying for one (albeit a very talented one) in the third round has never made less sense.

It becomes much easier to fade the TE1 when options are available throughout the draft. Travis Kelce (TE2) is available nearly a round later. Heavy target earners Trey McBride and Mark Andrews can be drafted nearly 20 picks later. The tight-end leader in targets (Evan Engram) is available 50 picks later. The wide receivers and running backs in that range are questionable, making all of those perfect spots to pivot to tight end.

LaPorta is extremely talented and worthy of selection as the TE1. However, given the price it takes to draft him in fantasy, it makes far more sense to target other strong options at the position later in drafts to load up on talent early.

Green Bay Packers (NFC North)

Target: Jordan Love

The Packers have one of the best young wide-receiver rooms in the NFL, but selecting the one who will emerge as the top target is nearly impossible. If we believe that the Packers offense will be good again and several of those receivers will have fantasy relevance, then it is far easier to select the quarterback, Jordan Love, to get the most out of the team’s fantasy production.

Love finished as the QB5 in fantasy points per game last season, averaging 19.4 points per contest. He had seven games with at least 20.0 fantasy points in his first season as a starter. Love also provided some rushing ability (which is coveted in fantasy quarterbacks), totaling 50 carries for 247 yards and four touchdowns.

The Packers have continued to build up the team around Love, upgrading both the running-back position (Josh Jacobs and rookie MarShawn Lloyd) and the offensive line (2024 first-round pick Jordan Morgan). Despite the ample weapons and improvements around him, Love is going off the board as the QB8 in fantasy drafts (ADP 58).

Jordan Love ➕ Jayden Reed pic.twitter.com/gOgFVECmaq

— Fantasy Life (@MBFantasyLife) November 23, 2023

We expect the Packers to have a strong offense in 2023 and most would expect Love to grow after his first full year as a starter. The easiest (and most cost-efficient) way to get a piece of this offense is to just grab the quarterback and stack him with one or two of his pass-catchers you like.

Avoid: Romeo Doubs

Of Green Bay’s wide receivers, Romeo Doubs is arguably the least talented. He isn’t an especially precise route runner. He isn’t the biggest (6-foot-2, 204 pounds) or the fastest (4.57 40-yard dash). However, in 2023, he was the most dependable piece in a young, inexperienced wide-receiver room.

Doubs will have a role in 2024, but it seems likely that a year of experience will allow younger players (Jayden Reed and Dontayvion Wicks) to see their role in the offense grow. Additionally, Christian Watson has been working to correct his soft- tissue injuries, and if he can stay healthy, will certainly be on the field. If Watson can figure out his injury issues, he will likely be the WR1 on this team. Jayden Reed is the most explosive and versatile weapon on the offense and will command his targets and designed plays.

That leaves Doubs competing with Dontayvion Wicks for snaps as an outside receiver for the team. Doubs was good last season (especially in the red zone), but Wicks flashed down the stretch. From Weeks 13 to 18, Wicks played in five games and averaged 5.2 targets, 3.8 receptions, and 50 receiving yards while scoring three touchdowns. Conversely, Doubs averaged 4.5 targets, 3.0 receptions, and 40.2 yards while scoring just once.

Touchdowns are rarely sticky year to year in fantasy, especially for ancillary pieces in the offense. If Doubs sees his role decrease in 2024, it will be hard for him to have the same value he held in 2023.

Minnesota Vikings (NFC North)

Target: Ty Chandler

Ty Chandler made the most of his opportunity to see the field in 2023. After Minnesota’s Week 13 bye, Chandler had five straight games with a snap share above 50%. During that stretch, he carried the ball 65 times for 293 yards and two touchdowns while adding 11 receptions (on 13 targets) for 76 yards.

The Vikings worked to add more talent to their backfield in 2024, signing Aaron Jones to a one-year deal after he was cut by the Packers. Jones will operate as the team’s lead back next season, but Chandler should still have a viable role in the backfield. For as talented as Jones is, he has also struggled with injuries throughout his career. Jones has just three seasons out of seven with 15 or more games played.

There are RB snaps available in Minnesota after the departure of Dalvin Cook

Second-year RB Ty Chandler is in consideration to earn those snaps.

The 5'11 204-pound back showed physicality in the alley against the Seahawk safety pic.twitter.com/F89eJ3uqzV

— Nick Falato (@nickfalato) August 11, 2023

After Jones and Chandler, there isn’t much in the Minnesota backfield. Kene Nwangwu is a special teamer with limited touches on offense. Both Myles Gaskin and 2023 seventh-round pick DeWayne McBride weren’t used last season. That leaves Jones and Chandler as the lone returners with significant experience running the ball.

Chandler is an excellent value as the RB45 in fantasy drafts. He will have a role on the offense and could become a true three-down back with any injury to Jones at a reasonable price. The Vikings will likely lean on the run with Sam Darnold and rookie J.J. McCarthy under center, which should mean plenty of opportunity regardless of his role.

Avoid: T.J. Hockenson

Fantasy managers looking to hit value on a late tight end keep selecting T.J. Hockenson in drafts. Hockenson is going off the board as the TE11 in fantasy drafts, according to FantasyPros.

The reasons why Hockenson is an avoid have nothing to do with his talent and everything to do with the fact that 2024 will likely be a lost season due to a torn ACL and MCL in Week 16 from last year. During OTAs, Hockenson stated the doctors haven’t given him a timeline to return. Typically, ACL recoveries take 8-12 months for players to get to full strength. If the Vikings are out of playoff contention by the time he is ready, there is a chance they shelf him for the rest of the year.

The Vikings' acquisition of Robert Tonyan suggests the team is expecting to be without Hockenson for the foreseeable future. Tonyan isn’t as talented, but he’s a capable receiver and solid blocker. Regardless, drafting an injured Hockenson makes little to no sense for the 2024 season.

Baltimore Ravens (AFC North)

Target: Mark Andrews

The ideal fantasy tight end is either the primary or secondary target in the team’s offense. That has been true for Mark Andrews throughout his career. Andrews is a steal at his current TE4 price tag and 50 ADP.

Andrews was well on his way to another stellar season last year before suffering an ankle injury against the Bengals in Week 11. Through 10 games, Andrews was averaging 6.1 targets, 5.4 receptions, and 54.4 receiving yards per game. He also had six touchdowns, which was the most of any player on the team (even with seven games missed due to injury).

Andrews averaged 11.4 half-PPR points per game when active last season and was the TE4 in fantasy points per game from Weeks 2 to 11. Even with his injury, he finished as the TE13 in total points scored, less than one point from the TE12 (Dalton Kincaid).

This is the least expensive that the Lamar Jackson-Mark Andrews correlation play has been since 2019. Very doable this season to draft one of fantasy football’s best QB-TE combinations. pic.twitter.com/ySXXWDKl9W

— TheOGfantasyfootball (@TheOGfantasy) June 21, 2023

The veteran tight end is currently a steal in fantasy drafts and could finish as the TE1 overall with a healthy season.

Avoid: Zay Flowers

Zay Flowers had an excellent rookie season in 2023, leading the Ravens in targets (108), receptions (77), and receiving yards (858) while finishing second in touchdowns (five). Flowers finished as the WR32 in half-PPR fantasy points per game (10.5). His current price tag (WR27) assumes growth but also ignores a big factor in his strong finish.

Flowers was most productive at the end of the season without Andrews. The rookie receiver saw his targets and receptions increase by nearly a full point over the final seven games of the season. He also averaged over four fantasy points more without Andrews than with him in the lineup. From Weeks 1 to 11 (when Andrews got injured), Flowers had just two weeks with more than 10.0 fantasy points per game. After Andrews was injured, he had four weeks with 15.0 or more points per game.

It is fair to expect growth from Flowers in his second season. However, fantasy managers are elevating him too high given his role with Andrews and the willingness of Lamar Jackson to spread the ball around to his receivers.

Cincinnati Bengals (AFC North)

Target: Tee Higgins

It seems unlikely that the Bengals will trade Tee Higgins in the middle of their Super Bowl competitive window. Now that he has signed his franchise tag, we should expect his ADP (WR29, pick 62) to climb. Until it does, fantasy managers are getting a great deal.

Injuries, both to Higgins and Joe Burrow, caused a major dip in fantasy production last season. The veteran receiver had career lows in targets (76), receptions (42), receiving yards (656), and touchdowns (five) while playing just 12 games. Higgins will not be the top target with Ja'Marr Chase in town, but he’s still shown the ability to produce in a pass-heavy Bengals attack. In three prior seasons, Higgins averaged 109 targets, 71.7 receptions, 1,009.3 receiving yards, and 6.3 touchdowns per season. He had also posted two straight seasons of a WR15 or better finish.

Tee Higgins will be entering the final season of his contract.

Cincinnati already has to deal with the looming mega contract for Joe Burrow. How they handle a Higgins extension will be one of the off season stories to watch.pic.twitter.com/yOBHRyNsrB

— TheOGfantasyfootball (@TheOGfantasy) January 30, 2023

Higgins is a value at his current WR29 price tag and could qualify as a league winner should anything happen to Chase in 2024.

Avoid: Mike Gesicki

Fantasy managers will always hope to uncover the next great late-round tight end. Naturally, people will gravitate toward Mike Gesicki now that he is on the Bengals. Gesicki has shown the ability to be fantasy-relevant in the past and the team needs a new slot presence now that Tyler Boyd is gone in free agency. However, that doesn’t seem like a bet worth making.

Gesicki has struggled since his “breakout” 2021 season (73 receptions on 112 targets for 780 yards and two touchdowns). Over the last two seasons, he has failed to surpass 32 receptions or 400 receiving yards. Gesicki has not proven to be a reliable target- earner on teams (Miami and New England) looking for a complement to their receiving weapons.

The veteran tight end will have a role with the Bengals, but it is far more likely that the team moves Chase into the slot as a mismatch and goes with Higgins and another receiver on the outside. Gesicki’s price tag won’t destroy any fantasy team (TE28), but he is far more likely to frustrate fantasy managers than provide an edge.

Cleveland Browns (AFC North)

Target: Amari Cooper

Amari Cooper is being selected as the WR25 in half-PPR leagues at this point in the offseason. Given his track record, that is far too low given his ability to command targets in any offense he’s played in.

2023 was another strong year for Cooper. He finished as the WR17 in points per game (12.7) despite playing with four different quarterbacks throughout the season. Over his last two seasons with the Browns, Cooper is averaging 130 targets, 75 receptions, 1,205 receiving yards, and seven touchdowns. There was also virtually no difference between his output with Deshaun Watson and the other quarterbacks. He’s proven to be quarterback-proof throughout his entire career.

Holy cow Amari Cooper still has the gas 🫨pic.twitter.com/AqyGk5tLpx

— Anand Nanduri (@NanduriNFL) October 15, 2023

The Browns are signaling that they intend to pass the ball more in 2024. The team added Jerry Jeudy to serve as the WR2 in the offense. He will join David Njoku (123 targets) and Elijah Moore (104 targets) as the complementary pieces to Cooper. Jeudy is far more likely to absorb targets from those players than to take anything meaningful from Cooper.

Cooper has finished as a top-20 wide receiver in both of his seasons with Cleveland despite a tumultuous quarterback situation. He’s a legitimate WR2 in fantasy (with WR1 upside) who is available at the end of the fourth round in fantasy drafts.

Avoid: Nick Chubb

Similar to T.J. Hockenson, betting on players to return from brutal injuries is a bad bet to make. Chubb was injured far earlier in the season last year (Week 2) but still has no timeline for return. During OTAs, he was present and helping coach the running-back room, but didn’t partake in any workouts.

Chubb required two surgeries to fully repair the damage done to his knee, with the second surgery happening in November to repair his ACL. That means he will not be available for at least half of the season. The Browns also made roster moves suggesting there is no rush for Chubb to return, signing D'Onta Foreman and Nyheim Hines in free agency to join Jerome Ford and Pierre Strong Jr. in the backfield.

When healthy, Chubb is one of the best running backs in the NFL. However, drafting him anywhere in 2024 seems like a losing bet given the recovery time for his knee.

Pittsburgh Steelers (AFC North)

Target: Pat Freiermuth

Pat Freiermuth is shaping up to be the value tight end to target in fantasy drafts with his TE15 (ADP 132) price tag. Freiermuth enters 2024 with health and with a massive improvement at the quarterback position. It also helps that his new offensive coordinator (Arthur Smith) loves to target tight ends.

The fourth-year tight end struggled with injuries in 2023, limiting him to just 12 games. However, we are just two seasons removed from Freiermuth posting 63 receptions on 98 targets for 732 yards and two touchdowns. He’s also shown he could be a weapon in the red zone after catching seven touchdown passes his rookie year.

#Steelers QB Kenny Pickett ➡️ Pat Freiermuth for SIX#PFN365 Celly Score: 8️⃣.1️⃣ / 🔟

pic.twitter.com/0mZ8IgKdpg

— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) September 10, 2023

Last season, Arthur Smith designed plenty of passing plays for the tight ends in his offense. The combination of Kyle Pitts and Jonnu Smith had 160 targets, 103 receptions, 1,249 yards, and six touchdowns. Freiermuth isn’t the same athlete as Pitts, but he has the athleticism and ability to not only run routes as an in-line tight end, but to also command targets in the slot. Freiermuth also has an excellent chance to finish as a top-two target-earner in this offense given the questionable receiving talent in Pittsburgh.

The Steelers figure to be a run-heavy offense that utilizes Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren out of the backfield to set up play-action passing. Freiermuth could be entering a career year and is available as a mid-level tight-end price in fantasy.  

Avoid: Justin Fields

All reports out of Pittsburgh indicate that Russell Wilson will be the quarterback of the Steelers in 2024 unless he suffers a massive injury or puts together a sustained stretch of poor play. Despite that, fantasy drafters are still selecting Justin Fields as QB27 and ahead of players that we know will be starters for 17 games in the season. He’s even going ahead of Wilson.

The fantasy upside for Fields is absurd given his rushing ability, but there are no indications that he will have an extended chance to score fantasy points next season. Wilson showed he’s still capable of being a strong quarterback in 2023 in a bad situation (3,070 yards and 26 touchdowns with eight interceptions) and will be the quarterback for the Steelers in 2024.

Drafting Fields is just burning a bench spot that could be used on somebody who could contribute fantasy points at some time this season. His selection only makes sense in leagues that feature excessively deep benches.

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