RADIO
Fantasy football players spend so much time focusing on which players to draft that they sometimes overlook the players they shouldn’t. It’s a simple concept that goes a long way toward sustained success in your league.
Players disappoint every year. Whether it’s due to poor circumstances, injuries, subpar play, or just bad luck, there are always players who underperform. Busts are sadly part of fantasy football, but you must recognize the signs of a potential bust so you avoid stepping on a landmine similar to Steve Coogan in “Tropic Thunder.” (Shout out if you got that reference.)
Make sure you follow RotoBaller on X and check out RotoBaller.com for all your fantasy football needs. Here are five players to avoid in your 2024 fantasy football draft.
Be sure to check all of our fantasy football rankings for 2024:- Quarterback fantasy football rankings
- Running back fantasy football rankings
- Wide receiver fantasy football rankings
- Tight end fantasy football rankings
- Kicker fantasy football rankings
- FLEX fantasy football rankings
- Defense (D/ST) fantasy football rankings
- Superflex fantasy football rankings
- IDP fantasy football rankings
- Dynasty fantasy football rankings
Rachaad White, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
2023 was a true breakout season for White as he finished as the PPR RB4.
Rachaad White 31-Yard Touchdown!
pic.twitter.com/2QopotDLFW— SleeperNFL (@SleeperNFL) December 10, 2023
Even though White delivered the goods for fantasy managers, things get a little concerning when we look under the hood. Among 49 rushers with at least 90 carries, White finished:
- 28th in PFF’s Elusive Rating
- 40th in Fantasy Points Data Suite’s Explosive Run Percentage (EXP RUN %)
- 42nd in MTF/ATT
- 44th in PFF’s Rushing Grade
- 49th in Next Gen Stats Rush Yards Over Expected (RYOE)
Here is how White finished in these same metrics as a rookie in 2022 (among 48 rushers with 90+ carries):
- 38th in Exp Run %
- 39th RYOE
- 41st in Elusive Rating
- 46th in MTF/ATT
- 46th in PFF Rushing Grade
Two years into his career, we have enough data to say that White is a below-average back at the NFL level. Should Tampa Bay begin losing games this year, the team might experiment with other options. While he was a reliable asset down the homestretch in 2023, it’s best to fade White in drafts this year.
Josh Jacobs, RB, Green Bay Packers
Jacobs’ 2023 season was a disappointment. He finished as the RB28 one year removed from an RB3 finish. Even more troubling were some of Jacobs’ advanced metrics.
He finished 45th in RYOE, 41st in Rush Yards Over Expected Per Attempt (RYOE/ATT), and 81st in MTF/ATT. These are concerning marks and outside of his 2022 season, Jacobs has never been a very efficient player.
The team also drafted rookie MarShawn Lloyd in the third round of the 2024 NFL Draft. Lloyd was one of the best backs in the class on pure talent, and the Packers have stated they see “shades of Aaron Jones” in Lloyd’s film. Lloyd picked up a hamstring injury this summer, but this shouldn’t deter Green Bay from giving him touches in the season if Jacobs continues to struggle.
There’s just a little too much risk to recommend investing in Jacobs this year.
Kyren Williams, RB, Los Angeles Rams
One of last season’s fantasy MVPs, Williams' value took a hit when the Rams selected Michigan back Blake Corum in the third round of the NFL Draft. Corum was one of the most productive backs in college football and presents an immediate threat to Williams’ spot atop the depth chart.
Seeing Blake Corum score a touchdown in The Game right after Zak Zinter went out with a serious leg injury:
All. The. Feels. pic.twitter.com/bkoZrwmW1I
— Swanky Wolverine (@swankywolverine) November 28, 2023
Williams had an incredible 2023, but the Rams had a front-row seat and still felt the need to draft Corum with a Day 2 pick. GM Les Snead has admitted the team overworked Williams last year, and that they see many similarities between the two backs.
It was also reported the Rams were looking to trade their third-round pick until they saw Corum falling to them. It’s hard to believe the Rams would draft a back like Corum only to have him sit on the bench.
Williams has also struggled with injuries throughout his career, and he already missed a portion of the Rams’ offseason program with a foot injury. Williams has been a full go this summer and by all accounts looks sharp, but his latest injury is a reminder of his fragility.
Should Williams ever miss extended action, it will leave the door open for Corum. At the very least, we should not expect Williams to maintain his 21.3 PPR points per game (PPG) pace from last year.
It’s unlikely that Corum immediately takes over the starting gig, but this situation could morph into a timeshare. This backfield is murkier than some gamers want to admit. Let someone else take overpay for Williams on draft day.
Davante Adams, WR, Las Vegas Raiders
While Adams had another strong season in 2023, there are several reasons to be concerned about his 2024. Las Vegas figures to have a run-oriented offense and Gardner Minshew II as starting quarterback doesn’t inspire confidence.
He still drew targets at a high rate last year despite poor quarterback play, but he also turns 32 during the season. We have seen players drop off fast during their 30s, and there’s no telling when it will happen with Adams. Father Time always wins.
It just feels like the deck is stacked against Adams this year. While he’s long been a top fantasy producer, we must recognize the reality of Adams' situation. A second-round price tag is a high ask considering everything surrounding him. It would be easier to get on board if he were going a round or two later. This price tag is just a little too expensive.
Dalton Kincaid, TE, Buffalo Bills
After losing starting receivers Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis this offseason, it appeared that Kincaid’s role would expand in 2024. While many expect that to be the case, it may not necessarily happen. There are quite a few new additions to the receiving room, and it’s unclear how things will shake out.
Buffalo added the aforementioned Keon Coleman and Curtis Samuel this offseason. Third-year pro Khalil Shakir is in the mix for targets as well.
There’s also a lot of overlap between Kincaid, Shakir, and Samuel in terms of usage/where they run their routes. All three players ran over 59% of their routes from the slot in 2023, according to Fantasy Points Data Suite.
The Bills also plan to use rookie Keon Coleman at the X receiver position, but he’s not a strong separator, and such a move may not benefit his skill set. Should the team move Coleman inside in a “big slot” role, that presents even more of an issue for Kincaid.
There’s also the fact that his splits with and without fellow tight end Dawson Knox are concerning.
Data courtesy of Fantasy Points Data Suite
Games with Knox:
| TPRR | 20% |
| YPRR | 1.48 |
| Target Share | 13.3% |
| Air Yards Share | 9.7% |
| PPR Points Per Game | 7.4 |
| Receptions Per Game | 3.8 |
| Receiving Yards Per Game | 35.6 |
Games without Knox:
| TPRR | 23% |
| YPRR | 1.77 |
| Target Share | 19% |
| Air Yards Share | 19% |
| PPR Points Per Game | 13.8 |
| Receptions Per Game | 6.2 |
| Receiving Yards Per Game | 56.2 |
While there’s a path for a Kincaid breakout, it’s a little murkier than some realize. There are better tight ends with fewer question marks available elsewhere in fantasy drafts.
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