RADIO
Dan Fornek evaluates the best and worst offensive lines in the NFL to provide insight to fantasy football managers ahead of Week 11 of the 2021 season.
Week 10 is in the books and the contenders in the NFL are starting to become more clear. Teams like Buffalo, Dallas, and Green Bay got back on track with convincing wins and strong performances on both sides of the ball. The Titans, Chiefs, and Patriots continued to win and put themselves in the playoff picture for the AFC. Meanwhile, the Rams, Chargers, and Cardinals struggled, muddying up their positions at the top of their divisions and potentially messing up their seeding heading into the playoffs.
As the season continues, offensive line play becomes more crucial. The Patriots, Colts, Cowboys, and Packers continue to ride their offensive lines to strong performances and crucial victories. Washington had a great day across the line in their upset of the New England Patriots and the Chargers continue to perform at a high level despite a surprising loss to the Vikings. Several teams were also massively impacted by injuries. Denver’s offensive line struggled against the Eagles thanks to three injured linemen. Likewise, the Browns were down just Jack Conklin, but couldn’t get much traction against the Patriots' defensive line. The Steelers' offensive line lost two starters (possibly for an extended time), which helped result in a tie against the still winless Lions.
Looking ahead to Week 11, we have just two teams on bye (Los Angeles Rams and Denver Broncos). Now that we are over halfway through the NFL regular season, this article will focus on one champ performance and one chump performance of the week. From there, I’ll break down the matchups to target and avoid across the trenches so you can make the important waiver adds and lineup decisions to push for a fantasy championship.
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Champ of the Week
New England Patriots
The Patriots' offensive line put together an absolute clinic against one of the best defensive lines in the NFL on Week 10. New England’s line allowed just two sacks, four hurries, and six pressures a top-three passing rushing defense according to PFF. Three of the Patriots' offensive linemen finished the game with a pass-blocking grade over 65. All five offensive linemen also had at least a 67-run blocking grade and 64 overall grade according to PFF. New England’s offense responded accordingly. Mac Jones threw for three passing touchdowns and Rhamondre Stevenson finished the game with 100 rushing yards and two touchdowns in his first career start in place of Damien Harris.
More importantly, New England’s offensive line got back Trent Brown this week, which relegated arguably their best offensive lineman (Michael Onwenu) to a rotational role. Once the Patriots figure out what to do with him (odds are he becomes the starting left guard soon), their already formidable offensive line will take another leap. Thanks to early-season injuries, New England’s offensive line goes seven players deep, which will come in handy as they continue to develop their rookie quarterback and prepare for another postseason run.
Chump of the Week
Pittsburgh Steelers
The Pittsburgh Steelers came into the 2021 season with a questionable offensive line that had been showing signs of improvement. After a rough Week 10 tie against the Lions, the Steelers might be back at square one. The Steelers finished Week 10 with the lowest average overall blocking grades on PFF (53.44) despite giving up just six hurries and six pressures. Their best offensive linemen that game (left guard Kevin Dotson) injured his ankle and left the game early. Additionally, their starting right guard (Trai Turner) injured his ankle and was replaced by Joe Haeg after 50 plays. Ultimately, all five of the linemen that finished the game for Pittsburgh had a sub-60 run blocking and overall blocking grade this week.
Unfortunately, things won’t get any easier for Pittsburgh with an important conference game against the Los Angeles Chargers on the horizon. Dotson has already been ruled out for multiple weeks, and the early reports are Turner could miss the game too. Pittsburgh is also looking at potential absences from Minkah Fitzpatrick and T.J. Watt. Even with the return of Ben Roethlisberger from the COVID-list, Pittsburgh could struggle to get anything going against a Chargers defense looking for a bounce-back performance.
Fantasy Football Matchups to Target?
New England Patriots at Atlanta Falcons
The Patriots' offensive line is clicking (see “champs of the week” above) and now get a fantastic matchup against a defense that struggles to stop the pass and the run. Through nine games, the Falcons have only been able to generate 111 pressures, 11 sacks, 23 quarterback hits, and 77 hurries. Nobody on their team has more than 23 pressures or two sacks on the season. The Falcons faced a comparable offensive line in Week 10 in the form of the Dallas Cowboys. They were only able to generate nine pressures, three quarterback hits, and six hurries. Dallas blew Atlanta out of the water 43-3 thanks to 317 passing yards and two touchdowns along with 114 rushing yards. On the season, Atlanta is now allowing the second-most fantasy points to quarterbacks (21.5), the fifth-most fantasy points to running backs (22.0), and the eighth-most fantasy points to wide receivers (25.1) per game.
When it comes to fantasy, there are plenty of interesting plays when it comes to the Patriots' offense. Mac Jones is an interesting play if you need a solid QB2 floor from the quarterback position. If Damien Harris can return from his concussion, both he and Rhamondre Stevenson have upside as efficient runners behind a mauling offensive line. I prefer Harris if both are healthy, but the Patriots may utilize both running backs after Stevenson had a big week as the lead back against Cleveland in Week 10. Jakobi Meyers is the safest play at the wide receiver position for New England, although Kendrick Bourne has put together four straight games with at least four targets and three receptions. Hunter Henry remains an excellent tight end play this season.
Carolina Panthers vs Washington Football Team
The story of Carolina’s dominant win has been the fantastic play of Christian McCaffrey and the return of Cam Newton. Lost in the shuffle of the obvious though was the stellar play of their makeshift offensive line. Carolina was missing their starting left tackle (Cam Erving), center (Matt Paradis), and their backup right guard (John Miller) from the start of the season. Pat Elflein, their starting left guard in Week 1, was forced to play center in his first game back. Making matters worse, they were facing the Arizona Cardinals, one of the top pass-rushing teams according to PFF this season. Their offensive line responded to the challenge, allowing just one quarterback hit, three hurries, and six pressures on the day. Four of Carolina’s linemen finished the day with an overall blocking grade of 63 or higher. Their 65.5 overall blocking average was the third-best grade against the Cardinals defense this season according to PFF.
Carolina’s offensive line will catch a break in Week 11 against a Washington defensive line missing their two best pass rushers. Montez Sweat remains sidelined with a broken jaw and Chase Young tore his ACL against the Buccaneers on a non-contact play. Those two combined for 30% of the team’s pressures and sacks, 34% of the quarterback hits, and 28% of the hurries on the season. Washington still has Jonathan Allen and Daron Payne in the middle, but the lack of pass-rushing on the edges will allow Carolina to double team the middle. Assuming he starts, Cam Newton will be an upside QB1 play against a bad secondary with an ailing pass rush in front of it. Christian McCaffrey continues to have weekly RB1 overall upside and D.J. Moore and Robby Anderson are playable thanks to an upgrade at quarterback.
Buffalo Bills vs Indianapolis Colts
Buffalo was able to roll out the closest thing to their starting offensive line since Week 5 and the results on offense were stellar. Four of Buffalo’s offensive linemen graded out with a pass-blocking grade above a 60 against the Jets. Buffalo allowed just two sacks, three hurries, and five pressures against a Jets defense that has looked good All five offensive linemen had an overall blocking grade of at least 62, including three players with a 73 or higher grade. The Jets haven’t been great this season but had been showing signs of improvement along the defensive line coming into this week.
Buffalo will have another chance to build momentum on offense against a Colts’ defense that is strong on the interior offensive line but struggling in the secondary. Josh Allen is a locked and loaded QB1 against a Colts defense that allows 27 points per game to wide receivers. Stefon Diggs and Emmanuel Sanders are stronger plays this week considering Cole Beasley will be matched up with Kenny Moore. The Bills run game should be avoided this week because of the uncertainty of the lead back (three running backs scored a touchdown) and the strength of the Colts’ run defense (14.3 fantasy points per game allowed, third-best in 2021).
Fantasy Football Matchups to Avoid?
Cincinnati Bengals at Las Vegas Raiders
The Bengals' offensive line has played well this season, but they will have a difficult test coming out of their bye week. For as much flack as the Raiders get on the defensive side of the ball, they have done a stellar job getting to the quarterback this season. Las Vegas has generated 198 pressures, 26 sacks, 46 quarterback hits, and 126 hurries. The combination of Maxx Crosby (63 pressures, seven sacks), Yannick Ngakoue (41 pressures, six sacks), and Solomon Thomas (21 pressures, three sacks). On the season, Cincinnati’s offensive line ranks 24th overall in pass blocking and 26th in overall blocking grades according to PFF.
It will be difficult to bench Joe Burrow and any of his receiving weapons (Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Tyler Boyd) this week considering the likelihood that this game shoots out. However, it is very reasonable to expect underwhelming production from those positions given how quickly the Raiders defensive line can get to the quarterback. If those three produce, it will likely be because of their ability to create after the catch considering how quick Burrow will have to get the ball out. Joe Mixon remains a great play thanks to his volume and the Raiders’ struggles against the running back position this season (20.7 fantasy points per game, eighth-most in 2021).
Miami Dolphins at New York Jets
Miami was able to get a surprising win against the Ravens in Week 10, but it was on the back of a superior defensive effort. On offense, the Dolphins’ line struggled once again. Miami allowed three sacks, four quarterback hits, 13 hurries, and 20 pressures to Baltimore in Week 10. Three of their linemen finished with run blocking, pass blocking, and overall blocking grades under 50. Only the right tackle had all three grades above a 50. As a positive, Robert Hunt had a fantastic play where he caught a screen pass and scored a touchdown (it didn’t count).
Week 11’s game between the Dolphins and Jets will be a matchup between an offensive line that struggles to block people and a defensive line that struggles to stop people. The Jets have gotten solid production from John Franklin-Myers (29 pressures, four sacks), Quinnen Williams (23 pressures, six sacks), and Bryce Huff (13 pressures, four sacks) this season, but little else. The Jets are the worst defense against the run according to PFF this season (29.8 run defense grade). Tua Tagovailoa is a QB2 this week and Jaylen Waddle and Mike Gesicki are volume-based plays, especially in PPR formats. Myles Gaskin should be a strong play based on his matchup, but he has seen inconsistent work in the run game this season, playing on 65% of the offensive snaps just twice this year.
Minnesota Vikings vs Green Bay Packers
The Vikings' offensive line struggled against the Chargers on Sunday despite securing a victory. Minnesota surrendered two quarterback hits, 10 hurries, and 12 pressures against a strong Los Angeles pass rush. Only right tackle Brian O’Neill finished the game with a pass-blocking grade above 52, allowing just two hurries and two pressures. Left tackle Christian Darrisaw, center Mason Cole, and right guard Oli Udoh all finished with pass blocking grades under 40. No Vikings offensive linemen finished with a grade above 70 in pass blocking, run blocking, or overall blocking according to PFF. That is bad news with a divisional game against the Packers on the horizon.
Green Bay generated one sack, one quarterback hit, 20 hurries, and 22 pressures in their Week 10 win against the Seattle Seahawks. The Packers are ranked 13th in both run defense and pass rush grades this season according to PFF. Rashan Gary (46 pressures, six sacks) and Kenny Clark (39 pressures, two sacks) form a nice pass-rushing duo that can attack from the edge while collapsing the interior offensive line. Gary suffered an arm injury against the Seahawks, but all indications are he will be able to play this week with a brace. Dalvin Cook and Justin Jefferson are too talented to bench, but trusting any fantasy starter outside of that is difficult against a Packers defense coming off a shutout performance.
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