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Air Yards and Target Share Analysis - Buy Candidates

When it comes to fantasy football there are the people that stand by the community’s consensus of value, and there are those that look a bit deeper to find where the true value lies.  One of the many secrets to success is using the inside information that is available at your fingertips to find value before the rest of the community catches up with you.

This article analyzes target share, receptions, air yards and yard after catch to find who is really succeeding after three weeks of the 2017 season.  Many players are still undervalued even though they are likely to succeed from the patterns that have already been set. Strike while the iron is hot and trade for these players before they become untouchable.

In other words, like a true RotoBaller you need to break the trends, buy now and let the competition follow! Here are some players whose peripherals stats suggest they could see even further success throughout the rest of the 2017 fantasy football season.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy football rankings for 2024:

 

Undervalued Players to Buy Now

1. Emmanuel Sanders, WR, Denver Broncos

Sanders is tied for fifth overall in targets, and has taken an incredibly strong share of the Broncos' targets at 29%.  Not only that, but Sanders is 10th overall in air yards.  This means that he’s not only getting a grip of opportunities every game, but he’s getting the juiciest opportunities allotted to a wide receiver.  Being top of the charts in targets guarantees a solid floor and that’s what you need to win week after week.  The Broncos have an incredibly easy passing schedule ahead of them and Sanders is in a perfect position to take advantage of it.

2. Christian McCaffrey, RB, Carolina Panthers

CMC is tied for second most targeted running back in the NFL through three weeks.  He’s also in the best position of any other RB in PPR formats because he has by far the highest target share out of any RB at 26%.  You’ll see the same pattern in every player I discuss here: high floor, high ceiling.  CMC also has more yards after catch than all but four other running backs currently.  Greg Olsen is injured, Curtis Samuel is injured, and Pro-bowl center Ryan Kalil is injured, this all means that the offense will continue to be funneled McCaffery’s way as the vertical has been taken away. When you extrapolate just CMC’s passing yards to 16 games you get 96 catches and over 920 yards, this is good for low end WR2 numbers before you even add in any rushing opportunities he earns.

3. Jarvis Landry, WR, Miami Dolphins

Jarvis Landry is tied for 12th in targets in the NFL and he’s played one less game than 30 other teams.  I don’t need to say much more, but he also holds a 33% target share and brings a balanced game script to the table.  Landry is being used all over the field and is Jay Cutler’s most dependable weapon. With the Patriots and the Jets in his division, Landry stands to have multiple opportunities to hit pay-dirt and win you a week.

4. Chris Thompson, RB, Washington football team

Thompson has hit his opponents like a hurricane.  He leads all running backs in yards after catch, and has firmly solidified his role as the dominant third down option for Washington. Thompson has nearly 100 more yards after the catch than CMC does currently, but I have him ranked under him because his target share is currently “only” at 20%. Thompson still has that FLEX status associated with his name and thus you can get him for cheaper than he’s going to be in a few weeks.  When Rob Kelley gets back, Thompson’s role is secure.  Kelley doesn’t have the pass catching ability or the open field agility that Thompson does and that means that regardless of the situation Thompson has a possibility of being brought in to touch the ball.

5. Charles Clay, TE, Buffalo Bills

Clay is my best deal at tight end out of the group because it’s likely that you can pick him up on the waiver wire currently. Clay is not owned in 37% of leagues currently, this signals that his value is at what I like to call sandwich level which of course, means you could get him for the cost of a sandwich.  Clay has scored nearly 13 points in two of the three games played this season. He also is tied for third in target share out of all tight ends.  Only Jason Witten and Zach Ertz have a higher amount of the target share.  This is a great opportunity just waiting for you to take advantage.  Oh yeah, the last team he scored more than 10 points against was the Denver Broncos.

 

Air Yards Leaders Heading Into Week 4

Every one of the players listed in this table are currently undervalued and have a legitimate shot at shooting up the production charts. This is not an exhaustive list, but at first extensive glance these are the players that I expect to take leaps forward.

Name Position Team Targets Receptions Yards Air Yards YAC Target Share
Emmanuel Sanders WR DEN 29 16 163 317 50 0.29
Jarvis Landry WR MIA 26 19 126 134 74 0.33
Marqise Lee WR JAC 23 11 141 244 62 0.26
Sterling Shepard WR NYG 22 16 200 165 99 0.19
Mohamed Sanu WR ATL 21 15 160 153 42 0.23
DeVante Parker WR MIA 19 12 161 326 25 0.24
Robby Anderson WR NYJ 18 9 145 256 61 0.21
Torrey Smith WR PHI 16 9 125 307 37 0.14
Alshon Jeffery WR PHI 28 14 186 443 49 0.24
Travis Benjamin WR LAC 15 9 159 299 18 0.13
Donte Moncrief WR IND 15 5 112 271 8 0.18
Christian McCaffrey RB CAR 23 18 173 92 116 0.26
Chris Thompson RB WAS 19 13 231 62 225 0.2
Duke Johnson RB CLE 18 11 160 152 92 0.15
Alvin Kamara RB NO 18 10 76 80 53 0.16
Tarik Cohen RB CHI 25 20 126 76 88 0.23
Duke Johnson RB CLE 18 11 160 152 92 0.15
Zach Ertz TE PHI 28 21 245 228 53 0.24
Jason Witten TE DAL 26 18 159 164 25 0.24
Martellus Bennett TE GB 21 11 102 118 68 0.16
Evan Engram TE NYG 19 13 138 147 47 0.16
Charles Clay TE BUF 18 13 115 54 79 0.23
Zach Miller TE CHI 18 11 98 118 27 0.17
Jared Cook TE OAK 17 13 124 85 60 0.19
Benjamin Watson TE BAL 12 11 103 81 49 0.15
Jordan Reed TE WAS 14 11 84 73 34 0.21
Seth DeValve TE CLE 14 8 132 174 62 0.12

 

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