RADIO
After Week 1 of the NFL season, fantasy managers might be panicking on some top players like Ezekiel Elliott, but it is important to realize that it is a long season. It would be nice to start the fantasy season on a tear, but it isn't the end of the world if players come out of the gate a bit slow.
Going into Week 2, there is still no need to panic prematurely if someone on your roster has a bad game.
That said, here are some players I believe are in for a tough matchup on Sunday, regardless of whether fantasy managers are in any position to leave them on the bench.
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QB - Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys
Dak Prescott looked amazing in his comeback game last Thursday night after he threw for 403 yards and three touchdowns against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Dallas almost completely abandoned the run against Tampa’s elite run defense, which led to Prescott completing 42-of-58 pass attempts. The Dallas Cowboys will go up against the Los Angeles Chargers, who allowed just 135 passing yards in their season opener, as their already solid secondary got a boost with the return of Derwin James to the lineup. Along with a solid secondary, the Chargers have a quality pass-rush which could give Prescott some problems in this one, especially with offensive lineman La’el Collins now out of the lineup after receiving a five-game suspension.
If you have Prescott on your roster, you are probably in no position to leave him on the bench for this one; however, fantasy managers should temper their expectations a bit, especially with Michael Gallup now out of the lineup. Prescott has some upside for rushing stats, but he didn't show much of it in Week 1 as he was limited to just 13 rushing yards. After dealing with a shoulder issue in camp and coming off a gruesome ankle injury, the coaching staff will likely hold their breath every time their franchise quarterback runs with the ball. The Cowboys will likely get back to a more balanced offense, but they still figure to be a high-volume passing attack. Their star running back should be able to get more involved after he was used sparingly in Week 1.
RB - James Robinson, Jacksonville Jaguars
James Robinson was a massive bust in the season opener as he carried the ball just five times for 25 yards while catching three passes for 29 yards. Too much stock shouldn't be put into this because it was a blowout loss, but Carlos Hyde carried the ball nine times and was targeted twice, out-touching the sophomore 11-8. Robinson was set to smash against the Houston Texans' poor run defense, but the game script meant that Trevor Lawrence would have the green light to sling it. Once again, the game script in Week 2 against the Denver Broncos could limit the usage of the undrafted free agent running back.
In what is a tough matchup against the stingy Denver Broncos defense, Robinson’s outlook isn't very inspiring. Denver held Saquon Barkley and Devontae Booker to a combined 14 carries for 33 yards (2.35 ypc) in Week 1, so any sort of limited volume for Robinson will be detrimental to his fantasy production in this game. Until we see that he will be given the majority of the touches out of the backfield, it might be best to treat Robinson as no more than a flex option. In shallower leagues, he can be left on benches if there are some better options.
James Robinson handled an absurd 85.4% of JAX's RB carries last season.
On Sunday, even with Travis Etienne done, Robinson handled just 35.7% of JAX's RB carries.
— Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan) September 13, 2021
RB - Josh Jacobs, Las Vegas Raiders
Josh Jacobs salvaged his low-yardage totals in Week 1 with a couple of touchdowns against the Baltimore Ravens on Monday night, as he carried the ball 10 times for just 34 yards. His Week 2 matchup doesn't get any easier, as the Las Vegas Raiders will travel to Pittsburgh to take on the Steelers. The Steelers gave up the 10th-fewest rushing yards in 2020, and have another strong defense this season that includes the likes of T.J. Watt, Devin Bush, Joe Schobert, and Melvin Ingram III. The Pittsburgh defense could have their way with the revamped Las Vegas offensive line, which allowed a lot of pressure on Derek Carr and didn't open up many running lanes in the season opener. Denzelle Good suffered a torn ACL in Week 1, so an already banged-up offensive line is less than ideal for the third-year running back.
Kenyan Drake’s presence in the backfield is another reason Jacobs doesn't have a great outlook for this game. Drake’s usage in Week 1 all but confirmed he will be the guy when it comes to passing downs, as he secured all five of his targets for 59 receiving yards. Jacobs outcarried Drake 10 to six, but the limited usage as a receiver is concerning, especially because his performance on the ground wasn't exactly all that inspiring. The two-time 1,000-yard rusher is no more than a FLEX option for fantasy managers in Week 2.
RB - Mike Davis, Atlanta Falcons
Mike Davis, who many fantasy managers have labeled as the cheapest workhorse running back in drafts, is in for the worst matchup you can get as a running back when the Atlanta Falcons take on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. In Week 1, Davis had the look of a workhorse as he carried the ball 15 times and caught three passes on six targets. Although the run defense of the Buccaneers is a huge factor in Davis having a rough game, the game script might be an even bigger reason why this matchup is so unappealing. The Falcons will likely need to abandon the run in this game, as they will most likely be playing from behind for most of, if not all of this contest. The combination of Atlanta’s weak defense and Tampa Bay’s prolific offense is not a good mix for the Atlanta rushing attack.
We will likely see frequent connections between Matt Ryan, Calvin Ridley, and Kyle Pitts as they try to get chunk plays in order to keep up with Tom Brady and company. Davis’ outlook is more promising as the season goes on, but fantasy managers should be looking elsewhere for FLEX options or RB2 options in deeper leagues this week.
WR - Corey Davis, New York Jets
Corey Davis had a great Week 1 against the Carolina Panthers as he finished with five receptions for 97 yards and two touchdowns, acting as Zach Wilson’s clear No. 1 option in the passing game. Going into Week 2, Davis is in for a tough matchup as he will likely be seeing a lot of cornerback J.C. Jackson. Bill Belichick and the Patriots have notoriously been extremely rough on rookie quarterbacks, so Wilson and the young offense of the New York Jets could be in for a low-scoring game on Sunday. Last week, the defense held Tua Tagovailoa to just 202 passing yards and allowed just 16 pass completions. It wouldn't be a shock to see similar numbers for Wilson and company, as the run-heavy scheme of the Patriots could leave the Jets with a limited time of possession in this game.
Davis saw seven targets in the season opener, but he is in for more competition as Jamison Crowder returns to the lineup on Sunday. Not to mention, Elijah Moore was only targeted four times in his NFL debut, and he will likely have a much greater role as he was one of the most dynamic players at training camp. Davis should see a similar target share this week, but any sort of lack of efficiency will put him into the bust territory. After his blowup in Week 1, it’s not a surprise that fantasy managers will want to get him into their lineups. Still, he shouldn't be relied on to produce WR2 numbers and is best valued as a WR3/FLEX option.
WR - Deebo Samuel, San Francisco 49ers
After a huge performance in Week 1 against the Detroit Lions, it is safe to say that Deebo Samuel is going to be in a lot more fantasy lineups in Week 2 when the San Francisco 49ers take on the Philadelphia Eagles. The third-year receiver is in for a tough matchup in this game, as he will likely be seeing a lot of cornerback Darius Slay. Slay is one of the premier corners in the NFL, and he proved it against the Atlanta Falcons when he held Calvin Ridley, who is one of the best receivers in the league, to just five receptions for 51 yards on eight targets.
It is unlikely that Samuel will get the volume he did in Week 1, as tight end George Kittle, who only got five targets in the season opener, will likely be more involved considering he has proved to be their go-to option in the passing game in the past. Brandon Aiyuk wasn't targeted in Week 1, so it is safe to say he will have a more prominent role against the Eagles if Slay follows Samuel around the field. The San Francisco offense is extremely run-heavy, and the passing game is likely to be more evenly distributed in Week 2. The former South Carolina standout is an incredible talent, but fantasy managers shouldn't get carried away after his blowup performance.
Darius Slay in week 1:
- Vs Ridley: 2 targets, 0 rec, 1 PBU
- Vs Pitts: 2 targets, 1 rec 7 yards
- Vs Gage: 1 target, 0 receptions
- Vs Hurst: 1 target, 1 rec for 7 yards6 targets, 2 catches for 14 yards, 0 1st downs, 42.3 passer rating allowed.#Eagles pic.twitter.com/W6Y5TJk8Zu
— Thomas R. Petersen (@thomasrp93) September 13, 2021
TE - Dallas Goedert, Philadelphia Eagles
Dallas Goedert started off the season hot with four catches for 42 yards and a touchdown in Week 1 against the weak Atlanta Falcons defensive unit, as he was extremely efficient after only being targeted five times. Although he was impressive, one interesting stat that came out of this game was that he ran 26 routes compared to 23 by Zach Ertz. Ertz was only targeted twice, but it is safe to say that this can change on a weekly basis, considering defenses will likely be paying closer attention to Goedert.
The tight end position is a wasteland after the elite tier, so it is unlikely that fantasy managers will have any better options than Goedert this week. Against the San Francisco 49ers' defense, he should be downgraded to a low-end TE1 because most of his production will likely come from a touchdown, much like in Week 1. When it comes to Goedert and Ertz, it is especially hard to predict who may find the end zone because of how similar their route-running numbers are. Yes, the San Francisco defense just gave up eight catches for 97 yards and a touchdown to T.J. Hockenson, but that was on 10 targets. It is unlikely Goedert comes close to this type of target share because of the presence of DeVonta Smith, Jalen Reagor, and Quez Watkins.
#Eagles Week 1 TE usage
- Dallas Goedert: 71% snaps, 5 targets (42 yards, TD)
- Zach Ertz: 61% snaps, 2 targets (34 yards)— Michael F. Florio (@MichaelFFlorio) September 12, 2021
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