Fantasy Football Burning Questions: AFC East

The King’s series on hot fantasy football topics for the 2020 season focuses on separate divisions in each edition. We will examine some of the biggest burning questions per team as you plan for your upcoming drafts.

In this installment, we examine an exciting, yet also frustrating young QB, a surprise standout WR from 2019, and two fallen fantasy stars who are trying to climb back into the spotlight.

Check out our other installments of burning questions on the AFC South, AFC North, AFC West, AFC East, NFC South, NFC North, NFC West, and NFC East.

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Buffalo Bills: Can Josh Allen Become a True Top-Level Fantasy QB?

Engel: In his second year as a pro, Josh Allen finished as QB6 in Fantasy Football. That was mainly on the strength of his rushing abilities, as he led all quarterbacks with nine rushing scores and was third with 510 rushing yards. But as a passer, Allen was very erratic and spotty. He threw for 3,89 yards, which was 23^rd in the league, and 20 TD passes, which was tied for 21^st. Most notably, his 58.8 completion percentage was lowest among all starting QBs in the NFL.

The Bills have surrounded Allen with everything he needs to succeed. He will continue to work with the same head coach and offensive coordinator (Sean McDermott, Brian Daboll). The front office has built a friendly receiving crew around him. They acquired Stefon Diggs as the real No. 1 WR he was missing. John Brown and Cole Beasley round out a strong top three at the position. The offensive line returns intact and the running game should provide ample support with Devin Singletary and Zack Moss as complementary pieces.

Pro Football Focus noted Allen finished last in 2019 in negatively graded throw percentage. He also completed only 25 percent of his deep passes. According to the Bills’ official site, he has worked on tightening up his throwing motion this offseason. He also done a lot of film study to identify and correct his mistakes.

"Going back to last year just seeing some of the bad habits that would show up and the mistakes that I'm just like, 'Man, why am I doing this?'" Allen said, via buffalobills.com. "I'm slowing some things down trying to let my hip go first, trying to correct some things at the top of my release and trying to stay kind of on the same plane here and it's been paying dividends and we're going to continue to work on it."

As the video from Weekly Spiral below indicates, Allen was making many good reads, but his mechanics were a big problem.

Allen has a strong arm and can be dangerous if he starts to throw effectively on the run. There is certainly upside for him to be a Top 5 fantasy QB. His floor should be as Top 10 fantasy starter. He has obviously heard the criticisms of his accuracy and is working to curb the issues. But as Allen himself has admitted, the real challenge will come to execute his tweaked mechanics once play begins for real.

Everything is in place for Allen to improve more and raise his overall game in 2020. If he cannot make important strides in his third season, the Bills could conceivably start considering other options at QB. The pressure is on him to raise his game, and the supporting cast seems ideal. Those factors should breed fantasy optimism for 2020. So you should draft Allen as a Top 8 fantasy QB. It is very apparent what he must work on to get better, and he seems to grasp how he can refine his play. I will draft Allen with some confidence for better overall passing results in 2020 while he remains a rushing threat.

Miami Dolphins: Was DeVante Parker’s 2019 season a fluke?

Last season, DeVante Parker went undrafted in most fantasy leagues, and was becoming a subject of jokes about the biggest busts in recent years. Then, a strange transformation took place, and Parker became one of the best waiver adds of the year. He stunned the fantasy world by finishing as WR11, with 1,202 yards and nine TDs on 72 receptions. He averaged 16.7 yards per catch, which was eighth in the league.

The Top 15 Fantasy WRs of 2019, via FantasyPros. Did you realize where DeVante Parker finished?

In the second half of the year, Parker had 802 yards and five TD. Many factors changed for Parker in an unexpected breakout year. He talked about changing his diet and mental focus. Ryan Fitzpatrick, an aggressive deep thrower, played well to his strengths. Parker also stayed healthy and made it through a full season for the first time in his career. The departure of Adam Gase and the arrival of a new coaching regime also spurred a fresh start.

According to playerprofiler.com, Parker was eighth in the league in contested catch rate, as Fitzpatrick was very willing to take chances with his top WR in such situations. With an abbreviated preseason, it is unlikely rookie Tua Tagovailoa will take over for Fitzpatrick to begin the year. An in-season adjustment to a rookie QB could conceivably lead to a brief regression in Parker’s production. But you must also consider that Tagovailoa will likely be a willing student under Fitzpatrick and will be directed to utilize Parker’s abilities properly once he takes over.

Those who suggest Parker plays in a division with top pass defenses, and that should be a concern, should check the game logs from last season. He caught totaled 12 catches for 190 yards and a TD in two games vs. Buffalo. He finished the season with eight catches for 137 yards against the Patriots. He went over the 130-yard mark against both teams last year.

Parker’s FFPC ADP of 6.4 via fantasymojo.com points to lingering fantasy skepticism. But the focus and surroundings changed for Parker last year and the breakthrough campaign was not an illusion. He will be a very good value if you land him in that 6.4 range, because he is capable of performing as a high-end WR2 in 2020. The only minor concern may be how an in-season QB switch would affect him for a possible short spell.

New York Jets: Can Le’Veon Bell regain his best form?

Le’Veon Bell seemed to fit ideally with the Jets in concept. He was a star player who could possibly spur a franchise turnaround and ease pressure on Sam Darnold. But a year off behind a shoddy offensive line led to a very disappointing first season in green. He finished with just 780 rushing yards on a career-low 3.2 yards per attempt and scored only four times. He did catch 66 passes to boost his PPR numbers a bit, yet he only had 461 yards.

Bell is aiming to put last year behind him, as according to ESPN, he reported to camp at 215 pounds, his lowest weight since high school. He said he got “complacent” last season. He told ESPN he needs to regain his “edge” in 2020. The Jets have fully revamped their offensive line and Adam Gase will likely change up his play-calling this season after he took a good portion of the blame for Bell’s struggles.

Of course, any savvy fantasy leaguer will be understandably skeptical about a key performer in a Gase offense, The new-look line may need extra time to gel without a normal preseason. Darnold is still an obvious work in progress, and defenses will likely continue to focus on stopping the run more than the pass when they face the Jets.

Motivation and realization of what went wrong last year should certainly push Bell back to respectability. The Jets need Bell to support Darnold with a strong season, too. But with a shaky coach, an offensive line that needs time to mesh and a still-evolving passing game around him, expecting a return to fantasy stardom is unlikely. The Jets Defense will dictate that they play from behind frequently and that sort of flow won’t help his rushing upside. When the team does throw the ball, he may have more competition for catches than he did last year, too. The receiving crew does look deeper.

Yet Bell can certainly outperform last year’s totals to the point where he is a viable fantasy RB2. His ADP is at RB18 in FFPC drafts and that is a fair range for an improved, but not outstanding year ahead. I project 1,050 rushing yards, 60 receptions, 550 receiving yards and eight total TDs for Bell.

New England Patriots: Can Cam Newton re-emerge as a fantasy starter?

I covered this topic comprehensively on RotoBaller.com recently, and you can read the full breakdown here.   New England was intending to run an RPO-style offense even before they signed the former MVP. Now the new attack seems ideally made for Newton, who is also hungry to regain respect.

The playmakers he has with the Patriots do not elicit much excitement from the average fan, yet their skill sets should mesh well with Newton’s abilities. Julian Edelman and N’Keal Harry should operate well enough to catch quick-hitting passes and gain yardage after the catch. Mohamed Sanu should be reliable enough too, and of course James White will be an asset.

The Patriots also have a nifty mix of RBs that can threaten defenses with varying skill sets in an RPO style offense. Newton will obviously be working with a top-notch coaching staff that can get the best out of his skill sets.

The recent reports of a potential platoon should not mean much for Cam after a week or two if that happens at all. Newton is on a mission to recapture his better form with strong braintrust around him. He is currently QB14 off the board in FFPC drafts. The high stakes crowd is intrigued by the possibility of a comeback year, and you should be too. Newton is surely worthy of a high-end fantasy QB2 pick.

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