Fantasy Football Breakouts, Busts, and Locks - Green Bay Packers 2023 Outlook

The Green Bay Packers are in a state of flux for the first time in a long, long time. Some of the Packer faithful are choking on their provolone and cheddar sandwiches because Aaron Rodgers is no longer running the offense. The reins have been handed over to youngster Jordan Love, and the fantasy football world really has no idea how things are going to shake out.

Will Love become the next Patrick Mahomes, or will he become the next Trey Lance? Or maybe just something in between?

How Love and the Packers' offense progresses will have a major impact on the fantasy values of Green Bay’s running backs and receivers. So who will be the breakout, the bust, and the lock for fantasy football on the Green Bay Packers in 2023? Here is my take on which players to trust from Green Bay in fantasy this season and which of those we should not!

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Fantasy Football Breakout – Romeo Doubs, WR

Christian Watson was the rookie receiver in 2022 to break out when he went into overdrive at the midpoint part of the season and used his greyhound-like wheels to make big play after big play down the stretch. Now with Watson firmly entrenched as Green Bay’s No. 1 WR, it is time for fellow NFL sophomore Romeo Doubs to ascend as the No. 2 WR on the team’s inexperienced receiver group.

Doubs should bump up to the second spot in the receiver rotation behind Watson now that Allen Lazard has taken his talents to the New York Jets to follow Rodgers. Green Bay does not have a plethora of pass catchers (two rookie tight ends, and a rookie slot receiver), so Doubs will be given every opportunity to turn targets into touchdowns and short passes into long gainers. The hope is that Doubs builds off his 42-425-3 rookie campaign and blossoms into a solid possession receiver to complement Watson’s playmaking. I see that happening.

If you think Watson will steal the bulk of the targets from Doubs, think again. Doubs averaged more targets per game by a slimmer-than-a-Slim-Jim margin last year. Love and Doubs will learn the ropes together and maybe eventually become the second coming of Favre and Freeman. Doubs will have no choice but to take the next step in his development as only rookie Jayden Reed could put some playing-time pressure on him. Reed looks like he will be lining up as a slot receiver on three WR packages, though.

I know Doubs is dealing with a hamstring problem as we enter the season, but it sounds minor. It will not derail him from being a super sleeper for the fantasy managers wise enough to take a flyer on him in the late rounds.

Fantasy Football Bust – Jordan Love, QB

The franchise is now Love’s to run or ruin. The Packers saw enough of both Love and Aaron Rodgers to know they were comfortable to make one of the biggest personnel changes in team history. The sample size has been small -- 83 passes in the NFL, and most recently this preseason where he threw three touchdown passes in three games. Love has looked more like an NFL quarterback than a CFL quarterback when given the opportunity to play.

That being said, we have not seen what has gone on at training camp. Love might be throwing pinpoint spirals, or he might be throwing dying quails every practice. The kid is coming into the 2023 season with less experience than most of the starting signal-callers in the NFL, with mainly first-round rookies being the ones with fewer pro snaps.

Love will also be throwing to the worst receiving corps on paper that Green Bay has had this century. Allen Lazard, Randall Cobb, and Robert Tonyan are all elsewhere. In their places are rookies and second-year players who are in the same boat as Love. They might be talented, but they are unproven. It is hard to imagine them being as productive as the veterans they are replacing, at least this year.

Look for Love to struggle while he navigates the NFL landscape and deals with disguised defenses and the pressure of stepping into Rodgers’ role with a rabid fan base living and dying with every pass. He will hopefully improve over the next couple of years as he and his supporting cast mature together, but 2023 is shaping up to be a tough season for Mr. Love.

Fantasy Football Lock – Aaron Jones, RB

Aaron Jones has been Green Bay’s top tailback for several seasons and has never disappointed fantasy managers. Despite having to cede some of his carries to A.J. Dillon, Jones has rushed for 1,000 yards in three of the past four years and has scored 47 total touchdowns over that span. Jones has also been a constant threat in the passing attack, averaging 50 receptions and 400 receiving yards per year since 2019. He has been the complete fantasy package and is showing no signs of wear and tear considering he averaged 5.3 yards per carry in 2022.

Will Jones’ fantasy value go down due to Rodgers not being under center anymore? It might suffer slightly. Sure, Rodgers would keep defenses from crowding the box on Jones and he was superb at finding his favorite running back in the flat or far downfield in the passing game. But maybe now Jones will be relied on more than ever before because Love will need all the help he can get. Jones might get an extra 50 touches this year due to Matt LaFleur and co. focusing on the running game and keeping things conservative until they know Love can handle more responsibility.

There is no indication that the Jones-A.J. Dillon dynamic will shift in Dillon’s favor in 2023. Dillon is not the pass catcher or the home run threat Jones is. Jones averages a yard more per carry and finds the end zone better despite not being the inside runner Dillon is.

Green Bay’s ground game is Jones’ to steer, and he will be afforded more chances than ever to make plays. There is no guarantee his young quarterback will be able to make the plays Rodgers did, especially early on. Jones is not a top-five fantasy back because he does not get enough rushing attempts. He is certainly a top-10 back that should remain a fantasy force even though Rodgers is no longer the one handing off to him.

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