RADIO
For fantasy football players, draft season is like Christmas morning to a child. It only comes around once a year, and we all look forward to getting our favorite presents. While our thoughts are often dominated by big-ticket players as we approach the draft, the difference between missing the playoffs and winning a league championship is just as often found in the late rounds. So forget about Justin Jefferson (or the brand-new bike with the giant red bow, if you will) for the moment and consider what values there are to be found when it gets late.
Below, we’ll be looking at potential breakout wide receivers who may still be available in the final third of your draft. All of the players discussed below can be found at 117 ADP or later. In 12-team leagues, that translates to Round 11 and beyond. The ADPs referenced in this article are based on draft data from FFPC’s PPR format.
The term “breakout” in our game is a bit vague. To some, it describes nothing short of a receiver elevating their production to become a top-20 stud. If that’s your definition and you’re looking for someone drafted late to break out to become a WR1, you should temper your expectations. The reality is that many players selected in the last few rounds of the draft may become droppable. Fantasy managers should be looking for players who stand the best chance of being worthy of a roster spot all year as quality flex plays or bye-week replacements. Here are four wide receivers to consider:
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JuJu Smith-Schuster, New England Patriots
ADP: 117.3
“If only JuJu Smith-Schuster could get out of Kansas City and away from Patrick Mahomes, he could really break out. He needs Mac Jones,” said nobody, ever. Fine, but there are reasons to believe Smith-Schuster will be a useful fantasy asset in 2023.
Smith-Schuster quickly emerged onto the fantasy scene as a second-round pick in 2017 with Ben Roethlisberger’s Pittsburgh Steelers. He put up a promising 13.7 PPR points per game, followed by an excellent sophomore season in which he finished as the WR8. Sandwiched between two injury-impacted seasons in 2019 and 2021 was a 2020 season with a WR16 finish.
2022, Smith-Schuster’s only season with the offensive juggernaut Kansas City Chiefs, was a fantasy disappointment at 11.7 PPR points per game. He was still surprisingly efficient last year with 9.2 yards per target, good for 15th among all receivers. This spring, he signed a three-year, $33 million deal with New England. He was motivated to ink the deal because, “Honestly Bill, man.”
Bill Belichick might not have made the best decision to have Matt Patricia and Joe Judge team up to run the Patriots’ offense in 2022. The relationship between Patricia and Judge was dysfunctional. The relationship between Belichick and his coaches was dysfunctional. Most importantly, Patricia and Judge lost the offensive locker room early. Especially with regard to quarterback Mac Jones, who reportedly never trusted Judge.
New England had the worst offensive results in the Belichick era by multiple metrics, finishing 26th in the NFL with 314.6 yards per game. They were dead last in the league in red zone touchdown percentage at 42.2% and 27th in third-down percentage at 34.9%.
The Patriots seem to have Smith-Schuster slated to replace Jakobi Meyers in a big-slot role. For his part, Meyers had a surprisingly solid 2022 for fantasy managers even in last year’s toxic environment. He averaged 13 PPR points per game with a target share of 18.3%. If Smith-Schuster can command a similar percentage of targets, he has a chance to significantly exceed Meyers’ production. Especially under new offensive coordinator Bill O’Brien.
O’Brien runs a more uptempo offense with a special place in his heart for empty backfields, so they should pass more. New England’s offense failed last year partly because Patricia fell in love with deep shots down the field. Perhaps O’Brien’s tendency to find matchup advantages in the middle of the field will give Smith-Schuster a PPR boost.
Quarterback Mac Jones took a step backward under Patricia and Judge but that doesn’t necessarily mean he'll stay there. He’s still young. O’Brien ran Alabama’s offense when Jones was their quarterback. He called the plays that helped Jones become a first-round pick in 2021, a season in which Jones was selected for the Pro Bowl as a rookie.
Obviously, drafting Smith-Schuster is a volume play. Fantasy managers can only hope he develops an early rapport with Jones and justifies his WR1 position on the depth chart with a heavy target share. But the talent is still there as well. At age 26, he's still in his physical prime. If he’s still there late in your draft, snap him up.
Allen Lazard, New York Jets
ADP: 137.7
The Jets signed Allen Lazard to a four-year, $44 million contract in March after Aaron Rodgers assured Lazard that he would eventually sign with the Jets as well. Lazard had to wait nearly six weeks for the deal to be finalized. At one point, there was a period of about eight hours in which Lazard doubted whether the signing would happen, later smiling and recounting to reporters, “… I’m like what the f–, bro.”
As hilarious as it would have been for Lazard to be left at the altar by Rodgers, the alternative is a pretty ideal situation for Lazard’s fantasy production.
Is the breathtaking level of mutual trust these two men displayed an actual data point in support of Lazard breaking out? Probably not. After all, Lazard has had Rodgers throwing the ball to him since he entered the league. But there are other reasons to believe.
In 2022 with Green Bay, Lazard averaged a career-best 11.7 PPR points per game. Many analysts apparently see that number as his ceiling. Rotowire has him projected to lose over one PPR point per game at 10.3. But is that number justified?
Lazard’s 2022 season was uneven. After missing Week 1, he averaged 14.7 PPR points per game from Week 2 through Week 9. During the rest of the season, he averaged nine points per game. That includes a 10.1-point performance in Week 18.
In Week 7, Lazard suffered a shoulder injury that caused him to miss Week 8. But the issue continued to pop up on the injury report well into the second half. It’s possible that playing through it had a role in the lack of production following the injury.
Lazard left some meat on the bone last season. According to Rotowire’s Air Yards and Completed Air Yards data, he ranked 15th among all wide receivers in Unrealized Air Yards. This indicates that he may be due for some positive regression.
In New York, Lazard could be in a better situation with the personnel around him. In 2022, Rodgers’ well-known inclination toward deep shots to Lazard was evidenced in a healthy average depth of target (aDOT) of 12.5, good for 28th among all pass-catchers.
What’s interesting is that his Packer teammate, Christian Watson, ranked 12th at 15.8. Meanwhile, Garrett Wilson, Lazard’s counterpart in New York, had an aDOT of 10.5. Lazard will thrive in his role as a field stretcher along the boundary with Wilson commanding attention underneath.
Jakobi Meyers, Las Vegas Raiders
ADP: 129.2
Jakobi Meyers, 26, had a career year with New England in 2022. He caught 67 passes for 804 yards and six touchdowns, good for 13 PPR points per week. Like Lazard, Meyers’ appearance on this list results from the expert consensus figuring that he is due for a significant step backward in 2023.
Like Lazard, Meyers had a banged-up year. He missed two games with a knee injury early in the year and missed Week 14 with a concussion. He then dealt with a shoulder injury that never kept him off the field but made him a frequent flyer on the injury report.
Meyers has better skills than many give him credit for. This is perhaps because of his undrafted free agent status coming into the league, or his mostly unproductive rookie year.
In 2022, he placed 23rd among all wide receivers with 1.9 yards per route run. Pro Football Focus asserts that YPRR provides “a better indicator of production than yards per reception or even yards per target.” He also ranked 29th among all receivers with a 75.8 receiving score from PFF.
Remember, all of this occurred in the context of the horrible New England offense of 2022 led by Patricia and Judge, as discussed earlier. This year, Meyers will be involved in a Las Vegas Raiders offense that will be led by Josh McDaniels, who ran the Patriots' offense for the first three years of Meyers’ career.
Last season, Meyers lined up for most of his snaps from the slot, where he has always been oversized at 6’2”, 203 pounds. This year, the Raiders have two true slot receivers in Hunter Renfrow and DeAndre Carter. Meyers could get a boost in production if he gets more snaps on the outside opposite the ultra-talented Davante Adams, who always commands extra attention from defenders.
The Raiders passing game as a whole has a chance to be more productive in fantasy this year. They’ve replaced Derek Carr with Jimmy Garoppolo, which should be a good thing. Garoppolo’s career touchdown percentage of 5.0% is better than Carr’s (and for that matter, Meyers’ old quarterback, Mac Jones).
Garoppolo is also much more accurate with the football than Carr. Carr ranked fourth-worst in the league in Bad Throw Percentage, only worse than Zach Wilson, Davis Mills, Marcus Mariota, and just better than Carson Wentz. Garoppolo, by comparison, was the sixth-best among qualifiers at 12.7%. Garoppolo also beats Carr in On-Target Percentage, 74.5% to 71.8%.
Granted, Meyers’ true “breakout” year may have already happened in 2022. But there are enough reasons to believe he still hasn’t hit his fantasy ceiling.
Nico Collins, Houston Texans
ADP: 130.1
Okay, so you’re here looking for a true breakout. Someone with post-hype, “if-only” vibes. 2023 could be the year Nico Collins does it.
Collins was drafted in the third round by the Houston Texans in 2021 out of Michigan as a physical specimen/project-type prospect. He’s got length at 6’4” and his athleticism score at the combine ranked seventh of all receivers in his draft class. He slipped a bit in the draft because of concerns about his route running, ability to gain separation, and skills to get off of defenders on non-vertical routes.
But he’s had two years to learn and he has a wide-open opportunity to go along with talent. His top competition for targets are receivers Robert Woods, John Metchie, and tight end Dalton Schultz.
Collins’ breakout largely depends on one thing: second-overall pick C.J. Stroud being better than Davis Mills.
Mills was horrible last year, with the third-worst passer rating among qualifiers at 78.8. His PFF grades were all near league bottom, as was his touchdown rate. Stroud is almost certainly a better NFL quarterback than Davis Mills already.
If Stroud becomes a competent NFL quarterback as a rookie and understands the pro game well enough to show the arm strength and accuracy that made him the second pick, then Collins should reap much of the benefit.
If Stroud doesn’t develop quickly, then Collins becomes droppable. That comes with the territory in the late rounds. If you’re trying to hit a home run in this part of the draft and you don’t mind striking out, Collins is the pick.
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