Fantasy Football Breakout QBs You Must Roster - Later-Round ADP Value Picks

One of the most common mistakes that investors make is assuming that past performance will predict future results. In fantasy, that sentiment extends to quarterbacks, where many people have many strong opinions about who is bad and always will be. 

But things aren’t always so static for fantasy quarterbacks. Geno Smith went from seven years of backup duty to QB5 in 2022. Baker Mayfield was on his fourth team in two calendar years last season but surprised his way to QB10. Fantasy players of a certain age will remember journeyman Rich Gannon becoming a league-winner in his mid-30s.

There is huge value to be had in finding top-15 quarterbacks after the draft has reached triple-digit picks, especially in superflex leagues and/or in case of injury. So who’s worth a late look in 2024?

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Jayden Daniels, Washington Commanders

Daniels isn’t exactly Chad Powers-ing his way onto the field after winning the Heisman Trophy and going No. 2 overall in the NFL Draft, but fantasy player values are almost always the most difficult to set during a player’s rookie season. A rookie quarterback on a bad team is going to scare some people away, and Daniels' ADP is still 102, well after the other quarterbacks with similar rushing ability.

For someone with Daniels’ rushing floor — he surpassed 1,100 rushing yards as a senior at LSU last season — the chance to have a quarterback at or near the top five in quarterback rushing attempts at this stage of the draft is likely worth the pick.

There is also some precedent for the type of rushing workload Daniels could undertake in 2024. When Washington offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury coached Kyler Murray in Arizona, Murray averaged nearly eight run-pass option plays per game and consistently more than six carries per game. At his rushing apex, Murray rushed for 11 touchdowns in 2020.

It’s fitting that Jayden Daniels first preseason completion was on a deep ball and his first touchdown was on a QB run. He was the most explosive passer and runner in all of college football last year. THAT’S HOW YOU HEISMAN.

🎥 -@nfl pic.twitter.com/dvovVFoquU

— Robert Griffin III (@RGIII) August 10, 2024

Projecting rookie quarterbacks is a dangerous game, but Daniels’ rushing floor will have fantasy value, especially at this price.

Sam Darnold, Minnesota Vikings

Go ahead, scoff if you must — but then remember there is a difference between fantasy football and real football. Is Sam Darnold going to finally free the Minnesota Vikings from unending suffering? Probably not. But he can be a fantasy factor.

He has a pretty sweet deal for what seems to be a one-year marriage of convenience: An unquestioned hold of the top spot with rookie quarterback J.J. McCarthy out for the season, a proven offensive coach in Kevin O’Connell, the best receiver in football in Justin Jefferson, two excellent tackles, and a host of legitimate secondary pass-catchers in T.J. Hockenson, Jordan Addison, and Aaron Jones.

Last season, Joshua Dobbs averaged 18 points in four games in which he took 85+% of snaps with Minnesota. Even without Dobbs’ rushing ability, Nick Mullens averaged 18.3 points in his three full games in this offense with finishes of QB5, QB12, and QB15. 

For the price of a deep-round draft pick or even a waiver pickup, Darnold has major upside in superflex leagues or as quality backup on a good offense in one-QB formats. This is by far the best supporting case of any quarterback in this range — and that matters.

Sam Darnold and Jalen Nailor dominating on the first series 🎯 #Skol

pic.twitter.com/YANPHAvlSs

— The Purple Persuasion (@TPPSkol) August 10, 2024

 

Bryce Young, Carolina Panthers

Young’s first year was an absolute nightmare by any measure, and his fantasy draft stock puts him squarely in the plus-200 range of fringe starters, placeholders, and expensive backups. 

But let’s not automatically dismiss a No. 1 quarterback after one season with a coaching staff that was fired mid-season and a a surrounding cast that was more in line with an expansion franchise. Simply having a rebuilt line and a much improved supporting cast of offensive skill players in 2024 should help.

Nice little throw on the run from Bryce Young 🎯

📱: Stream #CARvsBUF on #NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/tM54H7COAA

— NFL (@NFL) August 24, 2024

Let’s also remember this is a bet on Young’s coach as much as it is on him. New Panthers coach Dave Canales has brought the best out of two other quarterbacks off the scrap heap during his past two stops as an offensive coordinator, as the aforementioned resurgences of Smith and Mayfield both were Canales’ handiwork. 

Under Canales, Mayfield’s bad throw percentage dropped four full percent from the prior year, his pressure rate was the lowest of his career, and he set career highs in completions, completion percentage, yards, and passing touchdowns in 2023.

Smith’s bad throw percentage was three percent lower under Canales than it was before or after, and his 2022 season remains a career-best in completed air yards per attempt, completion percentage, yards, and touchdowns. 

In a 10-team, 20-round draft, Young isn’t being drafted at all. Attached to a coach with a track record of doing the very thing needed to revive Bryce Young, you can roster Young with confidence he can develop into a superflex option or QB2, with the added bonus that doing so comes with no risk at all.

Will Levis, Tennessee Titans

Even if your league does not score Mayonnaise Enjoyed Per 60 (MayoEP/60), Levis has potential as a deep-round option who can pile up passing yards quickly and at a very low draft cost hovering around 182 ADP.

Among quarterbacks who played in at least seven games, Levis led the NFL in intended air yards/attempt by a lot — 1.6 more yards than the next closest quarterback — and finished third in completed air yards per attempt. 

All 4 pass attempts by Will Levis on the #Titans opening drive - 4/4, 65 yards.

Play-action on first 3 attempts, 4th was a screen.
Gains of 8, 22, 22, and 13 yards.

Explosive, successful plays with only one target further than 2 yards downfield. #TENvsNO pic.twitter.com/tDaN8b3xnS

— Justin Graver (@titansfilmroom) August 25, 2024

The Titans likely aren’t going to be a contender, but the Titans made some offensive investment around Levis by drafting tackle J.C. Latham and adding receiver Calvin Ridley and running back Tony Pollard.

If Tennessee can alleviate the immense amounts of pressure that Levis faced as a rookie, a 28% mark that was the second-most in football, there’s reason to believe Levis’ compiled stats over a full 17 games will be a nice value at this range of fantasy drafts.

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