RADIO
Yes, Drake London will finish better than WR35 this season, but that’s already baked into his price tag. Instead of highlighting the obvious 2024 breakout candidates, my goal for this article is to uncover the ones that are going a bit under the radar.
You’ll notice a trend with these four breakout candidates. They’re either young, efficient, or in a new (and more fruitful) situation. Each of these guys has the ability to break fantasy football this season given their acquisition cost. So, why aren’t they being drafted earlier? Two words: Risk aversion.
In more cases than not, people are so focused on the number of fantasy points produced the season prior. But it’s important to look at the underlying metrics and situations these guys find themselves in this season. Yes, fantasy points from the year before can be indicative of future success, but there are more inputs to the calculation than just that. Draft these four players in 2024 and watch them break out in a major way on your fantasy team.
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Tyjae Spears, Tennessee Titans
Derrick Henry out, Tony Pollard in. And while the Titans paid the former Cowboys running back $10.5M guaranteed, they also handed a 30-year-old Calvin Ridley $50M guaranteed. That's to say we shouldn’t put too much stake in the contracts Tennessee is giving to its offensive skill players.
That leads us to Tyjae Spears, the second-year incumbent in the Titans backfield this season. Despite Henry’s presence in Tennessee, Spears still managed to see 10 weighted opportunities per game on a 52.9% snap share as a rookie. That makes sense when you look at how efficient he was. Per PlayerProfiler, he ranked fourth among running backs in Juke Rate (26.3%), fifth in yards created per touch (4.58), and sixth in yards per touch (5.5).
#TitanUp RB Tyjae Spears. Electric with the ball in his hands. pic.twitter.com/adMbnzYH1k
— Kyle Lindemann (@LuckIsMadeFF) June 20, 2024
But it wasn’t just efficiency that gives us hope for a Year 2 breakout. Spears also graded really well across the board. Per PFF, of running backs with at least 300 receiving snaps, Spears was the best pass-blocking running back in the NFL. That keeps running backs on the field in high-value situations, which leads to high-value touches, which leads to fantasy points.
He also had the third-highest receiving grade behind only Breece Hall and Christian McCaffrey. His 74.6 receiving grade was also significantly higher than Pollard’s (51.4). That matters because new head coach Brian Callahan (former Bengals offensive coordinator) and new offensive coordinator Nick Holz (former Jaguars passing game coordinator) had Joe Mixon and Travis Etienne, respectively, last season.
Both guys were top-6 in receiving snaps with top-17 receiving grades. So, it seems as if these coaches put a lot of value in a well-rounded back. Spears is that guy.
Because of the incredible efficiency metrics and overall high grades he achieved as a rookie, I am betting on a major workload increase for Spears in Year 2. Take a look at some other notable workload increases from Year 1 to Year 2 at the running back position:
9/10 of the biggest RB workload increases (that mattered) have occurred in Year 2.
Largest jumps in Weighted Opportunities/G
[min. 8 games, results in 15+ FPG, 2014-23]1. *James Conner, 2018 [+16.8 WO/G]
2. *Kyren Williams, 2023 [+15.6]
3. *Devonta Freeman, 2015 [+15.4]
4.…— Ryan Heath (@RyanJ_Heath) May 11, 2024
Rashid Shaheed, New Orleans Saints
With Michael Thomas now out of the picture, is this the year we finally see Rashid Shaheed step into a full-time wide receiver role? Saints team reporter Erin Summers seems to believe so based on what she saw at camp:
We'll see how many reps QBs get in training camp, it's mostly been Haener with the 2s and Rattler with the 3s, however Rattler did work with the 2s today in teams. Taking him some time to adjust.
WR2 Rashid Shaheed, WR3 AT Perry. Cedrick Wilson Jr has stood out. #Saints https://t.co/TNaYvIJbjT
— Erin Summers (@ErinESummers) June 12, 2024
All the Saints did at the wide receiver position in the offseason was sign Cedrick Wilson Jr. and Equanimeous St. Brown, while drafting Bub Means out of Pittsburgh in the fifth round. It certainly feels like Shaheed has a strong lock on the WR2 job in New Orleans, especially after hearing what head coach Dennis Allen thinks of second-year wideout A.T. Perry:
#Saints HC Dennis Allen wants to see A.T. Perry work on “everything”:
“There’s a ton of stuff he’s got to improve on.” pic.twitter.com/CBdBlT8CP0
— The Coachspeak Index (@CoachspeakIndex) June 5, 2024
That’s great, he’ll be the WR2. There are plenty of WR2s in the NFL that aren’t set to break out in 2024. So why Shaheed? Well, he’s been really good in the limited playing time he’s seen his first two years in the league. The wide receiver guru himself, Matt Harmon, has put his stamp of approval on this guy multiple times.
Olave occupies two defenders and Shaheed can absolutely roast you downfield in single coverage. This guy can ball. Good play all around by the Saints. https://t.co/SuuWMGCmKX
— Matt Harmon (@MattHarmon_BYB) October 29, 2023
In fact, by the numbers, Shaheed was better than some very good receivers last season in man coverage. He had a higher win rate vs. man coverage (41.3%) than teammate Chris Olave (40.8%), DeVonta Smith (39.8%), and Stefon Diggs (39%). Granted it was on fewer routes, but it just goes to show you Shaheed isn’t just a one-trick pony. And in 2024, he’ll get an opportunity to show he belongs in a tier with some of the top WR2s in the league.
So, why am I so bullish on Shaheed this season? First off, he’s got an average draft position (ADP) of just 104.2 (WR52) on Underdog. Second, the Saints brought in former 49ers passing game coordinator Klint Kubiak to be their offensive coordinator.
Per Fantasy Points Data, the 49ers were the top passing offense against zone and two-high coverage last season. And if Kubiak brings some of his pre-snap motion concepts to New Orleans, it’s wheels up for the top two receivers, Shaheed and Chris Olave.
Final motion report for the 2023 season!
In 2017 NFL teams put a man in motion at the snap 4% of the time, on average. In 2023 the average was 22%!
Data via @ESPNStatsInfo video tracking team. pic.twitter.com/Ar67rJ9yWE
— Seth Walder (@SethWalder) January 16, 2024
Update: Shaheed has battled hamstring and toe injuries throughout training camp. Keep an eye on his injury status heading into your fantasy drafts.
Curtis Samuel, Buffalo Bills
For the first time in forever (*"Frozen" singalong voice*), Curtis Samuel gets to play with an elite quarterback in Josh Allen. He also finds himself in an ambiguous wide receiver room in Buffalo. This should be seen as a good thing, as there’s no solidified pecking order for targets. It’s a bunch of new guys (Keon Coleman, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Mack Hollins) and Khalil Shakir, who played a part-time role the last two seasons.
Samuel has a history with Bills offensive coordinator Joe Brady in Carolina. His best statistical season came in 2020 when Brady was the Panthers offensive coordinator. That year, Samuel averaged 7.8 touches per game (5.1 receptions and 2.7 carries).
Not that it’s an apples-to-apples comparison, but Deebo Samuel Sr. averaged 8.5 touches per game (4.8 receptions and 3.7 carries) when he finished as a top-5 wide receiver in 2021. The point being, Samuel was utilized as a weapon in both the passing game and run game. He also had 12 red-zone rush attempts in 2020 with Brady calling plays.
We tend to think of Samuel as a prototypical slot receiver, and to no fault of our own. More than half of his snaps have come from the slot in the last two seasons in Washington. But according to Jacob Gibbs, he’s actually a very good perimeter receiver as well:
Yards per route run from the perimeter (2022-23)
Curtis Samuel is good! https://t.co/lv4PP9F111 pic.twitter.com/VhcBLdT77C
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) June 14, 2024
With Shakir running 69% of his routes from the slot in 2023, it’s very possible Samuel stays outside more this year than he has in recent years. That’d be golden for his fantasy value. First, it’d keep him on the field for more snaps playing in two-WR sets, and second, it’d increase his average depth of target (aDOT).
From a fantasy perspective, we want as many snaps as possible and we want a diverse route tree. Samuel could very well get that in Buffalo.
Not only does Samuel have a chance at being WR1 in Buffalo, but he’s catching passes from a very accurate quarterback. Per PlayerProfiler, in his four healthy seasons, Samuel had a 4.72 target quality. In comparison, Stefon Diggs had a target quality of 5.96 in four seasons playing with Allen in Buffalo.
Samuel joins a team with 241 vacated targets between Diggs and Gabe Davis and gets to catch passes from one of the best quarterbacks in the league. That’s a recipe for a breakout season, especially when you look at just how good (and underrated) Samuel has been when given the opportunity throughout his career. Although Samuel is dealing with a toe injury this preseason, it shouldn't affect his standing long-term.
Probably nothing, but Curtis Samuel had a career-high 19.7% target share and 1.93 formation adjusted YPRR in 2020 with Joe Brady as his OC in Carolina (via @rotounderworld)
Samuel did that w/ Teddy Bridgewater at QB, now he upgrades to Josh Allen (w/ Brady as his OC again) 👀
— Adam Koffler (@AdamKoffler) June 13, 2024
Jaleel McLaughlin, Denver Broncos
I know, Jaleel McLaughlin was an undrafted free agent that never registered over a 40% snap share in any one game as a rookie. So why is he all of a sudden going to break out in Year 2? Well, first and foremost, he faced an uphill battle to even make the team last season, let alone find his way onto the field for meaningful snaps. Second, he absolutely looked the part when on the field.
McLaughlin had the fifth-highest PFF offensive grade of any running back (minimum 150 snaps) behind just De'Von Achane, Christian McCaffrey, Derrick Henry, and James Conner. Talk about some elite company to be amongst as a rookie.
Additionally, he was fourth among running backs in true yards per carry (5.1) and sixth in both Juke Rate (25.2%) and yards created per touch (4.42). Just look at how this guy turns on the jets while making defenders miss:
Jaleel McLaughlin has the JUICE!pic.twitter.com/OZyHqnK0To
— Adam Koffler (@AdamKoffler) October 8, 2023
Now, he enters Year 2 as a player that has already performed admirably both on paper and with the eye test. What’s more, he was brought in by the Sean Payton regime in 2023. That includes the head coach, offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi, and running backs coach Lou Ayeni.
You’ll recall, Payton was instrumental in developing Alvin Kamara, and Lombardi was instrumental in Austin Ekeler’s development. McLaughlin comps very well to both of these guys as an elite playmaker. And we know Payton wants to get his running backs involved in the passing game. Check this out:
In his rookie year, Alvin Kamara had 100 targets & Saints RBs as a whole had a target share of 33.9% (179 targets)
In Sean Payton’s 1st year in Denver, Broncos RBs had a target share of 32.1%
In 2022 w/o Payton, Broncos RBs had a target share of just 22.6%
Jaleel McLaughlin 🚀
— Adam Koffler (@AdamKoffler) June 23, 2024
It’s hard to imagine Payton hitting on an undrafted free agent like he did with McLaughlin and putting that lightning back in a bottle in Year 2. If anything, he and Lombardi will want to develop that next lightning (Kamara/Ekeler) alongside the thunder in the offense in Javonte Williams. Both can find success, but it’s McLaughlin with the massive upside considering just how well he performed as a rookie.
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